119-HJRES-104 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

What the resolution does: H.J.Res. 104 disapproves BLM’s Miles City Field Office Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan Amendment (ROD/ARMPA) issued Nov. 20, 2024. GAO deemed that action a “rule” under the Congressional Review Act (CRA). If enacted, the ROD/ARMPA would have no force or effect, and BLM would be barred from re‑issuing a rule that is “substantially the same” absent new statutory authorization. [1]Bureau of Land Management — BLM announcement: Notice of Availability of the Rec…[2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B-337163: Applicability of…[7]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 5 U.S.C. § 801 — Congressional review (…

• Substance of the disapproved rule: The 2024 Miles City ARMPA (Alternative D) made zero acres available for new federal coal leasing and marked roughly 1,745,040 acres as unavailable for further consideration. [4]Justia (summarizing Federal Register) — Federal Register notice (summary via Ju…[2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B-337163: Applicability of…[3]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — H.J.Res.104 (119th Congress) — Bill page,…
• Procedural status: Passed the House on September 3, 2025; laid before the Senate on October 7, 2025. [3]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — H.J.Res.104 (119th Congress) — Bill page,…

Economic Effects

Key channels: leasing eligibility, production timelines, revenues, investment signals. Where claims depend on future market behavior, we note uncertainty explicitly.

• Leasing eligibility and acreage: Disapproval would remove the ARMPA’s closure of about 1,745,040 acres to coal leasing consideration in the Miles City planning area, restoring eligibility consistent with prior frameworks. However, the precise “revert‑to” baseline is complicated by prior NEPA deficiencies identified by the court; expect administrative and legal friction before any significant leasing resumes. [2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B-337163: Applicability of…[9]Web search · turn 9 #0
• Production runway already secured: BLM’s own project documents anticipated that, even under the no‑new‑leasing approach, production could continue on existing leases at Spring Creek (to ~2035) and Rosebud/Colstrip (to ~2060). Disapproval mainly affects post‑runway expansion potential rather than near‑term tonnage. [10]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Proposed amendment to Miles City…
• Market headwinds: Powder River Basin output has fallen sharply from ~496 million short tons in 2008 to about 258 million in 2022, reflecting national demand decline. These trends temper the near‑term economic upside of reopening leasing. [5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…
• State and federal revenues: If leasing restarts, potential receipts include federal royalties (generally 12.5% surface/8% underground) shared with Montana, plus Montana’s severance tax (10%–15% of value for most surface coal). Net impacts depend on bid activity, prices, and any evolving federal royalty policies. [11]Bureau of Land Management — BLM Coal Lease Management — fees, rentals, and roya…[12]Montana Department of Revenue — Montana Department of Revenue — Coal Severance…
• Local scale context: The field office manages roughly 2.7 million surface acres and 11.7 million acres of federal coal mineral estate across 16–17 eastern Montana counties, so incremental leasing could concentrate in limited tracts with viable economics. [13]Bureau of Land Management — Miles City Field Office overview (acreage, scope)[14]govinfo (GPO) — Federal Register (May 8, 2023): Draft RMP Amendment & Supplemen…
• Investor signals and optionality: By removing a categorical no‑leasing policy, disapproval could marginally improve project optionality and lender perceptions for mine‑life extensions—but actual capital deployment remains contingent on power‑sector coal demand and rail costs. Evidence points to structural, not cyclical, demand contraction. [15]Web search · turn 4 #1

Social Effects

• Employment stability in the near term: Because existing leases already support production for years, immediate jobs effects in Rosebud and Big Horn counties are likely muted; any jobs gain from new leasing would lag market recovery (if any). BLM cites 18.5 million short tons produced in 2022 by the two operating Miles City‑area mines, illustrating ongoing activity under current leases. [10]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Proposed amendment to Miles City…
• Community revenue streams: Counties and school districts could benefit from any incremental state severance and local gross‑proceeds taxes if new leasing ultimately translates into higher production; conversely, if market headwinds persist, communities may see little change from disapproval alone. [12]Montana Department of Revenue — Montana Department of Revenue — Coal Severance…
• Public health framing: The court required BLM to disclose public‑health impacts (climate and non‑climate) associated with fossil‑fuel combustion in the planning area. Disapproval removes the ARMPA’s climate‑screen approach but does not negate underlying health science; it shifts decisions back into project‑specific reviews and litigation risk. [16]Web search · turn 9 #1[14]govinfo (GPO) — Federal Register (May 8, 2023): Draft RMP Amendment & Supplemen…

Environmental Effects

Contrast is between (a) the ARMPA’s no‑new‑leasing posture and (b) a post‑disapproval landscape permitting new leasing (subject to NEPA and other laws).

• Greenhouse gases: The ARMPA explicitly used a multiple‑use climate criterion and selected an alternative making zero acres available for further consideration, to reduce emissions from development/combustion of federal coal. Disapproval would reopen the possibility of new leases, increasing prospective lifecycle CO2 relative to the ARMPA baseline, though actual emissions depend on future leasing and power‑sector demand. [4]Justia (summarizing Federal Register) — Federal Register notice (summary via Ju…[14]govinfo (GPO) — Federal Register (May 8, 2023): Draft RMP Amendment & Supplemen…
• Order‑of‑magnitude emission factors: Subbituminous PRB coal emits roughly 3,745 lb CO2 per short ton (~1.7 metric tons/ton) when burned, a useful yardstick for any additional tonnage enabled by future leases. [17]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coeffici…
• Land disturbance and habitat: Surface mining footprints and overburden handling drive localized habitat fragmentation and reclamation liabilities; under disapproval, such impacts could expand beyond what would occur under the ARMPA’s no‑new‑leasing scenario. (Magnitude contingent on actual lease uptake and mine plans.) [4]Justia (summarizing Federal Register) — Federal Register notice (summary via Ju…
• No immediate change to existing operations: Even under the ARMPA, existing leases continue to be mined. Thus, disapproval primarily affects the post‑runway horizon rather than near‑term emissions or disturbance. [5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…[6]Associated Press — AP: Proposal to end new federal coal leases in PRB; anticipa…

Temporal Analysis

1. 0–5 years: Minimal operational change. Existing leases sustain production; any new leasing would take years to progress through NEPA, engineering, and market justification. PRB demand trends remain the binding constraint. [5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…[15]Web search · turn 4 #1
2. 5–15 years: If coal power retirements slow or reverse, disapproval could enable incremental lease expansions or new tracts, extending mine lives and associated revenues; if declines continue as CRS/EIA project, leasing optionality may remain largely unexercised. [15]Web search · turn 4 #1
3. 15+ years: The key divergence from the ARMPA is the potential to lease after existing reserves are depleted (beyond roughly 2035/2060). Emissions and land‑use impacts would materially diverge only if new leases are actually issued and mined. [10]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Proposed amendment to Miles City…

Unintended Consequences

• Legal whiplash risk: Because the Miles City and Buffalo plans were previously found NEPA‑deficient, nullifying the 2024 fix may invite further litigation over what baseline governs and how to reconcile court‑ordered analyses with revived leasing eligibility. [9]Web search · turn 9 #0[16]Web search · turn 9 #1
• Revenue volatility: Any fiscal upside from new leasing depends on auction interest, pricing, and federal royalty policy. If policy changes lower effective royalty rates or market prices fall, expected state/federal receipts could underperform. [11]Bureau of Land Management — BLM Coal Lease Management — fees, rentals, and roya…
• Policy signal to capital: Disapproval may improve coal‑sector optionality but also underscores policy cyclicality, which can raise cost of capital and defer commitments pending clarity on demand and regulation. (Inference drawn from mixed market/agency signals.) [5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…

Key Metrics

Sources: ARMPA/GAO acreage; BLM field office scope; Reuters (EIA data) for PRB trends; EIA emissions coefficients; BLM mine‑level timelines and 2022 output. [2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B-337163: Applicability of…[4]Justia (summarizing Federal Register) — Federal Register notice (summary via Ju…[13]Bureau of Land Management — Miles City Field Office overview (acreage, scope)[14]govinfo (GPO) — Federal Register (May 8, 2023): Draft RMP Amendment & Supplemen…[5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…[17]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coeffici…[10]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Proposed amendment to Miles City…

Assessment

Overall stance: Neutral (analytical). In the short run, disapproval is unlikely to change production, employment, or emissions materially because existing leases already span decades and market demand is the primary constraint. The resolution’s most consequential effect is strategic: it reopens the path to future federal coal leasing in eastern Montana and limits BLM’s ability to adopt a similar no‑leasing posture later, shifting long‑term outcomes toward market and future policy choices rather than the 2024 plan’s categorical closure. [10]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Proposed amendment to Miles City…[5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…[7]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 5 U.S.C. § 801 — Congressional review (…

Sourcing Notes

• Primary texts: House joint resolution docket and status; GAO determination that the ROD/ARMPA is a CRA “rule”; BLM notices/press materials and Federal Register summaries documenting the ARMPA alternative and acreage. [3]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — H.J.Res.104 (119th Congress) — Bill page,…[2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B-337163: Applicability of…[1]Bureau of Land Management — BLM announcement: Notice of Availability of the Rec…[14]govinfo (GPO) — Federal Register (May 8, 2023): Draft RMP Amendment & Supplemen…[4]Justia (summarizing Federal Register) — Federal Register notice (summary via Ju…
• Contextual data: National/PRB coal trends (Reuters/AP citing EIA), emissions factors (EIA), and CRA framework/constraints (LII and CRS). [5]Reuters — U.S. proposes ending future coal leasing in Powder River Basin (conte…[6]Associated Press — AP: Proposal to end new federal coal leases in PRB; anticipa…[17]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Coeffici…[7]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 5 U.S.C. § 801 — Congressional review (…[8]Congressional Research Service / Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congr…
• Supplemental congressional record noting 1,745,040 acres excluded from leasing in the Miles City action. [19]Congressional Record / Congress.gov — Congressional Record excerpt noting 1,745…