119-HR-5078 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: Expected support/opposition by party and caucus

What we know from public positions, committee action, and stakeholder signals.

• House: The bill is bipartisan. Sponsor/cosponsors span R and D (Ogles, Garbarino, Evans; Swalwell; later Vindman). Committee reported 21–1 and the measure is on the Union Calendar (No. 328). Expect a solid cross‑party majority on the floor barring unrelated shutdown leverage. [1]Congress.gov — All Information for H.R.5078 (119th Congress) — actions, cospons…
• House GOP conference: Homeland Security Republicans are publicly supportive (Chair Garbarino backed it in markup communications). Fiscal hawks could press on cost‑share/long horizon, but the committee vote signals limited intraparty resistance. [4]House.gov — Rep. Ogles press release: PILLAR Act passes Homeland Security Commi…[5]House Homeland Security Committee — Homeland Committee: Committee advances Chai…
• House Democrats: Frontliners typically support SLCGP continuity, and national/state-local groups (NGA, NCSL coalition, NACo) are urging reauthorization, giving Democrats cover to vote yes. [6]National Governors Association — NGA: Letter urging Congress to preserve SLCGP[7]National Conference of State Legislatures — NCSL: Coalition supports reauthoriz…[8]National Association of Counties — NACo: Support reauthorization of SLCGP
• Senate: With Republicans holding 53–47 and John Thune controlling floor time, a simple majority exists, but the 60‑vote filibuster applies. Passage likely requires a bipartisan UC or modest amendment package to secure Democrats plus libertarian‑leaning Republicans. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
• Key Senate friction: HSGAC is chaired by Rand Paul, who prioritizes oversight and spending restraint. Expect pressure for tighter accountability, potential guardrails on third‑party recipients, and emphasis on state cost‑share and program sunsets. [9]U.S. Senate — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)
• Program context: SLCGP funding fell to $91.75M in FY2025 with higher non‑federal cost‑share; many SLTTs still value the authorization. These facts bolster bipartisan “keep the lights on” arguments. [10]FEMA.gov — FEMA: SLCGP program page with annual funding totals[11]CISA — CISA: SLCGP key changes (FY2025 cost‑share increase, reduced topline)
• Macro environment: A protracted shutdown/CR fight is crowding floor time; cyber items are being packaged and sequenced. That timing, not policy opposition, is the near‑term bottleneck. [3]Wall Street Journal — Shutdown deal would revive cyber intelligence‑sharing bill

Key legislators and pivotal swing dynamics

Who can move—or stall—the bill, and why.

• House floor: Speaker Mike Johnson sets the floor strategy; Rules Chair Virginia Foxx shapes the rule. With the bill reported and calendared, leadership can move it quickly once shutdown sequencing stabilizes. [1]Congress.gov — All Information for H.R.5078 (119th Congress) — actions, cospons…[12]Web search · turn 1 #16[13]Wikipedia — House Rules Committee (119th): chaired by Virginia Foxx
• House leads: Sponsor Andrew Ogles and Homeland Security Chair Andrew Garbarino are invested; Garbarino’s committee messaging highlights broad stakeholder backing, which helps with undecideds. [4]House.gov — Rep. Ogles press release: PILLAR Act passes Homeland Security Commi…[5]House Homeland Security Committee — Homeland Committee: Committee advances Chai…
• Senate gatekeeper: HSGAC Chair Rand Paul. If he insists on amendments (cost‑share discipline, reporting, third‑party limits), he can delay or force a substitute; his committee portfolio suggests he will emphasize taxpayer accountability. [9]U.S. Senate — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)
• Senate floor: Majority Leader John Thune manages timing and will preserve the 60‑vote threshold; expect him to route a negotiated package that can clear cloture. [14]The Guardian — Senate Republicans elect John Thune as majority leader
• Stakeholder pressure: Governors, state CIOs, counties, and a large cyber‑industry coalition publicly support reauthorization—useful leverage on moderates in both parties. [6]National Governors Association — NGA: Letter urging Congress to preserve SLCGP[7]National Conference of State Legislatures — NCSL: Coalition supports reauthoriz…[8]National Association of Counties — NACo: Support reauthorization of SLCGP[5]House Homeland Security Committee — Homeland Committee: Committee advances Chai…
• Potential skeptics: Some GOP budget cutters align with recent administration pushes to pare back MS‑ISAC and related grants; expect them to seek tighter program language or offsets. [15]Axios — Proposed DHS budget jeopardizes local cyber defenses (MS‑ISAC funding a…[16]Associated Press — Trump administration halts funding for two cybersecurity eff…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where leadership and rules can determine the outcome.

• House procedure: The bill is eligible for floor via a structured rule from Rules. Given the 10‑year authorization and policy adjustments (e.g., ISAOs reference), suspension is less likely. A manager’s amendment can absorb pre‑negotiated tweaks. [1]Congress.gov — All Information for H.R.5078 (119th Congress) — actions, cospons…
• Content signals: The House text broadens eligible activities (OT/AI), adjusts cost‑share incentives, and replaces an explicit MS‑ISAC reference with “Information Sharing and Analysis Organizations.” Those are bargaining chips for Senate edits. [17]Congress.gov — H.R. 5078 text (119th Congress)
• Senate path: HSGAC markup first, then cloture or UC. Expect a skinny authorization with added reporting/guardrails to draw 60 votes. Thune can package with other cyber items (e.g., House WIMWIG/Cyber Act reauth) to create a bipartisan cyber tranche. [5]House Homeland Security Committee — Homeland Committee: Committee advances Chai…[18]Web search · turn 7 #4
• Timing: Ongoing shutdown negotiations are prioritizing near‑term floor time and may push discrete authorizations behind a CR/omnibus or a small cyber package. [3]Wall Street Journal — Shutdown deal would revive cyber intelligence‑sharing bill
• Executive branch context: CISA has shifted SLTT support posture and ended its CIS cooperative agreement, increasing stakeholder demand for a clear statutory runway even as appropriations fell in FY2025. That dynamic helps leadership justify moving the reauth. [19]CISA — CISA alert: Transition in SLTT support; CIS cooperative agreement ending…[10]FEMA.gov — FEMA: SLCGP program page with annual funding totals

Assessment: Likelihood of passage

Bottom‑line whip view under current conditions (as of November 14, 2025).

• House: High likelihood. Committee margin (21–1), bipartisan cosponsors, and placement on the Union Calendar suggest a comfortable majority once leadership schedules time post‑shutdown. [1]Congress.gov — All Information for H.R.5078 (119th Congress) — actions, cospons…
• Senate: Moderate likelihood. Requires a bipartisan deal through HSGAC under Chair Paul and a 60‑vote plan from Thune; expect amendments on cost‑share/accountability and possibly clarifying language around ISAOs/MS‑ISAC. [9]U.S. Senate — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)[14]The Guardian — Senate Republicans elect John Thune as majority leader
• Overall: Moderate likelihood of enactment in this work period if folded into a small cyber package or a DHS/NDAA vehicle; otherwise slips to Q1 2026. [18]Web search · turn 7 #4[3]Wall Street Journal — Shutdown deal would revive cyber intelligence‑sharing bill

Core facts supporting this whip count

Key items documented in public records and reputable reporting.

1. Bill status: Reported 11/12/2025 (H. Rept. 119‑377), Union Calendar No. 328; committee vote 21–1 on 9/3/2025; bipartisan cosponsors including Evans (R‑CO), Swalwell (D‑CA), Vindman (D‑VA). [1]Congress.gov — All Information for H.R.5078 (119th Congress) — actions, cospons…
2. Text highlights: Adds OT/AI, adjusts cost‑share incentives, and substitutes “Information Sharing and Analysis Organizations” for an explicit MS‑ISAC reference. [17]Congress.gov — H.R. 5078 text (119th Congress)
3. Chamber control/thresholds: GOP controls House (approx. 220–215) and Senate (53–47); 60‑vote Senate hurdle remains operative under Thune’s leadership. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
4. Stakeholder support: Coalition letters/statements from NGA, NCSL coalition, and NACo urge reauthorization; Homeland Security Committee highlights broad industry backing. [6]National Governors Association — NGA: Letter urging Congress to preserve SLCGP[7]National Conference of State Legislatures — NCSL: Coalition supports reauthoriz…[8]National Association of Counties — NACo: Support reauthorization of SLCGP[5]House Homeland Security Committee — Homeland Committee: Committee advances Chai…
5. Program context: FY2025 SLCGP total $91.75M; cost‑share increased; many SLTTs rely on the program despite lower toplines. [10]FEMA.gov — FEMA: SLCGP program page with annual funding totals[20]FEMA.gov — FEMA: FY2025 SLCGP Key Changes fact sheet
6. External pressure: Administration‑driven shifts/cuts to MS‑ISAC and related efforts sharpen the case for a clear statutory framework but also fuel fiscal‑hawk scrutiny. [15]Axios — Proposed DHS budget jeopardizes local cyber defenses (MS‑ISAC funding a…[16]Associated Press — Trump administration halts funding for two cybersecurity eff…
7. Scheduling climate: Cyber items are being triaged amid shutdown negotiations; Senate is separately moving a stopgap on cyber‑sharing authorities, indicating leadership attention to cyber in the near term. [3]Wall Street Journal — Shutdown deal would revive cyber intelligence‑sharing bill