119-HJRES-104 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Passage Probability

Bottom line probability of enactment (Senate passage + presidential signature): 80–90%. Rationale below.

• Senate control and floor status: GOP holds the majority (53–47 incl. two I’s caucusing with Democrats) and the Senate has already adopted the motion to proceed to H.J.Res. 104 (50–47), invoking CRA’s 10‑hour cap and simple‑majority threshold. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)
• White House posture: A formal Statement of Administration Policy explicitly “strongly supports” H.J.Res. 104 and says advisers would recommend the President sign it. [3]WhiteHouse.gov — White House OMB – Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Re…
• Procedural tailwind: Under the Congressional Review Act, once on the Senate floor, debate is limited to 10 hours, amendments are barred, and passage requires only a simple majority. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Focus IF10023 – The Congressional Revie…[5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…
• Context/precedent: CRA success rates are highest at the start of unified government; 2025 lookback covers late‑2024 rules like the Miles City RMPA. [6]Ballotpedia — Ballotpedia – Congressional Review Act
• House posture: The resolution already passed the House on September 3, 2025, 211–208, and was messaged to the Senate September 4. [2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)

Obstacles

What could still derail or delay it.

• Attendance/defections: With a nominal GOP majority, more than three Republican absences/defections could jeopardize final passage; however, leadership already secured the motion to proceed, narrowing risk to last‑mile vote management. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)
• Calendar compression: October floor time is crowded, but CRA’s 10‑hour cap and non‑amendable structure minimize the scheduling burden; leadership can finish quickly once debate time is run. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Focus IF10023 – The Congressional Revie…
• Window management: CRA action must occur within the statute’s review period; the November 20, 2024 rule is squarely within the 2025 lookback, and the Senate is already on it. [6]Ballotpedia — Ballotpedia – Congressional Review Act[2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)
• Senate committee friction: If needed, 30 senators can discharge a committee after 20 calendar days; here, leadership has already brought the measure to the floor, making discharge moot. (Jurisdiction: Senate Energy & Natural Resources, chaired by Sen. Mike Lee.) [5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…[7]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Heinrich, Lee A…

Short-Term Consequences

If enacted this month, what happens next.

• Immediate legal effect: CRA nullifies the Miles City RMPA and bars re‑issuance of a “substantially the same” rule absent new statutory authority. Practically, BLM would treat the 2024 RMPA as if it never took effect. [5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…[8]Web search · turn 5 #10
• Substance at issue: The 2024 RMPA made no acres available for coal leasing and rendered 1,745,040 acres unavailable for further consideration. Voiding it reopens the path to consider leasing proposals in the Miles City planning area. [9]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 Summary & Overview (119th Congress)
• But NEPA still bites: Federal courts previously required BLM to redo coal screening and climate analysis for Miles City/Buffalo planning areas. Even with CRA repeal, lease nominations and sales will still need NEPA‑compliant analyses, which limits near‑term volumes. [10]Justia — Western Organization of Resource Councils v. BLM (Miles City/Buffalo R…
• Market/political signal: Unified GOP institutions and a supportive SAP indicate the administration will move to expedite energy‑favoring planning and leasing steps consistent with the nullification. [3]WhiteHouse.gov — White House OMB – Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Re…

Long-Term Consequences

Structural, policy, and political effects over the next 12–24 months.

• Policy direction: Interior/BLM would likely pursue a replacement planning action more permissive to coal leasing; the CRA’s “substantially the same” bar discourages a return to a no‑leasing posture, though that phrase is undefined and could invite litigation. [5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…[8]Web search · turn 5 #10
• Leasing trajectory: Expect incremental resumption tied to site‑specific NEPA, with timelines influenced by the Powder River Basin litigation history and any new suits. [10]Justia — Western Organization of Resource Councils v. BLM (Miles City/Buffalo R…
• Institutional precedent: A successful disapproval reinforces CRA as a deregulatory tool early in unified GOP control, consistent with historic usage patterns during transitions. [6]Ballotpedia — Ballotpedia – Congressional Review Act
• Regional politics: Montana delegation leadership has already coordinated the bicameral push; enactment would be messaged as delivering for Colstrip/Rosebud and coal‑reliant communities. [11]House.gov Press Release — Rep. Ryan Zinke – Press release: Zinke, Daines, Sheeh…

Forecast

Most probable outcome and alternates, based on current floor status and institutional alignment.

1. Baseline (≈85%): Senate completes debate under CRA and passes H.J.Res. 104 this week; the President signs promptly thereafter, voiding the RMPA before month‑end. Drivers: majority control, supportive SAP, and CRA’s simple‑majority/no‑amendment structure. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)[3]WhiteHouse.gov — White House OMB – Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Re…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Focus IF10023 – The Congressional Revie…
2. Secondary (≈10%): Passage slips due to unexpected GOP absences or a narrow whip miscount, pushing a re‑vote within the CRA window but still likely to pass on a subsequent attempt. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Focus IF10023 – The Congressional Revie…
3. Low‑probability (≈5%): Senate fails final passage (multiple GOP defections) or the clock runs; in that case, administration would pivot to administrative workarounds (e.g., interim guidance and targeted plan revisions) short of a reissued rule “substantially the same.” [5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…

Sourcing (key documents)

Core authorities and live status references informing this forecast.

• Congressional status: H.J.Res. 104 actions page (House passage 211–208 on 9/3/25; Senate motion to proceed agreed to 10/7/25). [2]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 All Actions (119th Congress)
• Substance of the rule: CRS summary on Congress.gov (no acres available; 1,745,040 acres closed to further consideration). [9]Congress.gov — Congress.gov – H.J.Res.104 Summary & Overview (119th Congress)
• GAO determination that the Miles City RMPA is a rule under CRA (B‑337163, June 25, 2025). [12]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B‑337163 – BLM Miles City…
• CRA procedures (fast‑track, discharge, simple‑majority): CRS IF10023 and CRS R43992. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Focus IF10023 – The Congressional Revie…[5]Congressional Research Service — CRS R43992 – The Congressional Review Act (CRA…
• CRA lookback/use patterns under unified government. [6]Ballotpedia — Ballotpedia – Congressional Review Act
• Senate control and composition (119th Congress). [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division
• White House Statement of Administration Policy supporting H.J.Res. 104. [3]WhiteHouse.gov — White House OMB – Statement of Administration Policy on H.J.Re…
• Committee jurisdiction context: Senate ENR (Chair Mike Lee). [7]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Heinrich, Lee A…
• Litigation history shaping NEPA obligations in PRB/Miles City. [10]Justia — Western Organization of Resource Councils v. BLM (Miles City/Buffalo R…