Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 240 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-240 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 240 Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act of 2025

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Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act of 2025This bill revises the water rights settlement agreement entered into by the Crow Tribe of Montana and Montana.The Crow Tribe Water Rights...

S.240 has broad, bipartisan tailwinds typical of Indian water-settlement technical fixes, is now on the Senate calendar with a committee report, and faces low procedural risk in the Senate and moderate timing risk in the House. Expected path: UC passage in the Senate; House suspension of the rules if the Natural Resources leadership greenlights. Overall likelihood: high in Senate, moderate-to-high overall pending House floor time. [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
06 Nov 2025
Updated
06 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · tribal-water · Senate-Indian-Affairs
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

Context: S.240 (Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act of 2025) is a technical update to the 2010 Crow settlement. It was reported from Senate Indian Affairs and placed on the Senate Calendar (General Orders) on November 4, 2025 (Cal. No. 260; Rept. 93). Companion H.R.726 is in House Natural Resources. [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…[5]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — Congress.gov overview (sponsor, co…

  • Senate GOP/Dem support: Expect broad bipartisan backing. Indian Affairs bills of this type typically move by unanimous consent (UC) when non-controversial and cost-neutral. S.240’s status and placement indicate leadership clearance for floor consideration. Republicans hold the Senate majority; Thune controls the floor; Indian Affairs is chaired by Murkowski. [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian…
  • Policy/content signals: The measure shifts the settlement to a fund-based structure, clarifies accounts, and extends the Yellowtail Afterbay hydropower window—changes previously supported in the 118th report and by Interior for the prior version, with no increase in authorized funding identified in that report. Those precedents lower ideological friction. [6]Congress.gov (Senate Committee Report) — S. Rept. 118-260 (predecessor Crow ame…[7]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI pending legislation page: S.4442 (Interio…
  • House outlook: Natural Resources is GOP-led (Westerman). Subcommittee gatekeepers for likely referral are the Water, Wildlife & Fisheries Chair (Hageman) and the Indian & Insular Affairs Chair (Hurd). House typically processes such consensus Indian water items on suspension of the rules (two‑thirds required) when committee leadership is aligned. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…
  • Declared/visible positions: Sponsor Sen. Daines and cosponsor Sen. Sheehy (MT) are actively pushing this class of tribal water bills; a bipartisan September letter urged leadership to complete pending settlements/technical amendments—an indicator of cross‑caucus cooperation, including Montana’s House sponsors (Downing, Zinke). [5]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — Congress.gov overview (sponsor, co…[9]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines, Heinrich, Zinke, Fernandez letter urging…[10]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.726 — Congress.gov overview (Downing s…
  • Potential pockets of opposition: No public “notice of intent to object” is posted for S.240, and Congress.gov shows no adverse actions; principal risks are generic—holds over unrelated leverage or objections if any cost estimate surfaces. [11]Web search · turn 3 #1[12]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — all info/status (Congress.gov)
02 · Section

Key legislators (swing/pivotal)

These members have procedural leverage or in‑state equities that make them pivotal to timing and outcome.

  • Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) – Chair, Senate Indian Affairs; she reported S.240 without amendment and controls the committee’s pipeline; her chair role is verified by the committee and she manages UC prep with the leaders. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian…[1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…
  • John Thune (R‑SD) – Senate Majority Leader; sets floor time. Has publicly reiterated keeping the 60‑vote filibuster, which pushes consensus/UC routes for narrow bills like S.240. [13]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…
  • Charles Schumer (D‑NY) – Senate Minority Leader; no stated opposition; minority cooperation is typically needed for UC. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…
  • Steve Daines (R‑MT) – Sponsor; actively championing Montana tribal water items; announced committee advancement March 5 and led a September bicameral letter pressing leadership to move such measures. [14]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Two Daines Bills to Support Montana Tribal Commun…[9]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines, Heinrich, Zinke, Fernandez letter urging…
  • Tim Sheehy (R‑MT) – Cosponsor; aligns the full Montana Senate delegation behind the bill. [5]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — Congress.gov overview (sponsor, co…
  • Mike Johnson (R‑LA) – House Speaker; controls if/when suspension slots are granted; majority is narrow, so leadership tends to reserve suspension time for consensus items with clear bipartisan support. [15]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…
  • Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) – Chair, House Natural Resources; gatekeeper for committee clearance; his Jan. 22 roster shows Water, Wildlife & Fisheries chaired by Hageman and Indian & Insular Affairs chaired by Hurd—both relevant to referral/markup path. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…
  • Harriet Hageman (R‑WY) – Chair, Water, Wildlife & Fisheries; likely subcommittee of referral for water settlements; her docket often carries suspension‑eligible items. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…
  • Jeff Hurd (R‑CO) – Chair, Indian & Insular Affairs; may share jurisdiction or be consulted, depending on drafting and committee strategy. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…
  • Troy Downing (R‑MT‑2) and Ryan Zinke (R‑MT‑1) – House sponsors; their alignment with Daines/Sheehy and participation in the September push improves House optics. [10]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.726 — Congress.gov overview (Downing s…[16]Web search · turn 11 #2
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Where the procedural power sits and how it is likely to be used.

  • Senate: GOP majority; Thune controls floor time; Indian Affairs chair is Murkowski. With S.240 reported and calendared (Cal. No. 260), the next step is either UC passage or time-limited floor consideration; preserving the filibuster sustains the incentive to clear non‑controversial items by consent. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian…[1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…[13]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • House: Speaker Johnson sets the floor; Natural Resources (Westerman) coordinates suspension candidates with the floor team. Suspension requires two‑thirds and is the routine vehicle for low‑controversy Natural Resources items when bipartisan. [15]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…[8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…
  • Executive/agency signals: Interior supported the prior‑Congress version (S.4442) on substance/priorities; BIA FY2025 allocations show ongoing Crow settlement implementation—helpful context but not a formal SAP. [7]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI pending legislation page: S.4442 (Interio…[17]Bureau of Indian Affairs — BIA news: FY2025 investments to fulfill Indian water…
  • Cost/score: Congress.gov shows no posted CBO estimate yet for S.240/H.R.726; the 118th Senate report on the predecessor bill stated the amendments did not increase funding, easing score anxieties. [12]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — all info/status (Congress.gov)[10]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.726 — Congress.gov overview (Downing s…[6]Congress.gov (Senate Committee Report) — S. Rept. 118-260 (predecessor Crow ame…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line from a vote‑count and procedure perspective.

  • Senate likelihood: high. The bill is reported, on the Calendar, and fits the UC pattern for Indian Affairs technical amendments with minimal fiscal controversy. Expect clearance if floor time opens or in a consent package. [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…
  • House likelihood: moderate‑to‑high. Success depends on Natural Resources leadership recommending the bill for suspension and the Speaker slotting it. Two‑thirds threshold is attainable given the bipartisan, Montana‑delegation push, but late‑session bandwidth is the swing factor. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…[9]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines, Heinrich, Zinke, Fernandez letter urging…
  • Overall confidence: moderate‑to‑high that S.240/H.R.726 reach the President this Congress, with sequencing likely Senate‑first by UC, then House on suspension. [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…
Senate control
53R seats (of 100)
Committee status (Senate)
1Reported from Indian Affairs (Nov 4) – Cal. No. 260
S.240 cosponsors
1Sheehy (R‑MT)
House companion
726H.R. (Downing; Zinke co‑sponsor)
CBO estimate posted
0as of Nov 6, 2025
05 · Section

Sourcing (core documents)

Key references used for institutional control, bill status, and procedural context.

  • S.240 bill page and text; status history (Congress.gov). [5]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — Congress.gov overview (sponsor, co…[18]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — bill text (Congress.gov)[12]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — S.240 — all info/status (Congress.gov)
  • Senate Calendar entry showing placement (Cal. No. 260; Rept. 93). [1]GPO — Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Ca…
  • Senate Indian Affairs leadership (Murkowski chair) and organizational release. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian…[19]U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs — Murkowski, Schatz Organizational Meet…
  • Senate/House leadership control (Thune majority leader; Johnson Speaker). [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119t…[15]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…
  • House Natural Resources GOP roster naming Hageman (WWF) and Hurd (Indian & Insular). [8]House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP) — Westerman press release announcing…
  • Prior Congress report on analogous bill (no funding increase stated) and DOI support memo. [6]Congress.gov (Senate Committee Report) — S. Rept. 118-260 (predecessor Crow ame…[7]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI pending legislation page: S.4442 (Interio…
  • BIA FY2025 settlement allocations (context on Crow implementation). [17]Bureau of Indian Affairs — BIA news: FY2025 investments to fulfill Indian water…
  • CRS: House suspension procedure commonly used for non‑controversial bills; two‑thirds threshold. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Pri…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Senate Calendars for November 5, 2025 — General Orders (shows S.240 at Calendar No. 260; Rept. 93) GPO
  2. [2] Chairman — Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (Murkowski listed as Chair, 2025–present) U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs
  3. [3] U.S. Senate: Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (119th Congress leaders) U.S. Senate
  4. [4] CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House: Principal Features (Updated Jan. 6, 2025) Congressional Research Service
  5. [5] S.240 — Congress.gov overview (sponsor, committee, actions) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  6. [6] S. Rept. 118-260 (predecessor Crow amendments; background; no funding increase noted) Congress.gov (Senate Committee Report)
  7. [7] DOI pending legislation page: S.4442 (Interior supported prior Crow amendments) U.S. Department of the Interior
  8. [8] Westerman press release announcing 119th Natural Resources rosters (Hageman, Hurd chairs) House Committee on Natural Resources (GOP)
  9. [9] Daines, Heinrich, Zinke, Fernandez letter urging completion of tribal water settlements (bicameral) Office of Sen. Steve Daines
  10. [10] H.R.726 — Congress.gov overview (Downing sponsor; referral) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  11. [11] Web search · turn 3 #1
  12. [12] S.240 — all info/status (Congress.gov) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  13. [13] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader (commitment to filibuster) Office of Sen. John Thune
  14. [14] Two Daines Bills to Support Montana Tribal Communities Closer to Becoming Law (committee passage) Office of Sen. Steve Daines
  15. [15] Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite dissent Reuters
  16. [16] Web search · turn 11 #2
  17. [17] BIA news: FY2025 investments to fulfill Indian water settlements (includes Crow allocation) Bureau of Indian Affairs
  18. [18] S.240 — bill text (Congress.gov) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  19. [19] Murkowski, Schatz Organizational Meeting naming Murkowski as Chair, Schatz as Vice Chair (119th) U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs

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