119-S-764 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill, status, and institutional context

- Measure: S.764 (Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act) reintroduced by Sens. Bennet and Hickenlooper; House companion H.R. 1728 by Rep. Neguse. Senate hearing held Dec 2, 2025 in the ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mining. [5]Congress.gov — S.764 — Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act (status page)[6]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Public Lands Subcommittee hearing notice (Dec 2…[7]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet/Hickenlooper press release on ENR subcom…[8]Congress.gov — H.R. 1728 — CORE Act (House companion)

• Core provisions: ~420,000 acres of protections (incl. ~71,000 acres wilderness; ~80,000 acres recreation/conservation areas), a permanent Thompson Divide mineral withdrawal with lease‑credit mechanics, Curecanti NRA establishment/boundary, and designations within the 2022 Camp Hale–Continental Divide National Monument. [9]Congress.gov — S.764 — full bill text (key acreage, Thompson Divide credits)
• Context: Camp Hale was designated by presidential proclamation in 2022; DOI finalized a 20‑year administrative withdrawal for the Thompson Divide in April 2024—CORE would codify and make permanent key elements. [10]USDA — President Biden designates Camp Hale–Continental Divide National Monument[11]Office of Sen. John Hickenlooper — Hickenlooper/Bennet/Neguse applaud 20‑year T…
• Chamber control on Dec 4, 2025: Senate GOP majority (53–47); House GOP majority (narrow). The Senate maintains the 60‑vote filibuster threshold under Majority Leader John Thune. [1]U.S. Senate — Senate party division — 119th Congress[12]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[13]CBS News — Balance of power as the 119th Congress convenes
• Committee gatekeepers: ENR chaired by Sen. Mike Lee; Public Lands Subcommittee chaired by Sen. John Barrasso; House Natural Resources chaired by Rep. Bruce Westerman. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Committee — Chairman Mike Lee (official page)[3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments (Barrasso chairs Publi…[14]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce We…

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Grounded in public positions, leadership control, prior voting patterns on lands packages, and committee orientations.

• Senate Democrats/Independents (47): Expect near‑unanimous YES. Sponsors (Bennet/Hickenlooper) and ENR minority leaders have actively promoted the bill; no publicly stated Democratic opposition to CORE this Congress. [7]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet/Hickenlooper press release on ENR subcom…
• Senate Republicans (53): Leadership and key gatekeepers (Lee/Barrasso) emphasize multiple‑use, permitting reform, and curbing conservation‑first rules—signals institutional resistance to new permanent withdrawals/wilderness absent trade‑offs. Stand‑alone GOP support likely limited to a small handful in any given vote. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Committee — Chairman Mike Lee (official page)[3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments (Barrasso chairs Publi…[15]Web search · turn 10 #0
• Filibuster math: Even with unified Democrats, CORE needs roughly 13 Republican votes to clear 60—an implausible whip on a stand‑alone conservation bill under current leadership. [1]U.S. Senate — Senate party division — 119th Congress[12]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• House Democrats: Expect broad support; Colorado Democrats (Neguse, DeGette, Crow, Pettersen) are on the bill. [16]Web search · turn 15 #5
• House Republicans: HNRC Chair Westerman and a caucus prioritizing energy production/BLM rule rollbacks are unfavorable terrain; Colorado Republicans on HNRC (e.g., Boebert, Hurd, Crank) add localized opposition pressure. Likely majority NO unless packaged with GOP wins. [14]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce We…[17]Web search · turn 1 #13

Key legislators and pivots

• Sen. Mike Lee (ENR Chair): Controls agenda; has pushed public‑lands disposal/transfer concepts and Utah road/travel legislation—signals high bar for new designations or withdrawals. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Committee — Chairman Mike Lee (official page)[18]Web search · turn 10 #4[19]Web search · turn 10 #6
• Sen. John Barrasso (Public Lands Subcommittee Chair): Chairs the panel that just heard S.764; long record pressing multiple‑use and opposing recent BLM conservation rules—likely to demand offsets/exchanges. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments (Barrasso chairs Publi…[15]Web search · turn 10 #0
• Sen. Martin Heinrich / Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (ENR Minority / Subcommittee RM): Will drive any Democratic negotiation to keep the package intact or trade selectively. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments (Barrasso chairs Publi…
• Sen. Lisa Murkowski: Not a declared vote on CORE, but her leadership on the 2019 bipartisan lands package (Dingell Act, 92–8; signed by Trump) shows a pathway if assembled into a larger omnibus with cross‑party wins. [20]Web search · turn 13 #2[4]Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski — President Trump signs the 2019 bipartisan lands…
• Colorado delegation: Bennet/Hickenlooper/Neguse are all‑in; Colorado House Republicans on HNRC create committee‑level headwinds. [7]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet/Hickenlooper press release on ENR subcom…[8]Congress.gov — H.R. 1728 — CORE Act (House companion)[17]Web search · turn 1 #13

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

• Senate floor: Majority Leader Thune has affirmed preserving the filibuster; without 60, CORE cannot move alone. Any action will likely be via a negotiated lands package queued for a consent path or a year‑end unanimous‑consent bundle. [12]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• Committee leverage: Under Lee/Barrasso, ENR is prioritizing multiple‑use and energy‑centric bills; S.764 just received a hearing, but no markup is scheduled. Movement would require packaging with items ENR GOP wants (permitting or state‑specific wins). [6]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Public Lands Subcommittee hearing notice (Dec 2…[21]Web search · turn 17 #0
• House filter: Westerman’s HNRC controls the companion (H.R. 1728); with a narrow but real GOP majority, leadership is unlikely to burn floor time on a stand‑alone CORE absent trades. [8]Congress.gov — H.R. 1728 — CORE Act (House companion)[14]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce We…
• Executive context: Key elements are already partly effectuated administratively (Camp Hale designation; 20‑year Thompson Divide withdrawal), reducing immediate pressure to force stand‑alone passage but increasing Democratic resolve to codify permanence. [10]USDA — President Biden designates Camp Hale–Continental Divide National Monument[11]Office of Sen. John Hickenlooper — Hickenlooper/Bennet/Neguse applaud 20‑year T…

Swing considerations and outside pressure

• Colorado/local coalition: Strong, durable in‑state support from counties, business and recreation groups; sponsors highlighted fresh support letters at the 12/2 hearing. This bolsters Democratic unity and provides cover for a package play. [22]The CORE Act Coalition — CORE Act coalition — supporters (local governments, or…[7]Office of Sen. Michael Bennet — Bennet/Hickenlooper press release on ENR subcom…
• Opposition vectors: Oil & gas trade groups have opposed long Thompson Divide withdrawals; motorized‑recreation groups have criticized components (e.g., Sheep Mountain access). Expect these interests to lobby ENR/HNRC Republicans against stand‑alone passage. [23]Colorado Newsline — Report on Thompson Divide withdrawal and industry opposition[24]Trails Preservation Alliance — Motorized recreation groups’ opposition commenta…
• Package precedent: The 2019 Dingell lands package shows that large, state‑balanced deals can clear both chambers—even under a Republican president—if paired with GOP priorities. Strategy should replicate that model. [4]Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski — President Trump signs the 2019 bipartisan lands…

Working whip count snapshot (Dec 4, 2025)

Derived from public positions, caucus control, and committee posture; no closed‑door whip data is available.

Assessment

• Near‑term expectation: Additional hearings/rounds of stakeholder letters; no ENR markup without cross‑party package negotiations. [6]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Public Lands Subcommittee hearing notice (Dec 2…[21]Web search · turn 17 #0
• Most effective timing window: Late 2026 omnibus/“lands mini‑bus” when leadership aggregates state‑specific wins. [4]Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski — President Trump signs the 2019 bipartisan lands…
• Colorado delegation should continue building a bicameral, bipartisan trade—e.g., preserving lease‑credit language (industry sweetener) to neutralize some opposition on Thompson Divide. [9]Congress.gov — S.764 — full bill text (key acreage, Thompson Divide credits)

Primary sourcing notes

- Bill text/status and hearing details from Congress.gov and the ENR committee site; party control/filibuster from Senate records and majority leader statements; House control and committee chairs from official pages; supporter/opposition evidence from coalition and industry sources.

• S.764 status/text; H.R. 1728 companion; ENR hearing (12/2/25). [5]Congress.gov — S.764 — Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act (status page)[9]Congress.gov — S.764 — full bill text (key acreage, Thompson Divide credits)[6]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Public Lands Subcommittee hearing notice (Dec 2…
• ENR chair/subcommittee leadership and orientation; HNRC chair. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Committee — Chairman Mike Lee (official page)[3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments (Barrasso chairs Publi…[14]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce We…
• Chamber control and filibuster position. [1]U.S. Senate — Senate party division — 119th Congress[12]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• 2019 lands‑package precedent (vote and signature). [4]Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski — President Trump signs the 2019 bipartisan lands…
• Administrative context: Camp Hale designation (2022); Thompson Divide 20‑year withdrawal (2024). [10]USDA — President Biden designates Camp Hale–Continental Divide National Monument[11]Office of Sen. John Hickenlooper — Hickenlooper/Bennet/Neguse applaud 20‑year T…
• Stakeholder positions (support and opposition). [22]The CORE Act Coalition — CORE Act coalition — supporters (local governments, or…[23]Colorado Newsline — Report on Thompson Divide withdrawal and industry opposition[24]Trails Preservation Alliance — Motorized recreation groups’ opposition commenta…