Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 338 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-338 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 338 Every Drop Counts Act

water_drop Water Resources Development
Every Drop Counts ActThis bill expands the Bureau of Reclamation's Small Storage Program, which is a grant program for small surface water or groundwater storage projects in certain western...

Bipartisan, Western‑water authorizing tweak with low ideological heat has a viable House path if Natural Resources moves it quickly; Senate path hinges on ENR courtesy and a 60‑vote floor or packaging. GOP controls both chambers; Johnson/Thune agendas and the preserved filibuster make a small, non-controversial water title or year‑end lands/water package the most realistic vehicle. [1]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…[2]U.S. Senate (Sen. Thune office) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majori…[3]AP News — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pledge to pre…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
21 Nov 2025
Updated
21 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · House Natural Resources · Senate ENR
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

What we know from public positions, committee rosters, and official bill history.

  • House Republicans: Favorable baseline given committee of referral and Western GOP co-sponsors (Valadao, Fulcher, Simpson). Subcommittee is chaired by Harriet Hageman; full committee by Bruce Westerman. Expect broad support from Western conference members if costs stay within existing IIJA small‑storage parameters. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)[5]govinfo.gov — GovInfo hearing transcript header listing Hageman/Hoyle leadershi…[6]House Natural Resources (majority) — Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resourc…
  • House Democrats: California moderates (Gray, Harder) are already on the bill. Expect additional Valley and Southwest Democrats to be gettable given groundwater‑recharge framing and state‑law protections in text; progressive opposition signal is limited so far in the record. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 338 text (as introduced)
  • Senate Republicans: Control the chamber; ENR is chaired by Mike Lee with Water & Power chaired by John Hoeven. Western GOP on ENR/Water & Power typically back Reclamation‑side authorizations; no obvious conference‑level red flags. [2]U.S. Senate (Sen. Thune office) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majori…[8]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments release (Lee/Heinrich)[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…
  • Senate Democrats/Independents: Western Ds on Water & Power (Wyden ranking; Cortez Masto, Hickenlooper, Padilla, Gallego) are natural negotiators. Support likely if House text maintains groundwater and state‑law guardrails. [9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 338 text (as introduced)
  • Interest groups/beneficiaries: Western water agencies and ag districts are actively engaging the IIJA Small Storage Program; ACWA and others are pushing NOFO participation. That lobbying environment tilts pro‑bill. [10]U.S. Bureau of Reclamation — Bureau of Reclamation Small Storage Program (progr…[11]Association of California Water Agencies — ACWA notice: Small Storage Program f…
02 · Section

Key legislators (pivots and why)

Gatekeepers and credible swing votes, with evidence.

  • Rep. Harriet Hageman (R‑WY): Chairs the Water, Wildlife & Fisheries Subcommittee that just held the Nov. 19 legislative hearing. Controls whether H.R. 338 gets a subcommittee markup. [5]govinfo.gov — GovInfo hearing transcript header listing Hageman/Hoyle leadershi…[12]Congress.gov — House Subcommittee hearing notice for H.R. 338 (Nov. 19, 2025)
  • Rep. Bruce Westerman (R‑AR): Chairs full Natural Resources; decides on full‑committee markup and packaging with other water items. [6]House Natural Resources (majority) — Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resourc…
  • Rep. Jim Costa (D‑CA): Sponsor; organized a bipartisan Valley recharge push, indicating active coalition‑building beyond committee. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)[13]Web search · turn 11 #6
  • Reps. David Valadao (R‑CA) and Russ Fulcher (R‑ID): Original co‑sponsors from water‑reliant districts; signal cross‑partisan Western support. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)
  • Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R‑PA) and Rep. Mike Simpson (R‑ID): Fitzpatrick adds moderate GOP cover; Simpson brings senior GOP Western/Approps credibility. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)
  • Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT): As ENR chair, controls Senate committee agenda; courtesy to House Western priorities would ease path. [14]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (ove…
  • Sen. John Hoeven (R‑ND): Chairs ENR’s Water & Power Subcommittee; friendly venue for a quick Senate hearing/markup. [9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…
  • Sen. Ron Wyden (D‑OR): Ranking on Water & Power; key to securing bipartisan staff agreement to speed floor clearance or UC. [9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

How top leaders and chamber rules shape the path.

  • House: Speaker Mike Johnson runs a narrow GOP majority. If Westerman reports the bill clean, it’s a candidate for a low‑drama rule or inclusion in a Natural Resources package; Johnson has been willing to move consensus policy while husbanding floor time. [1]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…
  • Senate: Republicans run the floor with John Thune as Majority Leader and are keeping the 60‑vote filibuster. That pushes small authorizations toward unanimous consent or packaging in a larger bipartisan lands/water title. [2]U.S. Senate (Sen. Thune office) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majori…[3]AP News — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pledge to pre…
  • Committee leverage: House WWF Subcommittee held the legislative hearing on Nov. 19, 2025—an essential predicate to markup. Parallel Senate processing would run through ENR and likely Water & Power. [12]Congress.gov — House Subcommittee hearing notice for H.R. 338 (Nov. 19, 2025)[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…
  • Likely vehicle: Committee packaging has been a recurring Johnson‑era tactic in Natural Resources. Expect H.R. 338 to hitch a ride on a broader water/lands package rather than burn a solo Senate floor hour. [15]Politico — Natural Resources plans May 6 markup of its portion of GOP megabill
04 · Section

Assessment: whip count and odds

Bottom line as of November 21, 2025.

  • House vote outlook: Moderate‑to‑high likelihood if the bill is marked up clean and paired with other low‑controversy resource items. Bipartisan co‑sponsor mix (4R/2D listed on Congress.gov to date) is a favorable tell. [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)
  • Senate vote outlook: Moderate if cleared by ENR and packaged; a standalone floor attempt faces the 60‑vote hurdle, which leadership has explicitly preserved. Western Ds and Rs on Water & Power provide a plausible bipartisan core. [9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…[3]AP News — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pledge to pre…
  • Most likely path: Attach to a Natural Resources or cross‑committee lands/water package moving in early 2026, or catch a year‑end omnibus. Committee packaging precedent this Congress supports that read. [15]Politico — Natural Resources plans May 6 markup of its portion of GOP megabill
  • Risks: Calendar squeeze (appropriations/tax vehicles crowd out floor time), cost score surprises if CBO flags program‑extension implications, or a hold from a senator objecting to Reclamation authorities. (No CBO estimate posted yet.) [16]Web search · turn 5 #6
  • Overall likelihood of enactment this Congress: Moderate confidence. The policy is narrow, Western, and already inside existing IIJA architecture—good characteristics for inclusion when a vehicle appears. [7]Congress.gov — H.R. 338 text (as introduced)[10]U.S. Bureau of Reclamation — Bureau of Reclamation Small Storage Program (progr…
House co-sponsors on H.R. 338 (to date)
6members
Status
1subcommittee hearing held (Nov. 19, 2025)
Senate floor threshold (non‑reconciliation)
60votes
05 · Section

Key sourcing (selected)

Primary, official, and major-outlet references used in this whip count.

  • H.R. 338 bill page, cosponsors, actions, and hearing listing (Congress.gov). [4]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act)
  • H.R. 338 text (authority extension; eligibility; state‑law savings clause). [7]Congress.gov — H.R. 338 text (as introduced)
  • House Subcommittee hearing notice (Nov. 19, 2025) and venue. [12]Congress.gov — House Subcommittee hearing notice for H.R. 338 (Nov. 19, 2025)
  • House Natural Resources chairman page (Westerman). [6]House Natural Resources (majority) — Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resourc…
  • Subcommittee roster identifying Chair Hageman. [5]govinfo.gov — GovInfo hearing transcript header listing Hageman/Hoyle leadershi…
  • Senate leadership and rules posture (Thune majority; filibuster preserved). [2]U.S. Senate (Sen. Thune office) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majori…[3]AP News — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pledge to pre…
  • Senate ENR and Water & Power leadership/membership. [8]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR subcommittee assignments release (Lee/Heinrich)[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair…
  • House control/Speaker Johnson context. [1]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…
  • Program context for IIJA Small Storage (Reclamation site). [10]U.S. Bureau of Reclamation — Bureau of Reclamation Small Storage Program (progr…
  • Committee packaging precedent this Congress. [15]Politico — Natural Resources plans May 6 markup of its portion of GOP megabill
Sources cited
  1. [1] Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dissent Reuters
  2. [2] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader U.S. Senate (Sen. Thune office)
  3. [3] New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pledge to preserve filibuster AP News
  4. [4] All Info - H.R.338 (Every Drop Counts Act) Congress.gov
  5. [5] GovInfo hearing transcript header listing Hageman/Hoyle leadership (WWF Subcommittee) govinfo.gov
  6. [6] Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resources Committee House Natural Resources (majority)
  7. [7] H.R. 338 text (as introduced) Congress.gov
  8. [8] ENR subcommittee assignments release (Lee/Heinrich) U.S. Senate ENR Committee
  9. [9] ENR Water & Power Subcommittee page (members; chair/ranking) U.S. Senate ENR Committee
  10. [10] Bureau of Reclamation Small Storage Program (program parameters; NOFO) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
  11. [11] ACWA notice: Small Storage Program funding opportunity for members Association of California Water Agencies
  12. [12] House Subcommittee hearing notice for H.R. 338 (Nov. 19, 2025) Congress.gov
  13. [13] Web search · turn 11 #6
  14. [14] United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (overview; chair) Wikipedia
  15. [15] Natural Resources plans May 6 markup of its portion of GOP megabill Politico
  16. [16] Web search · turn 5 #6

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