119-S-148 DC Insider Procedural Viability Check

Institutional landscape (power and leverage)

Assessing viable paths requires anchoring to the current balance of power and gatekeepers.

• White House: President Donald J. Trump (R); signature assured if it reaches his desk. [7]AP News — Trump inaugurated as 47th U.S. President (Jan. 20, 2025)
• Senate: GOP majority; HSGAC chaired by Rand Paul, with the key “Regulatory Affairs” subcommittee chaired by James Lankford — both ideologically aligned with the bill. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate party division — 119th Congress (Republicans hold maj…[2]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC leadership for the 119th Congress (Chair Rand Paul; s…[3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee memberships (includes Regulatory Affairs…
• House: Speaker Mike Johnson (R) commands a narrow, fractious majority; leadership can move a companion bill but must manage intraconference demands and Senate constraints. [8]Reuters — Mike Johnson reelected House speaker with narrow majority

Bill snapshot (S.148 — RED TAPE Act)

Where the bill sits and what it does.

Number / Chamber

S.148 (Senate-originated)

Sponsor(s)

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), with Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) as original cosponsor

Referral

Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs (HSGAC)

Core provision

Statutorily bars agencies and OMB from considering non‑monetized or unquantified factors in regulatory and benefit‑cost analyses; mandates disclosure and judicial review.

Status

Introduced 1/17/2025; no Senate markup or floor action recorded as of 11/21/2025.

All of the above is reflected on Congress.gov’s bill page and text. [1]Congress.gov — S.148 — RED TAPE Act (119th Congress) — Bill overview[9]Congress.gov — S.148 — RED TAPE Act — Bill text (Introduced in Senate 01/17/202…

House companion: H.R. 572 (Sessions/Hageman) referred to Judiciary and Small Business, creating bicameral hooks but no guarantee of a Senate path. [5]Congress.gov — H.R. 572 — RED TAPE Act (House companion) — Text and referral

Committee climate: HSGAC is chaired by Sen. Rand Paul, with Sen. Lankford chairing the subcommittee that handles regulatory affairs; Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship (SB&E) is chaired by Sen. Ernst, which held a 11/19/2025 hearing themed around regulatory rollback — useful for messaging, not a markup. [2]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC leadership for the 119th Congress (Chair Rand Paul; s…[3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee memberships (includes Regulatory Affairs…[10]U.S. Senate SB&E Committee — Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship — Hearing…

Policy collision: The bill would override elements of OMB’s updated Circular A‑4 (finalized 11/9/2023), which explicitly permits qualitative and non‑monetized impacts; it also implicates EO 14094 (88 FR 21879) governing modernized regulatory review. Expect united Democratic opposition on that basis. [11]The White House (OMB) — OMB announces final guidance to improve regulatory anal…[12]Federal Register (govinfo) — EO 14094 — Modernizing Regulatory Review (88 FR 21…

Procedural Viability Check (by factor)

Scored 0–5; higher is more viable. Notes focus on procedure, vote math, and vehicles.

Composite score and rationale

Why 2/5: Friendly chairs and a House companion help inside the building, but the Byrd Rule forecloses reconciliation and the Senate’s 60‑vote reality means this text, as written, is very unlikely to clear cloture as a stand‑alone; best odds are as narrowed language on an early‑2026 funding vehicle, where it would still be a top target for Democrats in the Senate. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate party division — 119th Congress (Republicans hold maj…[13]Web search · turn 4 #0[5]Congress.gov — H.R. 572 — RED TAPE Act (House companion) — Text and referral[6]Congress.gov — Appropriations Status Table FY2026 — CR through January 30, 2026…

Most plausible procedural paths

Here’s what could work — and what each move would cost in leverage.

1. Appropriations rider (FSGG/omnibus) — Narrow the prohibition to “primary decision metrics must be monetized where feasible” plus transparency requirements (publish RIAs, methodologies, and a monetized/qualitative side‑by‑side). Keeps policy impact but lowers the bite that draws a filibuster. Window: the next funding package before 1/30/2026. [6]Congress.gov — Appropriations Status Table FY2026 — CR through January 30, 2026…
2. HSGAC markup → unanimous or strong party‑line report → hotline a negotiated, narrowed package that codifies disclosure and directs OMB to revise A‑4 parameters without outright banning qualitative factors. This aims to attract a handful of Democrats and ride the Senate consent calendar. [2]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC leadership for the 119th Congress (Chair Rand Paul; s…[3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee memberships (includes Regulatory Affairs…
3. Two‑step: pass the clean House companion (or messaging package) quickly to bank negotiating posture, then trade pieces into a must‑pass conference (e.g., NDAA or a government‑wide policy title). Given NDAA’s bipartisan tradition, expect non‑defense policy riders to be culled late. [14]Web search · turn 7 #3

Vote‑count realities

• Senate: With 53 Rs, you still need at least 7 Democrats or to package language so uncontroversial that it clears in an omnibus. Democrats are dug in around A‑4/EO 14094; any perceived rollback will be opposed. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate party division — 119th Congress (Republicans hold maj…[11]The White House (OMB) — OMB announces final guidance to improve regulatory anal…[12]Federal Register (govinfo) — EO 14094 — Modernizing Regulatory Review (88 FR 21…
• House: Leadership can move a deregulatory package, but endgame leverage is limited by the Senate’s 60‑vote filter and by the need to pass bicameral funding by Jan 30, 2026. Expect robust messaging but ultimate trimming in conference. [8]Reuters — Mike Johnson reelected House speaker with narrow majority[6]Congress.gov — Appropriations Status Table FY2026 — CR through January 30, 2026…

Risks and chokepoints

What will likely sink or shrink the bill.

• Senate cloture math forces material narrowing or a rider strategy; a hard ban on non‑monetized factors is a likely red‑line for Democrats. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate party division — 119th Congress (Republicans hold maj…
• Conflict with OMB A‑4 (final Nov 9, 2023) and EO 14094 ensures united Democratic resistance and OMB pushback in any conference. [11]The White House (OMB) — OMB announces final guidance to improve regulatory anal…[12]Federal Register (govinfo) — EO 14094 — Modernizing Regulatory Review (88 FR 21…
• Calendar compression: with a CR through 1/30/2026, leadership will prioritize only a small set of riders; controversial process changes are usually among the first cut. [6]Congress.gov — Appropriations Status Table FY2026 — CR through January 30, 2026…
• No CBO/JCT score yet; while likely minimal, absence of a favorable score deprives advocates of a budget‑neutrality talking point during rider negotiations. [1]Congress.gov — S.148 — RED TAPE Act (119th Congress) — Bill overview

Actionable intel for advocates

If you want movement, aim for what can pass, not what can be tweeted.

• Pre‑conference draft: Replace the categorical ban with a hierarchy: monetize where feasible; otherwise quantify; require transparent qualitative narrative with uncertainty bounds. Codify publication of RIAs and methodologies — this borrows from A‑4 but tightens consistency.
• Target a short general provision in FSGG appropriations that sunsets in one year and directs OMB/OIRA to issue implementing guidance within 90 days. Time‑limited riders are easier to trade into a CR/minibus. [6]Congress.gov — Appropriations Status Table FY2026 — CR through January 30, 2026…
• Line up HSGAC/Subcommittee hearings with outside validators (former OIRA admins, CBO alumni) to create bipartisan cover for a disclosure‑first compromise. [2]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC leadership for the 119th Congress (Chair Rand Paul; s…[3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee memberships (includes Regulatory Affairs…