Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 3426 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-3426 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 3426 Courthouse Affordability and Space Efficiency Act of 2025

settings Government Operations and Politics
Courthouse Affordability and Space Efficiency (CASE) Act of 2025This bill provides statutory authority for the General Services Administration (GSA) courtroom sharing policy and limits construction...

H.R. 3426 cleared the House on Sept. 15 by voice under suspension, then was pulled back from the Senate at the House’s request; leadership can repackage and repass quickly, with a likely Senate UC path if no courthouse-state holds emerge. GOP controls both chambers; EPW Chair Capito and T&I Chair Graves have jurisdictional leverage. Judiciary security concerns and GAO’s cost findings shape the messaging but not the math. Overall passage odds once re‑teed up: high, assuming a clean or negotiated manager’s fix. [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)[2]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS – Suspension of the Rul…[3]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders[4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th…[5]Web search · turn 7 #6

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
21 Nov 2025
Updated
21 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · CASE Act · H.R. 3426
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: party-line expectations and caucus posture

Institutional status and recorded actions frame expectations.

  • House: Passed on Sept. 15, 2025 by voice vote under suspension (40 minutes of debate; two‑thirds threshold), signaling broad bipartisan tolerance for the policy. [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)[2]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS – Suspension of the Rul…
  • Senate: Papers were returned to the House on Nov. 19, 2025 by unanimous consent after the House adopted H.Res. 747 to reclaim the bill—procedural, not substantive opposition. Expect minimal partisan friction if text remains narrow. [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)[6]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.Res. 747 (Requesting return of H.R. 3426)
  • Policy substance aligns with long‑standing GAO recommendations to curb overbuilding via courtroom sharing; that history gives fiscal conservatives and many moderates an easy “yes.” [7]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-10-417 – Federal Courthouse Constru…
  • Counter‑pressure: the judiciary emphasizes security and space needs (Design Guide 2021), a point some Senators may amplify; this shapes amendments more than final votes. [8]U.S. Courts — U.S. Courts – U.S. Courts Design Guide (2021 edition)
  • Net: Expect strong Republican support; Democrats largely tolerant given GAO record and the House voice passage. If changes are limited to technical fixes, both leaderships can clear it on suspension/UC time. [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)[9]Web search · turn 12 #0
02 · Section

Key legislators and potential pivots

Gatekeepers and potential objectors (holds) matter more than raw vote counts.

  • House floor: Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise control timing; a suspension slot is available when they choose to re‑queue the bill. [10]Office of the Speaker — Speaker.gov – Speaker Mike Johnson official site[11]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – Member page: Steve Scalise (Majority Leader)
  • House committee: T&I Chair Sam Graves retains the gavel—his buy‑in keeps the measure “clean.” [12]Axios — Axios – House GOP gives surprise waiver to Sam Graves
  • Senate leadership: Majority Leader John Thune can hotline a narrow House bill; Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has little incentive to burn time if the judiciary’s concerns are acknowledged in managers’ language. UC is the default, any one senator can object. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders[9]Web search · turn 12 #0
  • Senate EPW: Chair Shelley Moore Capito is the primary jurisdictional gatekeeper; her posture is decisive for any UC or time agreement. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th…
  • Possible “courthouse‑state” holds tied to GAO‑flagged projects (e.g., Huntsville/Anniston AL; Harrisburg PA; Charlotte NC) could surface—sensitivities for Britt/Tuberville (AL), McCormick/Fetterman (PA), Tillis/Budd (NC). This risk stems from GAO’s modeling list, not public opposition; monitor for state‑specific asks. [13]Web search · turn 8 #1
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Current partisan control simplifies the path if text stays narrow and non‑scorable.

  • Chamber control: Republicans hold both the Senate and the House; Senate Majority Leader Thune and Democratic Leader Schumer are the floor principals. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders
  • Senate path: With EPW supportive or neutral, leadership can clear by unanimous consent; any objection forces floor time or a slim amendment path. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th…[9]Web search · turn 12 #0
  • House path: Because the bill was reclaimed from the Senate via H.Res. 747, leadership can attach tweaks and run it again on a suspension day. [6]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.Res. 747 (Requesting return of H.R. 3426)[2]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS – Suspension of the Rul…
  • Committee leverage: House T&I wrote the report and ran the hearing record; Senate EPW oversight of GSA/public buildings makes it the natural partner—keeping changes within that lane preserves UC viability. [14]GovInfo (GPO) — GovInfo – House Report 119-240 (CASE Act of 2025)[4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th…
04 · Section

Substance shaping votes and amendments

Why most members are comfortable, and where edits may land.

  • Core policy: codifies courtroom‑sharing minimums and conditions new courthouse construction on compliance; orders Design Guide updates within 180 days; requires full utilization or relinquishment of existing space when adding capacity. [15]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – Text of H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)
  • Cost case: GAO estimates 2021 Design Guide changes would increase average project size by ~6% and construction costs by ~12%—a strong fiscal argument for the bill’s constraints. [16]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406 – Courthouse Construction…
  • Hearing record: T&I’s May 20, 2025 hearing (GAO, Judicial Conference, GSA) provides bipartisan cover for cost‑control language. [14]GovInfo (GPO) — GovInfo – House Report 119-240 (CASE Act of 2025)[17]House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure — House T&I (Minority site…
  • Security counter‑case: documented increases in serious threats to judges (USMS data) give judiciary allies leverage to seek flexibility clauses or reporting language. [18]U.S. Marshals Service — U.S. Marshals Service – Protective Investigations: Thre…
05 · Section

Institutional context and bottlenecks

Where process can slip—and how leadership avoids it.

  • House: Suspension requires two‑thirds of those present and voting; prior voice passage suggests the votes are there if text stays narrow. [2]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS – Suspension of the Rul…[1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)
  • Senate: UC is efficient but fragile—one objection derails it; otherwise, time agreements move it without roll calls. [9]Web search · turn 12 #0
  • If UC fails, floor time plus amendment disposal becomes necessary; absent a scoreable budget point of order, this remains a low‑salience lift but competes with higher‑priority floor business. [19]Web search · turn 12 #4
06 · Section

Assessment: odds and timing

Bottom line from a vote‑count and process perspective.

  • Odds: High once leadership re‑queues a revised text—House suspension and Senate UC both viable given prior voice passage and low ideological salience. [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)[9]Web search · turn 12 #0
  • Timing: Fast track is available in December work blocks or early Q1 2026; sequencing depends on whether drafters add a narrow manager’s fix first. [20]Web search · turn 6 #0
  • Confidence: High, contingent on defusing courthouse‑state holds with clarifying language rather than policy retreats. [13]Web search · turn 8 #1
GAO‑estimated average project size increase under 2021 guide
6%
GAO‑estimated average construction cost increase under 2021 guide
12%
Serious threats to federal judges (FY2023)
457incidents
07 · Section

Core sourcing

Key primary sources underpinning this whip count.

  • Congress.gov bill page and actions (House passage; Senate papers returned). [1]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)
  • Bill text (sharing ratios; Design Guide update; utilization clause). [15]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – Text of H.R. 3426 (119th Congress)
  • House committee report and hearing record. [14]GovInfo (GPO) — GovInfo – House Report 119-240 (CASE Act of 2025)[17]House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure — House T&I (Minority site…
  • GAO analysis of Design Guide cost/size effects. [16]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406 – Courthouse Construction…
  • U.S. Courts Design Guide (2021). [8]U.S. Courts — U.S. Courts – U.S. Courts Design Guide (2021 edition)
  • USMS threat statistics. [18]U.S. Marshals Service — U.S. Marshals Service – Protective Investigations: Thre…
  • Leadership/chair confirmations: Senate leaders; EPW chair; House leadership; T&I chair. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders[4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th…[10]Office of the Speaker — Speaker.gov – Speaker Mike Johnson official site[11]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – Member page: Steve Scalise (Majority Leader)[12]Axios — Axios – House GOP gives surprise waiver to Sam Graves
Sources cited
  1. [1] Congress.gov – All Actions for H.R. 3426 (119th Congress) Congress.gov
  2. [2] CRS – Suspension of the Rules in the House: Principal Features Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov)
  3. [3] Senate.gov – Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders U.S. Senate
  4. [4] EPW Committee – Capito to Serve as Chairman (119th Congress) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  5. [5] Web search · turn 7 #6
  6. [6] Congress.gov – H.Res. 747 (Requesting return of H.R. 3426) Congress.gov
  7. [7] GAO-10-417 – Federal Courthouse Construction: Better Planning, Oversight, and Courtroom Sharing Needed U.S. Government Accountability Office
  8. [8] U.S. Courts – U.S. Courts Design Guide (2021 edition) U.S. Courts
  9. [9] Web search · turn 12 #0
  10. [10] Speaker.gov – Speaker Mike Johnson official site Office of the Speaker
  11. [11] Congress.gov – Member page: Steve Scalise (Majority Leader) Congress.gov
  12. [12] Axios – House GOP gives surprise waiver to Sam Graves Axios
  13. [13] Web search · turn 8 #1
  14. [14] GovInfo – House Report 119-240 (CASE Act of 2025) GovInfo (GPO)
  15. [15] Congress.gov – Text of H.R. 3426 (119th Congress) Congress.gov
  16. [16] GAO-25-108406 – Courthouse Construction: Changes to Design Guide Will Increase Size and Costs U.S. Government Accountability Office
  17. [17] House T&I (Minority site) – Hearing: Federal Courthouse Design and Construction House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
  18. [18] U.S. Marshals Service – Protective Investigations: Threat Statistics U.S. Marshals Service
  19. [19] Web search · turn 12 #4
  20. [20] Web search · turn 6 #0

Discussion