Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · SJRES 62 Whip Count Analysis

119-SJRES-62 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · SJRES 62 A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management relating to "North Dakota Field Office Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan".

park Public Lands and Natural Resources
This joint resolution nullifies the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) relating to the Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan (RMP) for the North Dakota Field...

Bottom line: The House has already passed the North Dakota BLM RMP disapproval (215–211) and sent it to the Senate. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, CRA’s simple-majority/fast-track procedure, and an Administration SAP endorsing passage, this resolution is highly likely to clear the Senate and be signed. Timing is the main variable, not votes. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)[2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…[4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
08 Oct 2025
Updated
08 Oct 2025
Tags
whipcount · CRA · BLM
Vetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Scope: S.J.Res.62 (Senate) mirrors the House-passed H.J.Res.105 disapproving BLM’s North Dakota Field Office ROD/Approved RMP, which GAO determined is a “rule” under the CRA. [5]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.62 — Bill overview (119th Congress)[1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)[6]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337175: Applicability of the CRA to BLM North Dakota…

  • Senate posture: GOP holds 53 seats; CRA disapprovals pass by simple majority and are not subject to the filibuster. Expect near party‐line Republican support; limited prospects for Democratic crossover. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…
  • House posture: Passed the resolution on September 3, 2025, 215–211; transmitted to the Senate on September 4. Near party‐line. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)
  • Substance at issue: BLM made the North Dakota RMP effective January 8, 2025; GAO ruled on June 25, 2025, that the RMP is a CRA‐covered rule; that GAO opinion was printed in the Congressional Record June 26, 2025. [7]Federal Register / govinfo.gov — Federal Register notice: ND RMP ROD signed Jan…[6]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337175: Applicability of the CRA to BLM North Dakota…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Senate): GAO opinion printed, June 26, 202…
Chamber Status / Whip View Why it looks that way
Senate Likely 51–53 Yea GOP majority (53); CRA’s non‑filibusterable, simple‑majority pathway; Administration support signals unified Republican vote. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…[4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…
House Passed 215–211 (9/3/25) Near party‑line vote; GOP leadership control. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)[9]House.gov — Scalise statement on being re‑elected Majority Leader for 119th Con…
02 · Section

Key legislators and swing considerations

Focus is on members with leverage via jurisdiction, caucus influence, or cross‑pressures from energy development vs. public‑lands politics.

  • Kevin Cramer (R‑ND) / John Hoeven (R‑ND): Senate sponsors; will be primary floor advocates and whip locally affected Republicans. [5]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.62 — Bill overview (119th Congress)
  • Mike Lee (R‑UT): Chair, Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR). Jurisdictional lead over BLM; public indication of GOP control over ENR agenda. [10]Senate ENR Committee — ENR Committee release: Subcommittee assignments; Lee as…
  • Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK): Senior ENR Republican from a resource‑state; typically supportive of development; inclusion on ENR signals alignment more than opposition risk. [11]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: Senate ENR Committee (119th) membership (context on Murk…
  • Dave McCormick (R‑PA), Jim Justice (R‑WV), John Barrasso (R‑WY), Steve Daines (R‑MT): ENR Republicans from energy states; expected supportive bloc. [11]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: Senate ENR Committee (119th) membership (context on Murk…
  • Democrats on ENR to watch (cross‑pressure potential but low pickup odds): John Hickenlooper (CO), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Angus King (I‑ME). Their membership signals they’ll be engaged but caucus alignment likely holds. [12]Web search · turn 7 #1[11]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: Senate ENR Committee (119th) membership (context on Murk…
03 · Section

Leadership stances and procedural leverage

Leadership control plus CRA mechanics largely predetermine the outcome; remaining questions are calendar and sequencing, not 60‑vote math.

  • Senate leadership: John Thune is Majority Leader; Democrats led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Thune controls floor time; CRA allows a non‑debatable motion to proceed and caps debate at 10 hours. [13]Senate.gov — Complete List of Senate Majority & Minority Leaders (shows Thune,…[3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…
  • House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise have already moved the resolution; passage recorded 9/3/25. [14]U.S. News / AP — AP via U.S. News: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker, Jan…[9]House.gov — Scalise statement on being re‑elected Majority Leader for 119th Con…[1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)
  • Administration: A formal Statement of Administration Policy supports H.J.Res.105 (North Dakota RMP) along with related BLM CRA items—indicating signature upon presentment. [4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…
  • Committee gatekeeping: Because the House has already passed H.J.Res.105, the Senate can take up the House‑passed vehicle directly under CRA, bypassing committee referral and using expedited floor procedures. [3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Power, procedure, and positions point in the same direction.

  • Vote outlook: High likelihood the Senate clears the House‑passed H.J.Res.105 with a mostly party‑line GOP majority; expected margin roughly mirrors the 53‑seat Republican conference. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)
  • Procedural feasibility: CRA guarantees a simple‑majority path with limited debate; no filibuster hurdle. [3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…[17]EveryCRSReport.com — EveryCRSReport: Congressional Review Act (procedural summa…
  • Presidential action: The White House SAP endorses passage; signature expected. [4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…
  • Timing: Floor time is the principal risk amid broader funding debates, but CRA’s 10‑hour cap minimizes bandwidth needs once called up. [3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…
Senate GOP seats
53seats
Expected Senate Yea votes
51to 53
House passage margin
4votes (215–211) [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)
Administration SAP
1in support [4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…
05 · Section

Sourcing notes (selected)

Core institutional facts, vote totals, and procedural rules are drawn from official or primary sources; advocacy positions are sourced to state officials and the Federal Register.

  • Text/status: Congress.gov entries for S.J.Res.62 and H.J.Res.105; House vote 215–211 (Sept 3, 2025). [5]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.62 — Bill overview (119th Congress)[1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call)
  • GAO determination B‑337175 (June 25, 2025) and printing in the Congressional Record (June 26, 2025). [6]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337175: Applicability of the CRA to BLM North Dakota…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Senate): GAO opinion printed, June 26, 202…
  • Senate party control and leadership: Senate.gov party division and leaders list. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[13]Senate.gov — Complete List of Senate Majority & Minority Leaders (shows Thune,…
  • CRA floor mechanics: CRS overview and EveryCRSReport summary. [3]CRS / Congress.gov — CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism a…[17]EveryCRSReport.com — EveryCRSReport: Congressional Review Act (procedural summa…
  • BLM ND RMP effective date and Federal Register notice. [7]Federal Register / govinfo.gov — Federal Register notice: ND RMP ROD signed Jan…
  • State/interest positions: North Dakota Governor and Attorney General public statements and litigation. [15]North Dakota Office of the Governor — ND Governor (Burgum) appeal of BLM ND RMP…[16]North Dakota Attorney General — ND Attorney General lawsuit challenging BLM’s N…
  • Leadership context: House Speaker Johnson re‑elected Jan 3, 2025; Scalise Majority Leader statements. [14]U.S. News / AP — AP via U.S. News: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker, Jan…[9]House.gov — Scalise statement on being re‑elected Majority Leader for 119th Con…
  • Executive support: Statement of Administration Policy endorsing H.J.Res.105. [4]American Presidency Project — Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104…
Sources cited
  1. [1] H.J.Res.105 — All Information (status, actions, roll call) Congress.gov
  2. [2] U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress) Senate.gov
  3. [3] CRS: Congressional Review Act Issues; Lookback Mechanism and Effects of Disapproval (Congress.gov) CRS / Congress.gov
  4. [4] Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Res.104–106 (includes H.J.Res.105) American Presidency Project
  5. [5] S.J.Res.62 — Bill overview (119th Congress) Congress.gov
  6. [6] GAO Decision B‑337175: Applicability of the CRA to BLM North Dakota RMP U.S. GAO
  7. [7] Federal Register notice: ND RMP ROD signed Jan. 8, 2025 (effective) Federal Register / govinfo.gov
  8. [8] Congressional Record (Senate): GAO opinion printed, June 26, 2025 (S3556–S3558) Congress.gov
  9. [9] Scalise statement on being re‑elected Majority Leader for 119th Congress House.gov
  10. [10] ENR Committee release: Subcommittee assignments; Lee as Chair, Heinrich Ranking (119th) Senate ENR Committee
  11. [11] Wikipedia: Senate ENR Committee (119th) membership (context on Murkowski, Barrasso, Daines, McCormick, Justice) Wikipedia
  12. [12] Web search · turn 7 #1
  13. [13] Complete List of Senate Majority & Minority Leaders (shows Thune, Schumer for 119th) Senate.gov
  14. [14] AP via U.S. News: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker, Jan. 3, 2025 U.S. News / AP
  15. [15] ND Governor (Burgum) appeal of BLM ND RMP (Dec. 13, 2024) North Dakota Office of the Governor
  16. [16] ND Attorney General lawsuit challenging BLM’s ND RMP (Feb. 25, 2025) North Dakota Attorney General
  17. [17] EveryCRSReport: Congressional Review Act (procedural summary) EveryCRSReport.com

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