119-HR-7831 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill brief and status

What it does: Extends BLM’s Application for Permit to Drill (APD) processing fee authority in the Mineral Leasing Act from FY2026 to FY2037 and directs that 100% of APD fees in FY2027–FY2037 flow to the BLM Permit Processing Improvement Fund (PPIF). Sponsor: Rep. Mike Kennedy (R‑UT). Marked up in House Natural Resources on May 14, 2026. (doi.gov)

• Current law: APD fee authority runs “for each of fiscal years 2016 through 2026,” with recent law channeling all fees to PPIF; the bill extends that schedule to FY2037. (uscode.house.gov)
• BLM testimony (Mar 25, 2026) pegs the FY26 APD fee at $12,850 and underscores the program’s role in staffing and throughput; Interior’s FY2027 Greenbook projects ~$64.3M in APD fee receipts for FY2027. (blm.gov)
• Natural Resources held subcommittee hearing on Mar 25, 2026 and full committee markup on May 14, 2026; outside coverage indicates the bill advanced in committee. (naturalresources.house.gov)

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

This is a fee‑extension/BLM‑capacity bill with pro‑permitting optics. In a unified‑GOP Washington (119th Congress), default coalitions favor movement, but Senate floor math still rules.

• House Republicans: Broad support. Committee of jurisdiction is chaired by Rep. Bruce Westerman (R‑AR), a vocal pro‑energy ally; his stated agenda aligns with faster permitting, and the bill just cleared his markup. Expect near‑conference unanimity. (naturalresources.house.gov)
• House Democrats: Select crossovers likely from energy‑state and Western members who have supported BLM capacity and streamlined permitting in the past; committee consideration proceeded without visible drama. Expect a modest bloc of Democratic yes votes if the floor frame stays “pay‑for‑service, agency capacity.” (naturalresources.house.gov)
• Senate Republicans: Strong support. Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; ENR Chairman John Barrasso is positioned to report the bill or a companion. (senate.gov)
• Senate Democrats/Independents: To clear 60, Republicans will need ~7 crossovers. Targetable Dems include Western‑state members focused on permitting efficiency (e.g., ENR Ranking Member Martin Heinrich; Nevada’s Cortez Masto on BLM process streamlining). These signals make a narrow, clean APD‑fee extension viable. (heinrich.senate.gov)
• Interest groups: Upstream producers and allied trade groups back reauthorizing the PPIF/APD fee; Interior/BLM testified to operational need. Expect minimal organized industry opposition; environmental opposition likely muted but watch messaging on “License to Drill.” (ipaa.org)

Key legislators and leverage points

Who can move or stall the bill, and how.

• House Natural Resources: Chair Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) is the primary gatekeeper; Subcommittee on Energy & Mineral Resources is chaired by Rep. Pete Stauber (R‑MN). Their markup posture suggests a green light to leadership. (naturalresources.house.gov)
• House floor: Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) controls timing. With a narrow majority, leadership can move this via a structured rule and pick up a few Democrats if needed. (speaker.gov)
• Senate ENR: Chair John Barrasso (R‑WY) can run a clean bipartisan report; Ranking Member Martin Heinrich (D‑NM) is a plausible negotiating partner on narrow permitting‑capacity fixes. (energy.senate.gov)
• Senate floor: Majority Leader John Thune (R‑SD) sets the queue, but Rule XXII means 60 votes to end debate on stand‑alone legislation. That keeps packaging strategies (appropriations/NDAA) in play if standalone support stalls. (senate.gov)

Institutional context and procedure

• Composition: Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate (with two Independents counted among Democrats) and a narrow House majority. That favors committee movement and House passage, while the Senate’s 60‑vote cloture bar remains the key choke point. (periodicalpress.senate.gov)
• Executive alignment: The Trump administration’s energy posture is permissive; Interior’s legislative brief explicitly supports extending the APD fee authority to avoid an FY2026 lapse. (usa.gov)
• Substance: The bill simply extends an existing statutory user fee and continues routing receipts to PPIF to fund staff/process. BLM testified the fee is essential to maintain throughput and IT/process upgrades. (uscode.house.gov)
• Timing: Current authority expires at the end of FY2026; if the House sends a clean bill by early summer, Senate can either clear it with a bipartisan cloture deal or append text to a must‑pass vehicle (Interior/Environment approps or NDAA), which has historical precedent for APD‑fee policy. (doi.gov)

Assessment: odds and pathway

Bottom line calls, with the levers that matter.

• House passage: High likelihood. The committee action and leadership alignment point to floor time; expect near‑unanimous GOP support and a handful of Democratic yes votes. (naturalresources.house.gov)
• Senate passage (stand‑alone): Moderate likelihood. Policy is narrow and operational, but 60‑vote math forces at least ~7 Democratic/Independent votes; Western‑state Dems focused on permitting provide a plausible path. (periodicalpress.senate.gov)
• Most likely vehicle if floor bogs: Package into a larger energy/lands/Interior title or an omnibus/minibus, preserving the clean fee‑extension text. Precedent exists for APD‑fee policy riding major vehicles. (blm.gov)
• Confidence: Moderate. Committee and executive branch signals are strong; Senate floor is the only hard gate.

Key numbers

Sourcing (selected)

Primary references used for positions, composition, and procedure.

• Bill text and status: H.R. 7831 introduced Mar 5, 2026 (LegiScan text). (legiscan.com)
• Committee activity: EMR hearing notice (Mar 25, 2026) and full committee markup (May 14, 2026). (naturalresources.house.gov)
• BLM/Interior positions and program details: BLM testimony (fee amount/operations), DOI pending‑legislation brief (expiration/need). (blm.gov)
• Statute in force: 30 U.S.C. §191(d) (prelim). (uscode.house.gov)
• Interest‑group signals: IPAA/API coalition urging PPIF reauthorization. (ipaa.org)
• Chamber control and leadership: Senate PPG seat count; Senate leader list; Speaker’s office. (periodicalpress.senate.gov)
• Senate committee gatekeepers: ENR membership/chair (Barrasso). (energy.senate.gov)
• Potential crossover cues: Heinrich permitting‑reform posture; Cortez Masto on BLM process streamlining. (heinrich.senate.gov)
• Cloture rule: Senate official explainer. (senate.gov)
• Context precedent: APD‑fee policy origins in FY2015 NDAA/BLM guidance. (blm.gov)