Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 2293 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-2293 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 2293 Cormorant Relief Act of 2025

pets Animals
Cormorant Relief Act of 2025This bill requires the Department of the Interior to reissue the depredation order for double-crested cormorants at aquaculture facilities in certain states. (The previous...

House passed H.R. 2293 by voice vote under suspension; Senate Republicans hold the majority and EPW is chaired by Capito. Interior formally supports the bill. Expect EPW to clear it quickly and leadership to hotline for unanimous consent; absent a hold, passage is highly likely this work period. Confidence: high. [1]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (House) — Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 deba…[2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate party division, 119th Congress (2025–2027)[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Con…[4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
11 Dec 2025
Updated
11 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · Senate · EPW
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Snapshot of where votes are likely to land if H.R. 2293 (“Cormorant Relief Act of 2025”) comes to the Senate floor.

  • House signal: cleared on Dec. 9 by voice vote under suspension (two‑thirds threshold), indicating broad bipartisan comfort with the policy. [1]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (House) — Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 deba…
  • Majority math: GOP controls the Senate (53–45–2), so the bill benefits from a friendly majority and committee structure. Cloture still requires 60 unless disposed of by unanimous consent. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate party division, 119th Congress (2025–2027)[5]Politico — Trump won't quit the filibuster fight. Thune can't give him what he…
  • Committee posture: On Dec. 10 the bill was received and referred to Environment & Public Works (EPW), which is chaired by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R‑WV). Expect a favorable markup or direct hotline to the floor. [6]PolicyEngage — PolicyEngage tracker — H.R. 2293 received in Senate and referred…[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Con…
  • Executive position: Interior has formally stated, “The Department supports H.R. 2293,” which lowers veto/Policy Statement risk and gives Republicans and red‑/purple‑state Democrats cover. [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.…
  • Substance alignment: The bill reinstates and updates the aquaculture depredation order while explicitly preserving NEPA and the MBTA—language that helps neutralize procedural/environmental objections. [7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 2293 as reported (NEPA/MBTA rule‑of‑…
  • Interest groups: Strong support from aquaculture/catfish producers (National Aquaculture Association; Catfish Farmers). Bird‑conservation groups (e.g., Audubon) have criticized expanded cormorant lethal control in the past—expect some progressive resistance. [8]National Aquaculture Association — National Aquaculture Association — Action al…[9]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Critique of expanded cormorant‑killing eff…
Senate GOP seats
53
Votes needed to invoke cloture (if needed)
60
EPW status
1referral (Senate) [6]PolicyEngage — PolicyEngage tracker — H.R. 2293 received in Senate and referred…
House passage
1voice vote under suspension (Dec. 9) [1]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (House) — Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 deba…
02 · Section

Key legislators and swing votes

Who has leverage on the path from committee to the floor, and where soft support is most likely.

  • EPW leadership: Chair Capito (R‑WV) and Ranking Member Whitehouse (D‑RI). Capito’s chairmanship and the committee’s GOP majority tilt the markup calendar toward movement. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Con…[10]Wikipedia — Wikipedia — Senate EPW Committee (119th) chair and party split
  • EPW subcommittee of jurisdiction: Fisheries, Wildlife, and Water—Chair Pete Ricketts (R‑NE); Ranking Member Adam Schiff (D‑CA). Ricketts can move a quick subcommittee markup or waive to full committee. [11]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW majority news — Subcommittee assignments for th…
  • Senate champions: Sponsors of the Senate companion (S.1255) include Sens. Cotton (R‑AR), Britt (R‑AL), Hyde‑Smith (R‑MS), Wicker (R‑MS), and Tuberville (R‑AL)—all natural floor and whip allies. [12]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — S.1255 (Senate companion) overview and cosponsors
  • Potential Democratic ‘gets’: Senators from states currently holding special USFWS cormorant management permits—Michigan (Slotkin/Peters), New York (Schumer/Gillibrand), Vermont (Sanders/Welch)—are less likely to mount hard opposition given ongoing state programs; watch for quiet acquiescence or passive UC. (No public commitments yet.) [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.…
  • Possible objectors: A handful of progressive environmental voices (e.g., members aligned with Audubon’s critiques) could place a hold, forcing cloture; not a whip‑level problem if leadership prefers UC but a timing risk. [9]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Critique of expanded cormorant‑killing eff…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where the power sits and the most likely procedural route.

  • Majority Leader: John Thune (R‑SD). Thune’s team typically uses the hotline/UC path for low‑salience, cross‑pressured resource bills; he has also maintained the 60‑vote filibuster posture, so UC is the cleanest route. [13]U.S. Senate (Thune) — Sen. John Thune — Press release: first remarks as Senate…[5]Politico — Trump won't quit the filibuster fight. Thune can't give him what he…
  • Committee gate: EPW Chair Capito controls whether to hold a markup or bypass to the floor via consent; her posture and the southern GOP co‑sponsors suggest she’ll facilitate movement. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Con…[12]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — S.1255 (Senate companion) overview and cosponsors
  • Executive alignment: Interior’s explicit support reduces GOP intra‑caucus friction and makes it easier for red‑/purple‑state Democrats to stay off the brakes. [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.…
  • Policy backdrop that blunts objections: USFWS already operates a special cormorant permit regime post‑2020 EIS; the bill largely restores/expands an older aquaculture depredation tool while preserving NEPA/MBTA obligations. That’s a credible “nothing radical here” message for managers. [14]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS press release (Dec. 22, 2020) — Special pe…[15]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service / Federal Register — Federal Register (Dec. 29, 20…[7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 2293 as reported (NEPA/MBTA rule‑of‑…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line and timing based on current posture.

  • Near‑term timing: Referred to EPW on Dec. 10; look for quick staff‑level clearance and a hotline. If cleared, UC passage can occur within days on the wrap‑up calendar; with a hold, look to early Q1 2026 for a short floor window. [6]PolicyEngage — PolicyEngage tracker — H.R. 2293 received in Senate and referred…
  • Risk factors: a) a progressive hold forcing cloture time; b) last‑minute policy riders if the bill is paired with a package; c) bird‑protection coalition press generating Dem caucus pushback. None appear fatal given text preserves NEPA/MBTA. [9]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Critique of expanded cormorant‑killing eff…[7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 2293 as reported (NEPA/MBTA rule‑of‑…
  • Fallback: If EPW prefers its own vehicle (S.1255), leadership can substitute H.R. 2293’s text or simply take up the House bill to speed enrollment. Either route stays within EPW’s jurisdictional lane. [12]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — S.1255 (Senate companion) overview and cosponsors
05 · Section

Sourcing (selected)

Key public materials underpinning the whip assessment.

  • House passage record (voice vote under suspension, Dec. 9, 2025). [1]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (House) — Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 deba…
  • Senate party division and majority status in the 119th Congress. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate party division, 119th Congress (2025–2027)
  • Majority Leader Thune’s role; current filibuster posture. [13]U.S. Senate (Thune) — Sen. John Thune — Press release: first remarks as Senate…[5]Politico — Trump won't quit the filibuster fight. Thune can't give him what he…
  • EPW chair and subcommittee assignments. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Con…[11]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW majority news — Subcommittee assignments for th…
  • Interior Department statement: “The Department supports H.R. 2293.” [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.…
  • Senate companion S.1255 and co‑sponsors. [12]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — S.1255 (Senate companion) overview and cosponsors
  • Regulatory/NEPA context for cormorant management (2016 vacatur; 2020 rule/EIS). [15]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service / Federal Register — Federal Register (Dec. 29, 20…[14]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS press release (Dec. 22, 2020) — Special pe…
  • Stakeholder alignments (aquaculture support; bird‑conservation critiques). [8]National Aquaculture Association — National Aquaculture Association — Action al…[9]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Critique of expanded cormorant‑killing eff…
  • Referral to EPW after House passage. [6]PolicyEngage — PolicyEngage tracker — H.R. 2293 received in Senate and referred…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Congressional Record (House) — Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 debate and passage (pp. H5076–H5077) Congress.gov
  2. [2] U.S. Senate party division, 119th Congress (2025–2027) Senate.gov
  3. [3] EPW Committee — Chairman Capito overview (119th Congress) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  4. [4] Interior OCL — Statement for the Record on H.R. 2293; Department supports the bill U.S. Department of the Interior
  5. [5] Trump won't quit the filibuster fight. Thune can't give him what he wants. Politico
  6. [6] PolicyEngage tracker — H.R. 2293 received in Senate and referred to EPW (Dec. 10, 2025) PolicyEngage
  7. [7] Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 2293 as reported (NEPA/MBTA rule‑of‑construction) Congress.gov
  8. [8] National Aquaculture Association — Action alert supporting the Cormorant Relief Act (Apr. 4, 2025) National Aquaculture Association
  9. [9] Audubon — Critique of expanded cormorant‑killing efforts National Audubon Society
  10. [10] Wikipedia — Senate EPW Committee (119th) chair and party split Wikipedia
  11. [11] EPW majority news — Subcommittee assignments for the 119th Congress U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  12. [12] Congress.gov — S.1255 (Senate companion) overview and cosponsors Congress.gov
  13. [13] Sen. John Thune — Press release: first remarks as Senate Majority Leader (Jan. 3, 2025) U.S. Senate (Thune)
  14. [14] USFWS press release (Dec. 22, 2020) — Special permit for cormorant management finalized with FEIS U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  15. [15] Federal Register (Dec. 29, 2020) — Cormorant management; court vacated prior depredation orders in 2016 U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service / Federal Register

Discussion