119-SJRES-89 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

What the proposal does: S.J.Res. 89 would use the Congressional Review Act to disapprove BLM’s Buffalo Field Office Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan Amendment (signed Nov 20, 2024). GAO concluded on Sept 18, 2025 that this RMPA is a CRA-covered “rule,” clearing the way for a CRA vote. If enacted, the rule would have no force or effect. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.89 — 119th Congress: Bill overview[2]U.S. GAO — GAO Legal Decision B-337503: CRA applicability to Buffalo RMPA

Policy baseline: The 2024 Buffalo RMPA precluded acceptance of new federal coal lease applications in the planning area through 2038 and designated about 48.12 billion short tons as unavailable for future leasing; it did not cancel existing leases. BLM simultaneously noted that current federal coal leases can support production into approximately 2041. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…[4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…

Topline impacts: Disapproval would likely (a) restore the agency’s ability to accept new lease applications in the Buffalo planning area (subject to remaining court directives and NEPA), (b) modestly improve options for future state and county mineral revenues and mine employment, (c) increase long‑run greenhouse gas and local disturbance risks relative to the 2024 plan, and (d) introduce legal/administrative uncertainty given prior court rulings and CRA’s “substantially the same” constraint. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…[6]Justia (court document) — WORC v. BLM (D. Mont. Aug. 3, 2022) – Order on Buffal…[7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…

Economic Effects

• Leasing pathway: Nullifying the 2024 RMPA would remove the current prohibition on accepting new coal lease applications in the Buffalo Field Office through 2038, potentially restoring a path for additional tracts to be nominated, screened, and sold. Any near‑term volumes would still face market tests and subsequent NEPA/lease‑level reviews. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…
• Scale of resources: The 2024 plan had placed roughly 48.12 billion short tons off-limits; disapproval reopens consideration of that endowment over time, subject to demand and permitting. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…
• Market context: Existing leases already support WY Powder River Basin production into about 2041; therefore, CRA disapproval would not materially change short‑term output. Nationally, EIA expects a temporary uptick in coal output in 2025 within an overall longer‑term decline, limiting the economic upside of new leases. [4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…[8]News result · turn 5 #12
• Wyoming production and jobs baseline: In 2023 Wyoming shipped about 233.6 million short tons of coal, and coal mining employment in the state averaged roughly 3,171 workers—concentrated in Campbell County. New leasing could extend job duration more than expand headcount in the near term. [9]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA Annual Coal Distribution Report (2…[10]Page view · turn 17 #0
• State and local revenues: Additional leasing could generate future bonus bids and royalties (shared with Wyoming) and bolster assessed valuations in coal‑heavy counties; Campbell County’s 2024 taxable valuation remained ~80% minerals, and valuation declines have driven local budget adjustments. [11]Newcastle News Letter Journal (Wyoming News Exchange) — Campbell County assesse…
• Grid and pricing: Given regional coal plant retirements and competition from gas/renewables, any price or reliability effects are likely muted near term; new leasing mainly affects post‑2030 supply optionality rather than immediate generation mix. [8]News result · turn 5 #12

Social Effects

• Coal community stability: Reopening leasing could moderately support longer planning horizons for mines, contractors, and rail, helping communities plan for a slower glidepath rather than sharper declines tied to lease exhaustion. Evidence from county valuation and budgeting shows sensitivity to mineral cycles. [11]Newcastle News Letter Journal (Wyoming News Exchange) — Campbell County assesse…
• State fiscal exposure: Wyoming’s General Fund has become less dependent on mineral revenues (about 28% last year per CREG), but local governments in coal‑centric counties remain exposed; lease-driven revenues could cushion near‑term transitions. [12]SVI News (via Casper Star-Tribune) — ‘King Oil,’ diversity driving changes to s…
• Public health analysis obligations: Courts required BLM to disclose downstream public health impacts of fossil fuel combustion in these plans; disapproval does not erase those judicial directives for future leasing NEPA, implying sustained analytical and mitigation expectations. [6]Justia (court document) — WORC v. BLM (D. Mont. Aug. 3, 2022) – Order on Buffal…

Environmental Effects

• Lifecycle emissions: The 2024 Buffalo RMPA’s no‑new‑leasing posture was chosen to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from federal coal. Disapproval would expand the potential for future combustion emissions relative to that baseline; EIA’s subbituminous factor is ~214 lb CO2 per MMBtu. [4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…[13]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA CO2 emissions factors by fuel (vol…
• Local disturbance and reclamation: Additional leasing increases surface disturbance and eventual reclamation burdens. GAO has warned of challenges managing billions in reclamation financial assurances and identified risks with self‑bonding. [14]U.S. GAO — GAO-18-305: Coal Mine Reclamation—Agencies Face Challenges in Managi…
• Existing leases remain: Because current leases can sustain production into ~2041, near‑term environmental outcomes change little; impacts diverge mainly over the 2030s and beyond as new tracts, if offered and mined, add cumulative disturbance and emissions. [4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…

Temporal Analysis

1. 0–2 years: Limited operational change. Existing leases underpin production; any new leasing would be procedural (nominations, screening, NEPA) with minimal immediate effect on output, employment, or emissions. [4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…
2. Mid‑term (through ~2038): If BLM reopens tracts, lease sales and mine plans could extend production beyond the current runway, affecting local revenues and delaying mine wind‑down timelines. Effects scale with national coal demand, which EIA sees as cyclical short‑term but structurally pressured. [8]News result · turn 5 #12
3. Long‑term (post‑2040): Disapproval could meaningfully alter the region’s post‑2040 coal trajectory by enabling additional extraction otherwise foreclosed, with corresponding long‑horizon emissions and reclamation obligations. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…[14]U.S. GAO — GAO-18-305: Coal Mine Reclamation—Agencies Face Challenges in Managi…

Unintended Consequences

• Signaling risk to investment: A CRA disapproval may chill or complicate future land‑use planning across programs if agencies perceive broader CRA exposure, potentially slowing permitting timetables beyond coal. [7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
• Reclamation funding gap risk: If new leasing proceeds during volatile market conditions, GAO has flagged the systemic risk that insufficient bonding or reliance on self‑bonding can externalize cleanup costs. [14]U.S. GAO — GAO-18-305: Coal Mine Reclamation—Agencies Face Challenges in Managi…

Assessment

Overall stance: Neutral. In the short run, disapproval chiefly restores policy optionality with minimal immediate macro effects; in the long run, it likely increases the probability of additional PRB coal extraction, with corresponding revenue benefits for localities and higher lifecycle emissions and reclamation liabilities relative to the 2024 no‑new‑leasing baseline. Execution risk is high given prior court directives and CRA limits. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision text (S6825–…[4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…[7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…

Sourcing

• Bill and process: Congress.gov entries for S.J.Res. 89 and related House measures; Congressional Record printing of GAO opinion. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.89 — 119th Congress: Bill overview[15]Web search · turn 2 #1
• GAO legal opinions: Buffalo RMPA determined a CRA “rule”; CRA background decisions. [2]U.S. GAO — GAO Legal Decision B-337503: CRA applicability to Buffalo RMPA[16]Web search · turn 10 #2
• Federal Register/BLM: Buffalo RMPA notices (proposed and final availability) and planning-period production runway. [17]Federal Register (archived link) — Federal Register (Nov. 27, 2024): Buffalo RO…[4]Federal Register via Justia — Federal Register notice (May 17, 2024): Buffalo P…
• Energy data: EIA Annual Coal Report (employment, production) and Annual Coal Distribution Report (Wyoming shipments). [18]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA Annual Coal Report 2023 (PDF)[9]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA Annual Coal Distribution Report (2…
• Market context: Reuters coverage of EIA Short‑Term Energy Outlook. [8]News result · turn 5 #12
• Judicial backdrop: District of Montana 2022 order directing BLM to consider no‑leasing and disclose downstream health impacts. [6]Justia (court document) — WORC v. BLM (D. Mont. Aug. 3, 2022) – Order on Buffal…
• Reclamation risk: GAO report on coal mine financial assurances. [14]U.S. GAO — GAO-18-305: Coal Mine Reclamation—Agencies Face Challenges in Managi…
• Local fiscal exposure: Reporting on Campbell County valuation and Wyoming CREG revenue shares. [11]Newcastle News Letter Journal (Wyoming News Exchange) — Campbell County assesse…[12]SVI News (via Casper Star-Tribune) — ‘King Oil,’ diversity driving changes to s…