119-HR-1687 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Procedural status and context

- Sponsor/contents: H.R. 1687 amends the Geothermal Steam Act to require annual lease sales, replacement sales if canceled, a minimum share of nominated parcels offered, and timelines for drilling permits. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov – All Info for H.R. 1687 (sponsor, cosponsor…

• Recent movement: On Apr. 21, 2026, the House Natural Resources Committee marked up and advanced H.R. 1687; committee materials and press statements list the bill and describe passage at markup. [1]U.S. House Committee Repository — Docs.House.gov – Natural Resources markup (Ap…
• Congress.gov’s All‑Info page still shows the bill at “Introduced” status as of its latest refresh, so official report posting may lag; rely on the committee’s docket for real‑time status. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov – All Info for H.R. 1687 (sponsor, cosponsor…
• Agency backdrop: BLM guidance already pushes state offices to hold annual geothermal lease sales under current law (which requires at least once every two years where nominations exist). The bill codifies/ratchets that practice and adds permit‑deadline language. [3]Bureau of Land Management — BLM Instruction Memorandum IM‑2026‑004 – Promoting…

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Institutional composition and recent voting patterns drive the coalition math.

• House Republicans: Broad support expected. The measure aligns with GOP priorities on domestic energy and permitting; the bill is reported out by a Republican‑run committee and championed by Chair Bruce Westerman. [4]House Natural Resources (GOP) — House Natural Resources Committee press release…
• House Democrats: Limited but real crossover from Western delegations; Rep. Susie Lee (D‑NV) is a listed cosponsor. Expect more cautious or oppositional posture from conservation‑oriented members given mandated parcel offerings. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov – All Info for H.R. 1687 (sponsor, cosponsor…
• Senate Republicans: Favorable. GOP controls 53 seats and the Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) gavel; Barrasso’s committee is the gate for public‑lands energy policy. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Party Division by Congress (shows GOP majority 53 in…
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Select moderates from Western states are plausible “yes” votes given strong geothermal interest (e.g., Hickenlooper–Daines geothermal push; Murkowski–Cortez Masto next‑gen geothermal roadmap), but caucus environmental concerns about offering most nominated parcels and compressed timelines remain a brake. [6]Office of Sen. John Hickenlooper — Sen. Hickenlooper press release – Bipartisan…
• Interest groups: ClearPath Action backs H.R. 1687; Geothermal Rising’s committee testimony is supportive of streamlining; National Taxpayers Union urged a “yes” at markup. Counter‑pressure comes from conservation advocates wary of mandated lease‑offer shares. [7]ClearPath Action — ClearPath Action – CLEAN Act (H.R. 1687) explainer/support

Key legislators and pivotal votes

• House floor coalition: Sponsor Russ Fulcher (R‑ID) with Chair Westerman (R‑AR) as chief advocate; bipartisan signal from cosponsors Maloy (R‑UT), Boebert (R‑CO), Lee (D‑NV), Begich (R‑AK). [4]House Natural Resources (GOP) — House Natural Resources Committee press release…
• House leadership/levers: Speaker Mike Johnson controls floor time; Natural Resources is aligned; the narrow GOP majority heightens attendance/absentee risk on close votes. [8]Office of the Speaker of the House — Speaker.gov – Official site of Speaker Mik…
• Senate gatekeepers: Majority Leader John Thune schedules floor action; ENR Chair John Barrasso controls hearings/markups; bipartisan geothermal champions likely courted for a glide path (e.g., Heinrich; Hickenlooper; Cortez Masto). [9]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release – First remarks as Se…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

• House: With Republicans in control, the bill’s best path is a structured rule via Rules Committee as part of a small energy package; the committee has already moved geothermal bills to the floor this spring. [10]House Natural Resources (GOP) — House Natural Resources press release – House p…
• Senate: Republicans hold the majority, but the 60‑vote filibuster threshold persists; Thune has publicly committed to preserving it, so bipartisan buy‑in or packaging is the likely path. [11]Associated Press — AP News – Thune pledges to preserve the filibuster as new Ma…
• Committee leverage: ENR Chair Barrasso can advance a narrow geothermal title; Western Democrats’ visible geothermal activity creates negotiating space for a UC package if objections are addressed (e.g., parcel‑offering language or NEPA timelines). [12]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Committee on Energy & Natural Resources membership (…

Assessment: whip count and likelihood of passage

• House outlook: Moderate‑to‑high likelihood if scheduled (clear GOP support; at least some Democratic crossover from Western states). Risk hinges on floor time and amendments; best window late spring/early summer 2026 alongside other geothermal items. [4]House Natural Resources (GOP) — House Natural Resources Committee press release…
• Senate outlook: Moderate path, most plausible via inclusion in a bipartisan public‑lands/energy mini‑package or UC if holds are cleared; standalone consideration would require at least several Democratic/Independent votes. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Party Division by Congress (shows GOP majority 53 in…
• Net: Passage is plausible this Congress with packaging; standalone across both chambers is harder given Senate rules and conservation‑side concerns about mandated parcel offerings and deadlines. [13]catf.us

Sourcing notes

• Committee status and docket sourced to the committee event page, press release, and Congressional Record weekly schedule; Congress.gov’s All‑Info page has not yet reflected the May reporting activity as of the latest crawl. [1]U.S. House Committee Repository — Docs.House.gov – Natural Resources markup (Ap…
• Institutional control and leadership verified via Senate.gov party table, Leader Thune’s office, Speaker’s official site, House press resources, and ENR committee roster. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – Party Division by Congress (shows GOP majority 53 in…
• Policy backdrop and stakeholder positions referenced from BLM program guidance and industry/advocacy materials (ClearPath, Geothermal Rising, NTU; conservation critiques). [3]Bureau of Land Management — BLM Instruction Memorandum IM‑2026‑004 – Promoting…