119-S-1376 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Passage Probability

Bottom line: strong bipartisan, low-cost study authority with home‑state co-sponsors and a House companion. Floor time is the only real choke point right now.

• Rationale: bipartisan sponsors (Tillis R‑NC; Warnock D‑GA; Budd R‑NC), unanimous committee clearance on 10/21/25, and minimal policy/contention (a feasibility study with a one‑year deadline). [7]Congress.gov — Text - S.1376 (119th)[1]U.S. Senate (Sen. Warnock) — Warnock Advances Bipartisan Bill to Establish Nati…
• Institutional landscape favors movement: GOP controls the Senate 53–47 (Thune majority leader) with Boozman chairing Senate Ag; routine study bills often clear by UC when time opens. [3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[4]Senate Agriculture Committee (Majority) — Boozman to Serve as Chairman of Senat…
• House has a same‑day companion (H.R.2768) referred to Natural Resources—positioning for suspension of the rules once the Senate acts. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.2768 (119th): Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail Feasibili…
• Constraint: the ongoing FY26 funding standoff/shutdown is monopolizing floor time; small bills are being queued. [8]AP News — Trump directs Pentagon to ensure troops are paid despite shutdown[9]Washington Post — Senate blocks bills to pay federal workers during shutdown

Procedurally, the Senate can clear S.1376 by unanimous consent or voice vote; otherwise, it would need floor time and, if contested, 60 votes for cloture—both are unlikely hurdles for a noncontroversial study. House passage would likely be under suspension (two‑thirds threshold) via Natural Resources. [10]Wikipedia — Unanimous consent[11]Congress.gov — How Our Laws Are Made – suspension of the rules (House procedure…

Obstacles

• Floor bandwidth during shutdown: leadership is prioritizing CR/appropriations and high‑salience nominations; low‑impact items slide unless hotlined. [8]AP News — Trump directs Pentagon to ensure troops are paid despite shutdown[12]Senate Democratic Caucus — Wrap Up for Monday, October 27, 2025
• Potential single‑senator holds that can derail UC time agreements even on noncontroversial items. [13]Web search · turn 13 #13
• Inter‑chamber timing: House scheduling under a thin GOP majority and a crowded Natural Resources docket can push action into an end‑of‑year or early‑2026 lands “mini‑package.” [5]AP News — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker
• Process scope: the bill only authorizes a feasibility study; any future designation would require a separate Act of Congress, so some members may prefer to batch this with other trails/parks business. [14]LII / Cornell Law School — 16 U.S. Code § 1244 - National scenic and national h…

Short‑Term Consequences (if it moves/fails)

• If the Senate hotlines it post‑shutdown, expect quick UC passage and messaging wins for GA/NC/TN delegations; House can slot it on a Monday/Tuesday suspension calendar. [11]Congress.gov — How Our Laws Are Made – suspension of the rules (House procedure…
• If floor time remains jammed through November, look for bundling into a small bipartisan public‑lands package to conserve floor time. (Inference based on standard end‑game packaging practices.)
• Policy effect upon enactment: directs USDA to complete a feasibility study within 1 year—no designation or land acquisition authority in this bill. [7]Congress.gov — Text - S.1376 (119th)
• If it stalls: negligible policy impact; minimal political downside beyond a missed local ribbon‑cutting opportunity during the shutdown news cycle. [9]Washington Post — Senate blocks bills to pay federal workers during shutdown

Long‑Term Consequences (if enacted)

• USDA (Forest Service) would run the study in consultation with stakeholders; results become the basis for a later designation bill. National scenic/historic trails must be designated by Congress. [14]LII / Cornell Law School — 16 U.S. Code § 1244 - National scenic and national h…
• Practical timeline: with a one‑year study deadline, any designation measure would likely surface in late 2026 or the 120th Congress; passage would then hinge on the next Congress’s floor priorities. [7]Congress.gov — Text - S.1376 (119th)
• Local signaling: modest economic/tourism messaging for GA‑TN‑NC districts; minimal federal fiscal exposure given it’s only a study authorization. (No formal CBO score posted yet.) [2]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail F…

Forecast

1. Most likely: Stand‑alone Senate UC passage in November/December, House suspension soon after; enacted as a discrete bill. Probability ~45%. [2]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail F…[11]Congress.gov — How Our Laws Are Made – suspension of the rules (House procedure…
2. Second path: Added to a small bipartisan lands/parks package moved by UC in the Senate and voice/suspension in the House before adjournment. Probability ~25%.
3. Delay into 2026: Shutdown aftershocks or packed calendars push it to early 2026; still likely to pass. Probability ~20%. [8]AP News — Trump directs Pentagon to ensure troops are paid despite shutdown
4. Low‑probability derailers: a hold tied to unrelated leverage, or leadership triage that lets minor bills lapse until the next Congress. Probability ~10%. [13]Web search · turn 13 #13

Sourcing Notes

• Text/status: Congress.gov pages for S.1376 (text; actions 10/21 ordered reported) and H.R.2768 (companion referral). [7]Congress.gov — Text - S.1376 (119th)[2]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail F…[6]Congress.gov — H.R.2768 (119th): Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail Feasibili…
• Committee and leadership context: Boozman chairing Senate Ag; Senate party division (53–47 R); House speaker site and AP reporting on Johnson’s speakership. [4]Senate Agriculture Committee (Majority) — Boozman to Serve as Chairman of Senat…[3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[15]Web search · turn 1 #1[5]AP News — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker
• Procedure: House suspension of the rules overview; Senate UC/holds background. [11]Congress.gov — How Our Laws Are Made – suspension of the rules (House procedure…[10]Wikipedia — Unanimous consent
• Shutdown timing constraints referenced via AP/Washington Post coverage and Senate floor wraps. [8]AP News — Trump directs Pentagon to ensure troops are paid despite shutdown[9]Washington Post — Senate blocks bills to pay federal workers during shutdown[12]Senate Democratic Caucus — Wrap Up for Monday, October 27, 2025
• Substantive law: National Trails System Act—designation by Act of Congress. [14]LII / Cornell Law School — 16 U.S. Code § 1244 - National scenic and national h…