119-S-1376 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Bill: S.1376 (Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail Feasibility Study Act of 2025). Reported from Senate Agriculture without amendment and placed on the Senate Calendar (No. 211) on October 27, 2025. Companion: H.R. 2768 in House Natural Resources. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): All actions including placement on Sen…[5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 overview page (119th)

• Senate landscape: GOP holds a 53–47 majority; John Thune is Majority Leader. This is a low‑cost, bipartisan study bill with Southeastern sponsors; committee reported it favorably without amendment. Expect broad bipartisan support and likely passage by unanimous consent (UC) absent an objection. [3]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[2]Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Leader (press…[1]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): All actions including placement on Sen…
• Party-line expectations (Senate): Republicans from GA/NC/TN and most Democrats likely supportive; there is no organized caucus opposition. Known UC skeptics on public-lands matters (e.g., Sen. Mike Lee) are the principal risk to fast-tracking. [6]Congress.gov — S.1376 cosponsors list (Warnock, Budd, Ossoff)[7]Office of Sen. Mike Lee — Sen. Mike Lee statement explaining objections to publ…
• House landscape: GOP majority; Speaker Mike Johnson controls the floor. The House has a bipartisan companion (Fleischmann/Cohen/Edwards/McBath) in Natural Resources but no recorded action beyond referral yet. Typical path would be suspension of the rules or taking up the Senate bill after passage. [8]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[9]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 text and bipartisan co-sponsors
• Party-line expectations (House): Southeastern delegations (GA/NC/TN) likely supportive across parties given local benefits; a small bloc of Western conservatives skeptical of federal land expansion may vote no, but this is only a study. Suspension still likely clears with bipartisan votes if leadership schedules it. [10]AP News — House GOP push to sell public lands in West
• Interest groups: The Benton MacKaye Trail Association is actively advocating for the study; messaging is local-economy and recreation-focused. Broader hiking/trails community has supported strengthening the National Trails System in 2024–25. [11]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — BMTA: Quest for National Scenic Trail Design…[12]Web search · turn 9 #6

• Documented public positions: S.1376 sponsors/co‑sponsors are Tillis (R‑NC), Warnock (D‑GA), Budd (R‑NC), and Ossoff (D‑GA). House companion co‑sponsors span both parties (Fleischmann, Cohen, Edwards, McBath). [6]Congress.gov — S.1376 cosponsors list (Warnock, Budd, Ossoff)[9]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 text and bipartisan co-sponsors

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Who can move or stall the bill, and why.

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Where leadership is and what tools they have.

• Senate GOP leadership: Thune has the votes and procedural toolkit to clear consensus items by UC; with the bill on the calendar and no amendments attached, the clean path is a short UC time agreement. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): All actions including placement on Sen…[2]Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Leader (press…
• Senate committee posture: Agriculture reported the bill favorably on Oct 21 and it was placed on the calendar Oct 27—classic signs leadership staff are comfortable moving it. Warnock’s office characterizes the committee action as unanimous. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): All actions including placement on Sen…[16]Web search · turn 9 #3
• House posture: Johnson’s tight majority and October scheduling decisions (keeping the House out during the shutdown) mean low‑salience items queue up. If/when the House returns, suspension is the efficient route. [4]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House out as shutdown drags
• Committee jurisdiction (House): Natural Resources has the companion. Westerman as chair and Huffman as ranking provide a known pathway if they prefer to mark up H.R. 2768 before floor action. [5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 overview page (119th)[17]Indianz.com — House Natural Resources convenes; Huffman named ranking member

Assessment and whip count

Bottom line: who votes yes/no and what are the odds.

• Senate votes: Expect near‑unanimous support if UC holds; if forced to roll call, broad bipartisan yeas with only a handful of Western‑state conservatives likely to oppose on federal‑lands grounds. [7]Office of Sen. Mike Lee — Sen. Mike Lee statement explaining objections to publ…
• House votes: On suspension, two‑thirds threshold is reachable given bipartisan cosponsors from the three affected states; a small Western‑state GOP bloc may vote no on philosophy, but the study’s narrow scope should limit defections. [9]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 text and bipartisan co-sponsors[10]AP News — House GOP push to sell public lands in West

Probability – Senate passage (this work period or next)

High

Probability – House passage (by year‑end clearance)

Moderate–High

Overall likelihood this Congress

Moderate–High (confidence: moderate)

• Timing windows: If Senate clears by UC in early November, House could either take up S.1376 on suspension or move H.R. 2768; otherwise this likely rolls into a late‑year noncontroversial package. Current House downtime during the shutdown is the main schedule drag. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - S.1376 (119th): All actions including placement on Sen…[5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2768 overview page (119th)[4]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House out as shutdown drags
• Stakeholder optics: Local trail association backing and bipartisan regional sponsorship reduce partisan risk; no CBO score posted, but feasibility studies typically carry minimal cost and face limited resistance. [11]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — BMTA: Quest for National Scenic Trail Design…