119-HJRES-104 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

What the resolution does and why it’s moving

H.J.Res.104 uses the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to nullify the Bureau of Land Management’s November 20, 2024 Miles City Field Office Record of Decision/Resource Management Plan Amendment that effectively made no acres available for new federal coal leasing in the area. GAO determined the RMPA is a “rule” for CRA purposes, and the GAO opinion was printed in the Congressional Record on June 26, 2025. [7]Congress.gov — Text — H.J.Res.104 (references GAO letter; House passage clause)[8]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision: BLM—Applicability of CRA…[9]Congressional Record / Congress.gov — Congressional Record S3552–S3554: Printin…

• House passed H.J.Res.104 on September 3, 2025, 211–208; the measure arrived in the Senate on September 4. [4]Congress.gov — All Info — H.J.Res.104 (actions and House vote)
• BLM’s earlier decision aligned with Biden‑era planning to end new coal leasing in the Powder River Basin; environmental groups praised it, while industry and western Republicans opposed. [10]Reuters — U.S. proposes end to federal coal leasing in Powder River Basin[11]Associated Press — US proposes ending new federal leases in nation’s biggest co…

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Expect near party‑line behavior, with a few potential GOP outliers; the math still favors passage under CRA’s simple‑majority threshold.

• Public positions indicate the Montana delegation (Daines/Sheehy in Senate; Zinke/Downing in House) is actively whipping for passage, framing the RMPA as a ban on future coal leasing. [5]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines floor remarks urging vote on H.J.Res.104 (…[12]Office of Rep. Ryan Zinke — Zinke/Daines/Sheehy/Downing introduce bicameral CRA…
• Environmental advocates (e.g., Sierra Club and allied groups) urge opposition; mining interests (e.g., National Mining Association) back repeal of the RMPA. [13]Sierra Club — Sierra Club: Biden Administration to End Coal Leasing in Powder R…[14]Web search · turn 3 #2[15]National Mining Association — NMA statement on BLM banning new PRB coal leasing

Key legislators (swing and pivotal)

Who matters for the Senate vote—and why.

• Steve Daines (R‑MT) — Senate point man. He’s driving floor action and messaging that the CRA restores future leasing in eastern Montana; he announced a motion to proceed on October 7. Expect him to secure near‑full GOP unity. [5]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines floor remarks urging vote on H.J.Res.104 (…
• Tim Sheehy (R‑MT) — original Senate co‑lead, aligned with Daines; reinforces in‑state pressure. [12]Office of Rep. Ryan Zinke — Zinke/Daines/Sheehy/Downing introduce bicameral CRA…
• Mike Lee (R‑UT) — Chairs Energy & Natural Resources (ENR), the committee of jurisdiction; posture favors moving the resolution and resisting Democratic amendments (which CRA forbids anyway). [16]Congress.gov — S. Rept. 119-7: ENR Committee (119th) — membership listing (Mike…
• Potential GOP outlier: Susan Collins (R‑ME) — previously broke with her party on an environmental CRA (2017 stream protection rule). Even if she votes no again, Republicans likely still have 52 votes. [17]Politico — Politico: Senate kills Stream Protection Rule; Collins broke with GO…
• Democratic leadership/Senate Dems — Minority Leader Schumer has opposed GOP efforts to use CRA to roll back environmental rules this year; expect him to whip against. [18]Web search · turn 8 #4

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

• Senate control: Republicans hold 53 seats; Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time. CRA gives him a non‑debatable motion to proceed, up to 10 hours of debate, no amendments, and a simple‑majority vote—no cloture needed. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53-47[3]Congressional Research Service / Congress.gov — The Congressional Review Act (C…
• Committee posture: ENR is chaired by Mike Lee with GOP control; committee action or a 30‑senator discharge petition can place the resolution on the calendar. Either route is viable given majority math. [16]Congress.gov — S. Rept. 119-7: ENR Committee (119th) — membership listing (Mike…[3]Congressional Research Service / Congress.gov — The Congressional Review Act (C…
• House posture: GOP leadership (Speaker Mike Johnson; Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman) has already delivered passage and aligned messaging on resource development. [19]U.S. News & World Report / AP — AP/US News: 119th Congress opens; Mike Johnson…[20]Web search · turn 10 #12
• Executive: The White House has signaled willingness to sign CRA rollbacks on environmental policy this year; no veto threat is expected on H.J.Res.104. [6]Roll Call — In CRA first, Senate blocks EPA waivers after procedural change

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Power and procedure favor the resolution.

• Because CRA bars a filibuster and requires only a simple majority, the measure should pass the Senate even with 1–2 GOP defections. [3]Congressional Research Service / Congress.gov — The Congressional Review Act (C…
• The House has already passed the resolution; Senate Republicans are actively advancing it; the President is expected to sign. Net probability of enactment is high. [4]Congress.gov — All Info — H.J.Res.104 (actions and House vote)[5]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines floor remarks urging vote on H.J.Res.104 (…[6]Roll Call — In CRA first, Senate blocks EPA waivers after procedural change

Core sourcing (selected)

• Text/actions/House vote: Congress.gov bill text and all‑info pages. [7]Congress.gov — Text — H.J.Res.104 (references GAO letter; House passage clause)[4]Congress.gov — All Info — H.J.Res.104 (actions and House vote)
• GAO opinion and Congressional Record printing confirming CRA applicability. [8]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision: BLM—Applicability of CRA…[9]Congressional Record / Congress.gov — Congressional Record S3552–S3554: Printin…
• CRA procedures (debate‑limited, simple majority, discharge). [3]Congressional Research Service / Congress.gov — The Congressional Review Act (C…
• Senate control and leadership. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53-47
• Sponsor/lead messaging and floor timing (Daines/Sheehy/Zinke/Downing). [5]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines floor remarks urging vote on H.J.Res.104 (…[12]Office of Rep. Ryan Zinke — Zinke/Daines/Sheehy/Downing introduce bicameral CRA…
• Stakeholder positions: Sierra Club; National Mining Association; major outlet reporting on BLM plan. [13]Sierra Club — Sierra Club: Biden Administration to End Coal Leasing in Powder R…[15]National Mining Association — NMA statement on BLM banning new PRB coal leasing[10]Reuters — U.S. proposes end to federal coal leasing in Powder River Basin[11]Associated Press — US proposes ending new federal leases in nation’s biggest co…