119-HR-3426 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Institutional context and public record point to broad, low‑salience bipartisan support; opposition risk is localized to senators with ongoing courthouse builds who may seek carve‑outs or clarifying report language.

• House: Passed under suspension by voice vote on Sept. 15, 2025; sponsor Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R‑IN), with Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D‑DC) as original cosponsor — signaling bipartisan, low‑controversy posture. [3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…[5]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 Cosponsors (Congress.gov)
• Senate landscape: GOP majority 53–47; EPW has the referral and is chaired by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R‑WV), with Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D‑RI) as Ranking Member. The policy aligns with recent GAO findings on courthouse size/cost inflation. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — Party summary and leadership (Wikipe…[2]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — Capito to Serve as Chairman of Senate Committee on…[6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…
• Caucus expectations:
• - Senate Republicans: Predominantly supportive; the bill’s cost‑containment and codified sharing ratios track with GSA/GAO testimony and GOP messaging on federal real‑estate footprint. [7]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA PBS Commissioner Michael Peters — Ma…[6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…
• - Senate Democrats/Independents: Many likely to acquiesce given the House’s non‑controversial posture and GAO record, but some may press for language ensuring security/circulation needs (the judiciary cited security to justify 2021 Design Guide changes). [3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…[8]News result · turn 6 #12
• Interest groups/institutional stakeholders: GAO has repeatedly documented excess space and supports more sharing; the judiciary has historically resisted rigid sharing for active judges but has adopted sharing for senior, magistrate, and bankruptcy judges; GSA testified in favor of streamlining and collaboration. [9]Web search · turn 4 #0[10]Web search · turn 6 #4[7]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA PBS Commissioner Michael Peters — Ma…

Key legislators (swing/pressure points)

Given the bill’s low profile, individual holds are the main risk. Senators tied to active courthouse projects or judiciary‑security priorities could seek tweaks before consenting.

• Gatekeepers: Chair Capito (EPW) can move a quick markup or negotiate a discharge/UC; Ranking Member Whitehouse likely focuses on security‑language guardrails rather than blocking. [2]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — Capito to Serve as Chairman of Senate Committee on…
• Floor control: Majority Leader John Thune decides whether to hotline/UC or burn floor time; no public friction evident, so a consent route is favored. [11]Web search · turn 5 #1
• Localized hold risks (ongoing projects):
• - Tennessee (Blackburn, Hagerty): Chattanooga courthouse is advancing (7 courtrooms, 9 chambers); they may seek assurances that ratios won’t derail scope/schedule. [12]U.S. General Services Administration — Chattanooga U.S. Courthouse Project (GSA…
• - Connecticut (Blumenthal, Murphy): Hartford project moving; similar incentives to secure security/circulation carve‑outs. [13]CT Insider — Plans to build new federal courthouse in Hartford moving forward
• - Broad project footprint: Multiple states have active GSA courthouse work (e.g., AL, NC, PA, TX, AZ/TN); senators from these delegations could ask for report language confirming security exceptions. [14]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA Courthouse Construction — project li…
• Policy validators: GAO analysis (2024–2025) underpinning size/cost increases and courtroom‑sharing feasibility provides bipartisan cover for a yes vote. [6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

This is a classic UC‑eligible housekeeping bill: low cost, committee‑validated, and supported by watchdog findings. The pathway hinges on EPW handling and the Senate’s consent culture.

• Referral/status: Received in the Senate and referred to EPW on Dec. 1; previously ping‑ponged for technicals. EPW can report quickly or be discharged by UC. [3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…
• Senate procedure: The chamber routinely clears low‑salience House bills by unanimous consent or in wrap‑up; if a hold materializes, leadership can still proceed with a brief debate window or adopt a consent agreement. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: How Unanimous Consent Agreements Regulate…
• Whip math if roll‑call is required: With a 53–47 GOP majority and evident bipartisan House posture, 60 votes are available absent organized opposition from the judiciary’s champions — and security concerns can be addressed via report language or colloquy. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — Party summary and leadership (Wikipe…[3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…
• Context setting: The bill’s predicate is GAO’s finding that the 2021 Design Guide increases size by ~6% and costs by ~12% on average; that frames the measure as cost control, not anti‑judiciary. [6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…
• Signal from stakeholders: GSA’s PBS Commissioner testified to aligning with cost‑efficiency and collaboration with Congress; that reduces intra‑branch friction on implementation. [7]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA PBS Commissioner Michael Peters — Ma…

Assessment: Likelihood of passage

Pragmatic call: this should pass; the only question is whether it rides a UC package in December or slips to early Q1.

Likelihood of Senate passage: High. Rationale — House cleared it on suspension by voice; EPW is chaired by a cost‑cutting Republican; GAO/CRS record supports the policy; and the Senate often moves such measures by UC in year‑end wrap‑ups. The principal risk is a localized hold from senators tied to current courthouse builds, which is addressable via narrow report language or colloquy clarifying that security‑driven exceptions remain available. [3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…[2]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — Capito to Serve as Chairman of Senate Committee on…[6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: How Unanimous Consent Agreements Regulate…

Sourcing (key records)

Primary documents and reliable reporting underpinning this whip assessment:

• Congress.gov bill card, actions, text, and House report (H. Rept. 119‑240). [3]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R. 3426 — Congress.gov bill card (status…[15]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 119-240 (CASE Act of 2025) —…
• Senate EPW chair/members (119th) official releases. [2]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — Capito to Serve as Chairman of Senate Committee on…
• Senate party control and leadership (119th). [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — Party summary and leadership (Wikipe…[11]Web search · turn 5 #1
• GAO reports/testimony on courthouse size/cost impacts and courtroom sharing. [6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO-25-108406: Courthouse Construction…[9]Web search · turn 4 #0
• House hearing record and GSA PBS Commissioner testimony (May 20, 2025). [16]Web search · turn 10 #3[7]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA PBS Commissioner Michael Peters — Ma…
• CRS on unanimous consent and Senate floor practice. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: How Unanimous Consent Agreements Regulate…
• Active GSA courthouse project lists (context for localized holds); Chattanooga and Hartford project coverage. [14]U.S. General Services Administration — GSA Courthouse Construction — project li…[12]U.S. General Services Administration — Chattanooga U.S. Courthouse Project (GSA…[13]CT Insider — Plans to build new federal courthouse in Hartford moving forward