Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · SJRES 71 Whip Count Analysis

119-SJRES-71 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · SJRES 71 A joint resolution terminating the national emergency declared with respect to energy.

emergency Emergency Management
This joint resolution terminates the national emergency relating to energy declared by the President on January 20, 2025, in Executive Order 14156. The executive order states that the supply...

Bottom line: Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader Thune and ENR Chair Lee, have already defeated an identical termination resolution 47–52 and retain a 53–47 majority. The White House has issued a formal SAP opposing termination and would veto. Even with the National Emergencies Act’s expedited procedures, there is no plausible path to 50+ in the Senate or 2/3 in either chamber. Probability of passage for S.J.Res.71 is low (high confidence). [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10[2]Page view · turn 2 #0[3]American Presidency Project (SAP text) — Statement of Administration Policy: S.…[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus: National Emerge…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
09 Oct 2025
Updated
09 Oct 2025
Tags
whipcount · U.S. Senate · National Emergencies Act
Vetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Institutional context: Republicans control both chambers in the 119th Congress; Senate GOP holds the majority and the House GOP holds a narrow edge. The prior Senate vote on an identical resolution (S.J.Res.10) failed 47–52, strictly along party lines, establishing the baseline. [5]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia[1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10

  • Senate (53 R – 47 D/I): Expect all 47 D/I to support termination (as on 2/26/2025) and all 53 R to oppose; on the prior vote every voting Republican opposed and no Republican crossed. Net: ~47 Yes / 53 No. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10
  • Committee posture: The joint resolution is in Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR), chaired by Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT), with an R majority. While NEA procedures allow discharge after 15 calendar days, the committee chair and GOP majority oppose termination. [6]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (119…[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus: National Emerge…
  • House (R majority): Leadership is aligned with the White House; while a bloc of ~20+ House Republicans has defended some clean‑energy tax credits, that does not translate into support for terminating the President’s energy emergency. Expect near‑unified GOP opposition, Democratic support. [2]Page view · turn 2 #0[7]Reuters — Republicans seek to protect green tax credits in budget bill
  • Administration position: The White House issued a Statement of Administration Policy (SAP) opposing the earlier Kaine/Heinrich resolution; a veto is a near‑certainty if a termination measure reached the President. [3]American Presidency Project (SAP text) — Statement of Administration Policy: S.…
  • Legal/procedural frame: Under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. §1622), termination requires enactment (presentment), not a concurrent resolution; expedited procedures exist but chambers can “otherwise determine” scheduling by recorded vote. [8]LII / Cornell Law School — 50 U.S.C. § 1622 – National Emergencies (termination…[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus: National Emerge…
Senate vote on identical measure (2/26/2025)
47Yea (52 Nay) [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10
Senate party control (119th)
53R seats [5]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia
ENR Committee chair
1Mike Lee (R‑UT) [6]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (119…
S.J.Res.71 cosponsors (as of Sept. 2025)
7Senators [9]Congress.gov — Cosponsors – S.J.Res.71 (119th Congress)
02 · Section

Key legislators (pivotal or watch-list)

Given the prior party‑line vote, realistic pivots are minimal; targets are mostly messaging rather than conversion.

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R‑ME): Moderate with offshore‑wind interests, but voted No on S.J.Res.10. Unlikely to flip absent a major policy concession. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK): Publicly argued Alaska faces an energy emergency and voted No. She reinforced opposition in floor remarks; not a swing. [10]Sen. Lisa Murkowski (official) — Murkowski press release: “In Alaska, We Do Hav…[1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10
  • Senate leadership: Majority Leader John Thune voted No; as floor leader he can pace any renewed vote and keep conference unified. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10[2]Page view · turn 2 #0
  • House moderates (watch list): Reps. Andrew Garbarino (NY‑2), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑1), and a small GOP bloc have defended certain clean‑energy tax credits; they’re persuadable on clean‑energy spending but have shown no public support for terminating the emergency itself. [7]Reuters — Republicans seek to protect green tax credits in budget bill[11]Web search · turn 13 #3
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Leadership alignment and procedural leverage favor opponents of termination.

  • Senate GOP leadership: Thune (Majority Leader) and Barrasso (Whip) voted against termination; ENR Chair Lee is actively opposed. With 53 seats, leadership can defeat a straight up‑or‑down vote again. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10[6]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (119…
  • House GOP leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Whip Tom Emmer control the floor/Rules Committee strategy and align with the White House’s energy agenda. [2]Page view · turn 2 #0
  • White House leverage: Formal SAP against termination and ongoing implementation of EO 14156 (e.g., USACE emergency permitting). Even if a measure cleared both chambers, a veto would require 2/3 in each chamber—well beyond current vote totals. [3]American Presidency Project (SAP text) — Statement of Administration Policy: S.…[12]Federal Register — Executive Order 14156 of January 20, 2025 – Declaring a Nati…[13]U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — USACE Special Public Notice: National Energy Eme…
  • Procedural notes (NEA): Termination resolutions are privileged—committee report in 15 calendar days and floor vote within three, unless the chamber “otherwise determines.” The Senate previously allowed discharge and a floor vote on S.J.Res.10; S.J.Res.71 remains at referral with no subsequent action recorded as of October 9, 2025. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus: National Emerge…[14]Web search · turn 9 #4[15]Web search · turn 3 #2
04 · Section

Interest-group landscape (pressure vectors)

Stakeholders are polarized and map cleanly onto the partisan split.

  • Industry/mining: National Mining Association praised the emergency and frames it as necessary for grid reliability and AI‑driven demand—creating pressure on resource‑state Republicans. [16]National Mining Association — National Mining Association statement praising em…
  • Environmental NGOs: Sierra Club and allied groups support termination and highlighted the party‑line GOP opposition after the February vote—reinforcing Democratic unity but with limited sway over GOP moderates. [17]Sierra Club — Sierra Club: Republicans block effort to end Trump’s energy ‘emer…
  • Litigation backdrop: A multistate AG suit seeks to block the emergency, but that fight is in the courts and does not change congressional whip dynamics. [18]Reuters — Democratic state attorneys general sue to block Trump's energy emerge…
  • Agency implementation signal: USACE districts activated emergency procedures under EO 14156, evidencing the administration’s follow‑through and raising the White House’s veto stakes. [13]U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — USACE Special Public Notice: National Energy Eme…
05 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Document 119-SJRES-71 is functionally a rerun of S.J.Res.10; the coalition lines are hardened and institutional leverage runs against passage.

  • Senate outlook: Near‑certain failure on the floor; expected tally approximates 47–53 against, mirroring the February result. No credible GOP flips have emerged since that vote. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10
  • House outlook: If the Senate somehow passed a termination resolution, House GOP leadership would still likely defeat it on the floor—even with a small bloc of pro‑clean‑energy Republicans—given conference alignment with the President’s energy agenda. [2]Page view · turn 2 #0[7]Reuters — Republicans seek to protect green tax credits in budget bill
  • Veto backstop: The Administration’s SAP and aggressive EO 14156 implementation make a presidential veto a lock; there is no path to 2/3 in either chamber. Overall probability of enactment is low. Confidence: high. [3]American Presidency Project (SAP text) — Statement of Administration Policy: S.…[12]Federal Register — Executive Order 14156 of January 20, 2025 – Declaring a Nati…
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 95 (Feb. 26, 2025) on S.J.Res.10 U.S. Senate
  2. [2] Page view · turn 2 #0
  3. [3] Statement of Administration Policy: S.J.Res.10 – Terminating the National Energy Emergency American Presidency Project (SAP text)
  4. [4] CRS In Focus: National Emergencies Act – Expedited Procedures in the House and Senate Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
  5. [5] 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia Wikipedia
  6. [6] United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (119th) Wikipedia
  7. [7] Republicans seek to protect green tax credits in budget bill Reuters
  8. [8] 50 U.S.C. § 1622 – National Emergencies (termination and procedures) LII / Cornell Law School
  9. [9] Cosponsors – S.J.Res.71 (119th Congress) Congress.gov
  10. [10] Murkowski press release: “In Alaska, We Do Have an Energy Emergency” (Opposes S.J.Res.10) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (official)
  11. [11] Web search · turn 13 #3
  12. [12] Executive Order 14156 of January 20, 2025 – Declaring a National Energy Emergency Federal Register
  13. [13] USACE Special Public Notice: National Energy Emergency (EO 14156) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
  14. [14] Web search · turn 9 #4
  15. [15] Web search · turn 3 #2
  16. [16] National Mining Association statement praising emergency amid reliability warnings National Mining Association
  17. [17] Sierra Club: Republicans block effort to end Trump’s energy ‘emergency’ Sierra Club
  18. [18] Democratic state attorneys general sue to block Trump's energy emergency Reuters

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