119-S-764 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Passage Probability

Rationale in brief: - Chamber control: Republicans hold both chambers; Senate GOP majority keeps the filibuster, setting a 60‑vote bar for floor action. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division — 119th Congress[2]Office of the Senate Majority Leader — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate M… - Gatekeepers: S.764 sits in Senate ENR, chaired by Sen. Mike Lee, with the Public Lands Subcommittee chaired by Sen. Barrasso—both historically skeptical of new wilderness/withdrawals. Yesterday’s subcommittee hearing moves the bill but doesn’t signal majority buy‑in. [1]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resourc…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Public Lands, Forests, and Mining — Subcommittee ro…[5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands… - House posture: Companion H.R. 1728 is parked at Natural Resources, chaired by Rep. Bruce Westerman. With a narrow, factionalized GOP majority, floor time for conservation‑heavy standalones is scarce absent cross‑party swaps. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.1728 (119th): Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act[7]U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Na…[8]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis… - Policy crosswinds: The Administration and congressional GOP have prioritized increasing development on federal lands and rolling back late‑Biden land restrictions—political headwinds for permanent withdrawals/wilderness expansions in CORE. [9]Associated Press — Republicans vote to roll back Biden-era restrictions on mini… - Local politics help but don’t whip votes: The 2025 Rockies poll shows strong CO/West conservation support, but Colorado’s new GOP voices (e.g., CO‑03) emphasize resource development over designations. [10]Colorado College — 2025 State of the Rockies Poll: Conserve, Don’t Drill![11]Office of Rep. Jeff Hurd — Hurd Introduces the Productive Public Lands Act

Obstacles

• Senate math: Majority Leader Thune has reaffirmed the filibuster; without 10+ GOP votes, standalone passage is implausible. [2]Office of the Senate Majority Leader — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate M…
• Committee stance: ENR Chair Lee and Public Lands Subcommittee Chair Barrasso control the markup agenda; a hearing occurred (Dec 2) but no markup is scheduled. [1]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resourc…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Public Lands, Forests, and Mining — Subcommittee ro…[5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands…
• House bottleneck: H.R. 1728 (Neguse) faces a skeptical Natural Resources majority under Westerman; moving a pro‑conservation package requires trade space House leadership currently reserves for partisan priorities. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.1728 (119th): Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act[7]U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Na…
• Competing agenda: GOP leadership and the Administration are advancing energy‑development and land‑use rollbacks (e.g., CRA actions), making new withdrawals/wilderness a hard sell. [9]Associated Press — Republicans vote to roll back Biden-era restrictions on mini…
• Colorado delegation split: While Bennet/Hickenlooper/Neguse push CORE, key Colorado Republicans emphasize "productive" public lands use—dampening prospects for a unified home‑state ask. [12]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet/Hickenlooper/Neguse reintroduce CORE Act…[11]Office of Rep. Jeff Hurd — Hurd Introduces the Productive Public Lands Act

Short‑Term Consequences (next 3–9 months)

• Expect continued placement on hearing agendas and potential staff‑level negotiation of trims (e.g., Curecanti boundary establishment and inter‑agency jurisdiction language) while the wilderness/withdrawal pieces stall. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands…
• Colorado press‑side benefits for sponsors; formal record now includes county/tribal letters from the 12/2 hearing, useful for future packages. [15]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet, Hickenlooper, Neguse Support CORE Act a…
• Administrative status quo holds: Camp Hale monument remains in place; Thompson Divide stays under a 20‑year withdrawal unless altered via new process—codification would provide permanence, but absent that, protections rest on existing orders. [13]U.S. Government Publishing Office — Proclamation 10476—Establishment of the Cam…[14]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Protecti…
• House bandwidth remains tight: with a slim GOP margin and visible intra‑conference strain, leadership will reserve floor time for higher‑priority partisan vehicles. [8]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…[16]Politico — Elise Stefanik vs. Speaker Johnson feud underscores GOP tensions

Long‑Term Consequences (through 2026)

• Most credible path is a late‑2026 bipartisan lands package trading discrete, locally‑vetted conservation items (e.g., Curecanti NRA boundary, technical boundary fixes, select designations) for GOP priorities (forest health, access, permitting tweaks). This mirrors the S.47 model from 2019. [17]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — S.47: Natural Resources Management Act — process an…
• If enacted in full: CORE would permanently withdraw Thompson Divide, expand wilderness/recreation areas, and formalize Curecanti as an NPS unit with updated boundary/coordination authorities—locking in policy now handled by monument/withdrawal actions. [14]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Protecti…[13]U.S. Government Publishing Office — Proclamation 10476—Establishment of the Cam…
• If not enacted: Expect re‑introduction next Congress; polling indicates conservation remains a durable electoral asset in Colorado, sustaining sponsor incentives. [10]Colorado College — 2025 State of the Rockies Poll: Conserve, Don’t Drill!

Forecast

1. Base case (most likely, ~55–60%): Bill advances through hearings but receives no markup or is held at ENR; House takes no action. Outcome: message bill with positioning for a year‑end 2026 package. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands…
2. Secondary (25–30%): Trimmed package—Curecanti boundary/jurisdiction pieces and low‑controversy technical provisions—rides a bipartisan lands package in late 2026. [17]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — S.47: Natural Resources Management Act — process an…
3. Stretch (10–15%): Broader CORE components (limited wilderness additions, selected withdrawals) clear ENR and hitch to a must‑pass vehicle after a cross‑party trade; still requires House sign‑off in a turbulent, narrow majority. [8]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…

Net assessment: Full CORE enactment this Congress ~15%; a narrowed, ‘Curecanti‑first’ slice ~30%. Sponsors should keep committee staff work warm, bank local support into the record, and target a 2026 lands package window. [15]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet, Hickenlooper, Neguse Support CORE Act a…[5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands…

Sourcing (key institutional facts and context)

• Senate/House control, filibuster posture: Senate party division and Thune remarks. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division — 119th Congress[2]Office of the Senate Majority Leader — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate M…
• Committee gatekeepers and hearing: ENR chair/subcommittee rosters and 12/2 agenda; S.764 status on Congress.gov. [1]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resourc…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Public Lands, Forests, and Mining — Subcommittee ro…[5]U.S. Senate — Senate Hearings & Meetings — 12/02/2025 agenda (ENR Public Lands…[18]Congress.gov — S.764 (119th): Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act
• House companion and committee of referral; Natural Resources chair. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.1728 (119th): Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act[7]U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Na…
• Administration/Congressional GOP land‑use direction. [9]Associated Press — Republicans vote to roll back Biden-era restrictions on mini…
• Colorado conservation polling; Colorado GOP delegation posture. [10]Colorado College — 2025 State of the Rockies Poll: Conserve, Don’t Drill![11]Office of Rep. Jeff Hurd — Hurd Introduces the Productive Public Lands Act
• Precedent for bundling (2019 lands package). [17]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — S.47: Natural Resources Management Act — process an…
• Camp Hale proclamation and Thompson Divide withdrawal baseline. [13]U.S. Government Publishing Office — Proclamation 10476—Establishment of the Cam…[14]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Protecti…