119-HR-3831 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill snapshot and status

Measure: H.R. 3831 — Florida Safe Seas Act of 2025. Narrow amendment to Magnuson‑Stevens to extend the existing federal shark‑feeding prohibition to the EEZ off Florida. Sponsor: Rep. Daniel Webster (R‑FL‑11); co-led by Rep. Darren Soto (D‑FL‑9). [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov

• Committee of jurisdiction (House): Natural Resources; Water, Wildlife & Fisheries held a hearing July 22, 2025. [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) testified in support at that hearing; testimony also notes Florida already bans fish/shark feeding in state waters. [3]docs.house.gov — FWC testimony supporting H.R. 3831 (House Natural Resources Su…
• House Natural Resources full committee marked up H.R. 3831 on March 5, 2026, ordering it reported by unanimous consent (awaiting formal report publication on Congress.gov). [1]House Natural Resources (Democrats) — House Natural Resources Democrats — Full…

Breakdown: expected support by party and caucus

This is a parochial, safety‑messaging bill with visible Florida delegation buy‑in and limited budgetary impact. Expect near party‑line Republican support, plus a meaningful Florida‑Dem crossover; non‑Florida Democrats will be more mixed given tourism/diving industry pushback.

• House Republicans: Broad support. The sponsor and four additional Florida Republicans are on the bill (Rutherford, Haridopolos, Bilirakis, Steube). Natural Resources moved it by UC. Expect most GOP coastal and sportsmen‑aligned members to vote yes. [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• House Democrats: Florida Democrat Darren Soto is an original co‑lead; anticipate additional Florida Democrats leaning yes. Opposition most likely from members heeding dive‑industry concerns (DEMA/Shark Stewards). [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• Interest‑group signals: American Sportfishing Association publicly backs the bill; dive industry groups (e.g., DEMA; Shark Stewards) oppose on tourism/science grounds. Net effect: modest bipartisan split anchored in Florida. [5]National Fisherman — National Fisherman — Florida congressmen seek EEZ ban on s…
• Senate Republicans: Favorable environment. GOP holds the majority; Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R‑TX) controls first stop. Florida’s Rick Scott has been active on shark/depredation policy (SHARKED Act), suggesting receptivity. [6]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders list (119th Congress)
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Mixed. Coastal‑tourism concerns and skepticism from diving/conservation NGOs could pull some no/abstain votes; others will see the bill as a state‑consistency safety fix. (No caucus position announced.) [7]DEMA — DEMA Public Policy Digest — concerns with Florida Safe Seas Act

Key legislators and swing votes

Whip focus is Florida‑centric; leadership and committee gatekeepers drive timing more than ideology.

• House frontliners to watch (Florida): Democrats in South Florida tourism districts (e.g., Broward/Palm Beach area) balance dive‑operator concerns against state‑law consistency; Soto (D‑FL‑9) is already on the bill, providing bipartisan cover. [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• House committee influencers: Natural Resources majority has already advanced the bill by UC; watch for whether Rules grants a simple rule versus Suspension of the Rules (2/3 threshold). Markup evidence: ordered reported March 5, 2026. [8]FastDemocracy — FastDemocracy tracking for H.R. 3831 — ordered reported by UC (…
• Senate gatekeepers: Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; Commerce Chair Ted Cruz controls hearings/markups; any hotline/UC path will require no holds from coastal‑tourism state senators. [6]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders list (119th Congress)
• Florida senators: Expect engagement from Sen. Rick Scott given his SHARKED Act push; his backing would ease GOP conference alignment. [9]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Rick Scott) — Sen. Rick Scott press release — SHARK…
• Stakeholder validators: FWC’s supportive testimony and reference to Jupiter Dive Center support provide local cover for yes votes; ASA endorsement is useful with sportsmen’s caucus. [3]docs.house.gov — FWC testimony supporting H.R. 3831 (House Natural Resources Su…

Leadership and procedural dynamics

• House control and floor access: Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) and the Majority Leader team manage floor time; with a narrow GOP majority, leadership can move this via a structured rule or try Suspension if they’re confident on Democratic crossover. [10]House.gov — House.gov — Leadership page (Speaker Mike Johnson)
• Current status suggests the measure is ripening for floor consideration post‑report; the main tactical choice is rule type versus Suspension (2/3). A recorded rule provides a simpler path given organized stakeholder opposition. [8]FastDemocracy — FastDemocracy tracking for H.R. 3831 — ordered reported by UC (…
• Senate control: Republicans hold the majority; Majority Leader John Thune (R‑SD). First stop is Senate Commerce (Chair Ted Cruz). If noncontroversial post‑House passage, a hotline/UC could work late spring/summer; otherwise, a brief markup plus consent agreement. Calendar congestion ahead of the 2026 elections is the principal headwind. [6]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders list (119th Congress)

Assessment: odds and path to passage

Bottom line from a vote‑count and process perspective.

• House outlook: Likely to pass. The Florida delegation’s bipartisan front plus sportsmen‑group support outweigh industry opposition; a simple majority rule is the safer route if Democratic crossover under Suspension is uncertain. [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• Senate outlook: Moderately favorable if the bill arrives before the summer scheduling crunch. GOP majority and Florida‑member interest are positives; the main risk is limited floor time and any UC holds linked to tourism or scientific‑permitting carve‑outs. [6]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders list (119th Congress)
• Possible amendments: scientific‑permit or research carve‑outs; clarifying language on chumming for fishing versus diver provisioning; reporting requirements on enforcement impacts. These are common asks flagged by opponents from the dive community. [7]DEMA — DEMA Public Policy Digest — concerns with Florida Safe Seas Act

Sourcing (selected)

Core, verifiable anchors for positions, status, and institutional context.

• Bill overview, sponsor/co‑sponsors, hearing history (Congress.gov). [2]Library of Congress — All Information (Except Text) for H.R.3831 — Congress.gov
• FWC support testimony (House Subcommittee, July 22, 2025). [3]docs.house.gov — FWC testimony supporting H.R. 3831 (House Natural Resources Su…
• Florida Admin Code — diver fish/shark feeding prohibition in state waters. [4]LII / Cornell Law — Florida Admin. Code 68B-5.005 — Divers: Fish Feeding Prohib…
• Committee markup on March 5, 2026 (committee site; independent trackers show “ordered reported by UC”). [1]House Natural Resources (Democrats) — House Natural Resources Democrats — Full…
• ASA endorsement/reporting; dive‑industry opposition. [5]National Fisherman — National Fisherman — Florida congressmen seek EEZ ban on s…
• House leadership reference (Speaker); Senate majority/leadership; Senate Commerce chair. [10]House.gov — House.gov — Leadership page (Speaker Mike Johnson)
• Related Florida‑senator activity on shark policy (SHARKED Act). [9]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Rick Scott) — Sen. Rick Scott press release — SHARK…