119-HRES-812 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support by party and caucus

Context: H.Res. 812 condemns the UN/IMO’s prospective global shipping emissions levy; it was introduced on October 17, 2025, and referred to Foreign Affairs and Ways and Means. Republicans control the House in the 119th Congress. [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.812 (119th Congress) | Congress.gov[5]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Membership of the 119th Congress: A Profile

• Republicans (Conference): Expect broad support. The Administration has explicitly opposed the IMO framework and threatened retaliation, aligning rank‑and‑file and leadership with a “no global tax” message. [3]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE: Joint Statement opposing IMO “Net‑Zero Framewo…
• Republican climate‑moderates (e.g., Climate Solutions Caucus Rs such as Garbarino, Fitzpatrick, Lawler): Some discomfort with attacking a global decarbonization framework, but the text condemns a “global tax,” not decarbonization per se; defections likely minimal. [6]U.S. House (Member site) — Climate Solutions Caucus (House) – roster and leader…
• Democrats (Caucus): Largely opposed. Major industry and environmental stakeholders supportive of an IMO‑wide mechanism will bolster a unified “no” against this condemnation. [7]World Shipping Council — World Shipping Council: Industry welcomes global agree…[8]International Chamber of Shipping — International Chamber of Shipping statement…
• Business split: The World Shipping Council and ICS welcomed a global, uniform measure; the U.S. Chamber of Commerce publicly opposed a global shipping carbon fee—creating cross‑pressures, but party branding likely prevails. [7]World Shipping Council — World Shipping Council: Industry welcomes global agree…[8]International Chamber of Shipping — International Chamber of Shipping statement…[9]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber opposes proposed global shipping carbon…
• Net: On a special rule requiring a simple majority, resolution passes with primarily GOP votes; under suspension (2/3 required), it would likely fail. [10]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House (98‑314)

Key legislators (potential swing or leverage)

Members most likely to matter—either as potential cross‑pressures or as procedural gatekeepers.

• Andrew Garbarino (R‑NY): Co‑chairs the Climate Solutions Caucus; climate‑forward posture could invite a “lean yes/quiet” rather than open opposition. Watch local port/shipper sentiment. [6]U.S. House (Member site) — Climate Solutions Caucus (House) – roster and leader…
• Brian Fitzpatrick (R‑PA): Longstanding climate moderate; only R to oppose H.R.1 (118th) and has backed carbon‑pricing concepts before—possible ‘present’/no if framed as anti‑climate. [11]Web search · turn 15 #13
• Mike Lawler (R‑NY): Climate Solutions Caucus member from a Biden‑won suburb; politically exposed, but likely to follow leadership if the vote is framed as anti‑“UN tax,” not anti‑decarbonization. [6]U.S. House (Member site) — Climate Solutions Caucus (House) – roster and leader…
• Jared Golden (D‑ME): Proven crossover on GOP energy and permitting (backed H.R.1 in 2023); district’s working‑waterfront/shipyard profile creates theoretical openness, but caucus discipline on UN/IMO framing likely keeps him ‘no.’ [12]Washington Post — Washington Post: House GOP energy package passage; Dem crosso…[13]Web search · turn 15 #7
• Vicente Gonzalez (D‑TX) and Henry Cuellar (D‑TX): Have crossed on energy/permitting; represent trade‑heavy South Texas. Still more likely ‘no’ given party framing, but worth a last‑minute outreach. [12]Washington Post — Washington Post: House GOP energy package passage; Dem crosso…
• Procedural gatekeepers: HFAC Chair Brian Mast; Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith; Speaker Mike Johnson; Majority Leader Steve Scalise. They control referral cadence, rule requests, and floor timing. [14]Reuters — Reuters: Johnson taps Crawford for Intel; Mast to chair Foreign Affai…[15]House Ways & Means Committee — Ways & Means: Smith reappointed chairman for 119…[16]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker (119th)[4]Office of the House Majority Leader — Scalise Statement on Being Re‑Elected Maj…

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Leadership alignment and committee leverage will determine timing and threshold.

• Administration: Publicly rejects the IMO “Net‑Zero Framework” as a global carbon tax and threatened retaliation—provides air cover for GOP leadership to expedite the resolution. [3]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE: Joint Statement opposing IMO “Net‑Zero Framewo…
• House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson was reelected; Majority Leader Steve Scalise is in place—expect a rule from the Rules Committee rather than suspension to avoid a 2/3 threshold. [16]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker (119th)[4]Office of the House Majority Leader — Scalise Statement on Being Re‑Elected Maj…
• Committee posture: HFAC (primary referral) and Ways & Means (tax/trade jurisdiction) can move a clean markup or be bypassed via a same‑day rule if leadership wants a rapid messaging vote amid the IMO news cycle. [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.812 (119th Congress) | Congress.gov[15]House Ways & Means Committee — Ways & Means: Smith reappointed chairman for 119…[17]House Committee on Rules — House Rules Committee: Special Rule Process
• Institutional note: As a simple House resolution (H.Res.), it does not go to the Senate or the President—House action alone is dispositive of adoption. [2]U.S. House of Representatives — Bills & Resolutions | house.gov[18]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation
• Backdrop: The IMO’s carbon‑pricing decision was just delayed one year after U.S. pressure; this increases majority appetite to put members on record now. [19]Reuters — Reuters: IMO delays decision on carbon price under U.S. pressure[20]Associated Press — AP: U.S. blocks global fee on shipping emissions; decision d…

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line from a whip perspective.

Given alignment between the White House and House GOP, committee chairs inclined to move it, and the ability to avoid a 2/3 threshold by using a special rule, H.Res. 812 is well‑positioned to pass on a party‑line vote this work period. Senate action is irrelevant for a simple resolution. Confidence: high. [3]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE: Joint Statement opposing IMO “Net‑Zero Framewo…[17]House Committee on Rules — House Rules Committee: Special Rule Process[2]U.S. House of Representatives — Bills & Resolutions | house.gov

Sourcing (selected)

Core references used for positions, process, and institutional context.

• Bill text and referral: Congress.gov H.Res. 812 (Introduced 10/17/2025). [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.812 (119th Congress) | Congress.gov
• Nature of simple House resolutions and Senate’s non‑role: House and Senate official explainers. [2]U.S. House of Representatives — Bills & Resolutions | house.gov[18]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation
• Suspension vs. special rule thresholds/procedure: CRS and Rules Committee. [10]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House (98‑314)[17]House Committee on Rules — House Rules Committee: Special Rule Process
• House control and leadership posts: AP on Johnson’s reelection; Scalise leadership release; CRS membership profile. [16]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker (119th)[4]Office of the House Majority Leader — Scalise Statement on Being Re‑Elected Maj…[5]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Membership of the 119th Congress: A Profile
• Administration stance on IMO framework: DOE joint statement by Rubio/Lutnick/Wright/Duffy. [3]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE: Joint Statement opposing IMO “Net‑Zero Framewo…
• IMO action/status: Reuters/AP reporting on the one‑year delay vote. [19]Reuters — Reuters: IMO delays decision on carbon price under U.S. pressure[20]Associated Press — AP: U.S. blocks global fee on shipping emissions; decision d…
• Stakeholders: World Shipping Council and ICS support for a global mechanism; U.S. Chamber opposition to a global fee. [7]World Shipping Council — World Shipping Council: Industry welcomes global agree…[8]International Chamber of Shipping — International Chamber of Shipping statement…[9]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber opposes proposed global shipping carbon…
• Potential swing profiles: Climate Solutions Caucus roster (Garbarino, Fitzpatrick, Lawler); prior cross‑party energy votes (Golden, Cuellar, Gonzalez). [6]U.S. House (Member site) — Climate Solutions Caucus (House) – roster and leader…[12]Washington Post — Washington Post: House GOP energy package passage; Dem crosso…