119-HR-3716 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis
119 · HR 3716 Systemic Risk Authority Transparency Act
Finance and Financial Sector
Systemic Risk Authority Transparency Act This bill requires banking regulators to submit a report to Congress in the event of the failure of an insured depository institution that leads to a systemic...
House passed H.R. 3716 by voice under suspension after a 51–0 committee vote; with Republicans controlling both chambers and Tim Scott chairing Senate Banking, the bill is well-positioned for quick Senate clearance by UC or a brief markup, with confidentiality carve‑outs limiting agency and industry objections. Overall passage odds: High; watch for holds over confidential supervisory information and year‑end floor time. [1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…[2]House Financial Services Committee / Congress.gov — House Report 119‑206 — Syst…[3]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader…[4]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott leads active first 100 days as Sena…
01 · Section
Breakdown: party and caucus support
Where it stands now and baseline expectations by chamber and caucus.
- House: Financial Services reported the bill 51–0 on June 10, 2025; the House passed it on December 1, 2025 by voice under suspension. That pattern signals leadership‑blessed, bipartisan support well above a simple majority. [2]House Financial Services Committee / Congress.gov — House Report 119‑206 — Syst…[1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…
- Senate: Republicans hold the majority this Congress; Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs is chaired by Sen. Tim Scott (R‑SC) with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) as Ranking Member. GOP leadership and the Banking gavel give the majority ample agenda control to advance a low‑controversy transparency bill. [3]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader…[4]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott leads active first 100 days as Sena…
- Issue alignment: Both parties have leaned into post‑SVB transparency/oversight around systemic‑risk actions; GAO’s 2025 review kept the topic salient, supplying bipartisan rationale without imposing new guarantees or liabilities. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-107023 — Federal Deposit Insuran…
- Process expectation: With House passage on suspension and no recorded opposition, the most likely Senate path is hotline/UC or quick committee voice. If any senator objects, the majority can still burn limited floor time; the underlying votes are there. [1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…[6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
02 · Section
Key legislators and potential swing actors
Pivotal members based on gavels, portfolio jurisdiction, and leverage.
- Tim Scott (R‑SC), Chair, Senate Banking — can schedule/dispense with a light markup or ask UC to take the House bill. His early‑session posture emphasized oversight and regulator responsiveness, consistent with moving this. [4]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott leads active first 100 days as Sena…[7]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott demands regulators comply with over…
- Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA), Ranking Member, Senate Banking — long‑standing advocate for stronger accountability after 2023 failures; unlikely to oppose transparency deadlines/GAO work. Her buy‑in reduces Democratic holds risk. [8]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Banking Committee approves subcommittee a…
- John Thune (R‑SD), Senate Majority Leader — floor control; has publicly committed to preserving the 60‑vote Senate but routinely clears consensus items by UC. He can prioritize this around year‑end time constraints. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
- Chuck Schumer (D‑NY), Senate Democratic Leader — no public pushback; with Democrats generally pro‑oversight here, he’s unlikely to organize resistance. [9]CNBC — Schumer rejects calls to step down as Senate Democratic leader
- French Hill (R‑AR), Chair, House Financial Services — his chairmanship context and the 51–0 committee vote indicate coordinated, bipartisan House handling; relevant for accepting any Senate tweaks in a quick concur. [10]House Financial Services Committee (Majority) — House Financial Services Commit…[2]House Financial Services Committee / Congress.gov — House Report 119‑206 — Syst…
- Al Green (D‑TX), sponsor — provides Democratic cover; sponsor’s role eases bicameral negotiations if minor confidentiality edits emerge. [1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…
- Outside pressure vectors: Banking industry groups routinely defend confidentiality of supervisory information (CSI); they may press for tighter redactions or timing, but current bill text already contains privilege and redaction protections, lowering opposition intensity. [11]ABA Banking Journal — ABA Banking Journal — ABA/CBA support maintaining confide…[12]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — bill text excerpt showing CSI protections…
03 · Section
Leadership influence and procedure
How leaders and committees can move or modify the bill.
- Chamber control: GOP majorities in both chambers put the scheduling levers with Republican leaders (Speaker Johnson; Sen. Thune). With House passage complete, next stop is Senate referral to Banking and then UC or short floor time. [13]News result · turn 12 #15[6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
- Committee calculus: Senate Banking (Scott/Warren) can forego a full rewrite because the House bill already includes (i) GAO timelines and (ii) agency reports with CSI protections and an extension valve — features that answer predictable agency/industry concerns. That favors a clean pass or surgical edits. [4]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott leads active first 100 days as Sena…[8]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Banking Committee approves subcommittee a…[12]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — bill text excerpt showing CSI protections…
- Floor dynamics: Thune keeps the filibuster; for consensus items he relies on UC. If a privacy/CSI skeptic files a hold, the majority can still clear it with time — and the vote math is not in doubt after the House’s suspension path. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
- Context signal: The Fed’s recent supervisory “transparency/streamlining” posture and GAO’s 2025 systemic‑risk review keep transparency politically safe; neither undercuts the bill’s premise. [14]Web search · turn 10 #1[5]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-107023 — Federal Deposit Insuran…
04 · Section
Assessment: odds and timing
Bottom line on passage prospects.
House committee vote
51yea (0 nay)
House floor disposition
2suspension/voice (passed)
- Likelihood of Senate passage: High. Bipartisan oversight frame; no mandates that trigger pay‑fors; aligns with both parties’ post‑SVB messaging. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-107023 — Federal Deposit Insuran…
- Most likely path: Senate hotline and unanimous consent this month; if crowded calendar or a hold intervenes, first January work period with either Banking voice or direct UC. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
- Potential amendments: Narrowing publication scope of supervisory materials or expanding the 60–90–210‑day timelines. Even with edits, House acceptance on concurrence/suspension is likely given the lopsided House record. [12]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — bill text excerpt showing CSI protections…[1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…
- Key risks: A confidentiality fight (CSI) prompted by industry concerns; or year‑end floor time scarcity. Both are manageable given built‑in privilege/redaction language and the bill’s coalition. [11]ABA Banking Journal — ABA Banking Journal — ABA/CBA support maintaining confide…[12]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — bill text excerpt showing CSI protections…
05 · Section
Sourcing (core references)
Primary references supporting vote history, leadership control, committee jurisdiction, and policy context.
- Congress.gov bill page confirms House passage on Dec. 1 by suspension/voice; sponsor Al Green; and committee history. [1]Library of Congress — H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed Ho…
- House Financial Services report (H. Rept. 119‑206) documents the 51–0 markup and the bill’s design (GAO timelines; agency reporting; CSI protections). [2]House Financial Services Committee / Congress.gov — House Report 119‑206 — Syst…
- Senate majority leadership and posture on floor process (filibuster preserved) — Thune statements. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
- Senate party control and seat margin. [3]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader…
- Senate Banking chair/ranking and committee jurisdiction. [4]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott leads active first 100 days as Sena…[8]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Banking Committee approves subcommittee a…
- Industry stance on maintaining confidentiality of supervisory information (context for possible amendments/holds). [11]ABA Banking Journal — ABA Banking Journal — ABA/CBA support maintaining confide…
- GAO’s 2025 systemic‑risk review providing policy impetus and bipartisan rationale. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-107023 — Federal Deposit Insuran…
Sources cited
- [1] H.R. 3716 — Congress.gov bill overview (status: Passed House; suspension/voice; sponsor) Library of Congress
- [2] House Report 119‑206 — Systemic Risk Authority Transparency Act House Financial Services Committee / Congress.gov
- [3] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; Republicans hold 53-seat majority South Dakota Public Broadcasting
- [4] Scott leads active first 100 days as Senate Banking Chair Senate Banking Committee (Majority)
- [5] GAO-25-107023 — Federal Deposit Insurance Act: Systemic risk exception review (Jan. 23, 2025) U.S. Government Accountability Office
- [6] Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Leader (floor/process posture) Office of Sen. John Thune
- [7] Scott demands regulators comply with oversight requests (oversight posture) Senate Banking Committee (Majority)
- [8] Banking Committee approves subcommittee assignments (Warren as Ranking; membership) Senate Banking Committee (Majority)
- [9] Schumer rejects calls to step down as Senate Democratic leader CNBC
- [10] House Financial Services Committee — Chairman French Hill (official page) House Financial Services Committee (Majority)
- [11] ABA Banking Journal — ABA/CBA support maintaining confidentiality of supervisory determinations ABA Banking Journal
- [12] Congress.gov — bill text excerpt showing CSI protections and timelines Library of Congress
- [13] News result · turn 12 #15
- [14] Web search · turn 10 #1
Discussion