119-HJRES-131 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

- Proposal: H.J.Res. 131 invokes the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to disapprove BLM’s Coastal Plain Oil & Gas Leasing Program ROD issued in December 2024. That ROD selected Alternative D2, keeping only the minimum 400,000 acres available and closing roughly 1.16 million acres to leasing or exploration. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.131 — 119th Congress: Bill overview and CRS summary[2]Bureau of Land Management — BLM: Notice of Availability of the Record of Decisi…

- Legal effect if enacted: The CRA treats the targeted action as though it had never taken effect and prohibits issuing a “substantially the same” rule absent new statutory authorization—practically reverting to the prior legal posture (including the 2020 program ROD) unless a court or subsequent law dictates otherwise. [7]Congressional Research Service — CRS: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): Frequ…[8]Legal Information Institute — 5 U.S.C. §801 (CRA text)

- Context: Congress scheduled floor consideration under a closed rule; GAO has opined the 2024 ROD is a “rule” for CRA purposes. [9]House Committee on Rules — House Rules Committee meeting announcement (Nov. 17,…[3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: CRA applicability to 2024…

Economic Effects

• Leasable area: Disapproval would remove the D2 constraints, likely reopening up to ~1.56 million acres (the full program area defined in the 2020 decision) for future offerings, subject to statute and subsequent agency actions. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.131 — 119th Congress: Bill overview and CRS summary
• Bonus bids/revenue: The first sale (Jan 6, 2021) yielded $14.4 million in high bids (largely from Alaska’s AIDEA), far below CBO’s 2017 expectation of about $1.1 billion in net federal receipts over 2018–2027. The second mandated sale (Jan 2025) drew no bids. These outcomes indicate tenuous market appetite even if acreage expands. [4]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: First ANWR Coastal Plain lease s…[10]Congress.gov — Senate Budget Committee Print (115th Congress): CBO cost estimat…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…
• Production/prices: EIA’s reference case analysis shows potential ANWR output peaking ~0.78 mb/d in the mean resource case with very small world oil price effects (well under $2/bbl). Any supply response would materialize only after long lead times. [6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…
• State and local fiscal effects: If development proceeds, Alaska would receive 50% of lease receipts under the 2017 law (departing from the state’s typical 90% share for onshore federal leases), alongside potential royalty/tax revenues; however, weak bidding to date suggests limited near‑term fiscal gains. [11]Web search · turn 8 #4
• Capital risk: Company reticence (no bids in 2025; prior lease relinquishments) signals perceived project/ESG risk, cost, and litigation exposure that could depress valuations for any reopened tracts. [5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…

Social Effects

• Subsistence and culture: The Porcupine Caribou Herd uses the Coastal Plain for calving; displacement or altered movements from infrastructure can affect food security and cultural practices of Gwich’in communities. [12]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — species…[13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2019/2020): Caribou use of habitat near energy d…
• Community divides: Some Alaska Native entities (e.g., organizations representing Iñupiat communities on the North Slope) have supported development for jobs and revenue, while Gwich’in organizations oppose activity on the calving grounds. [14]News result · turn 3 #12
• Employment/local services: If leasing ultimately leads to development, there could be job creation and investments in local infrastructure, but timing and scale are uncertain given recent bid outcomes and long development lead times. [5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…[6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Environmental Effects

• Habitat exposure: Disapproving the 2024 ROD would negate D2’s protections that kept ~1.16 million acres off‑limits, increasing the probability that high‑value wildlife areas see exploration pressure. [3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: CRA applicability to 2024…
• Caribou: Peer‑reviewed and USGS analyses show female caribou avoid infrastructure during calving (up to several kilometers), implying functional habitat loss in precisely the period and place most sensitive for calf survival. [13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2019/2020): Caribou use of habitat near energy d…
• Polar bears: Maternal denning has shifted landward along the Alaska coastal plain as sea ice declines, concentrating dens in terrain types prevalent on the Coastal Plain; disturbance risks increase with winter seismic and construction activity. [15]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Polar bear maternal denning (landward shift and…
• Birds: The refuge supports 200+ migratory bird species; disturbance and potential spills would risk nesting/foraging habitats in river deltas and lagoons adjacent to leasable tracts. [12]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — species…
• GHGs: The 2024 SEIS/ROD analyzed upstream and downstream emissions and adopted mitigation via lease stipulations and required operating procedures; CRA disapproval would remove that decision framework, with future program rules uncertain. Global price impacts from ANWR-scale output are modeled to be small. [16]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service / Federal Register — Federal Register notice: Avai…[6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Temporal Analysis

1. Immediate (0–12 months): Legal effect would be to void the 2024 ROD; agency cannot issue a substantially similar replacement absent new law. Expect procedural uncertainty as DOI reverts to prior program posture and/or initiates alternative actions; litigation risk remains high. [7]Congressional Research Service — CRS: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): Frequ…
2. Near term (1–3 years): Any additional lease offerings would still face market headwinds evidenced by the 2025 no‑bid sale; even if leases sell, exploration plans and approvals would take time. [5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…
3. Long term (5–15+ years): If commercial discoveries occur, first oil is typically a decade from authorization in EIA modeling; infrastructure would expand the industrial footprint with cumulative habitat effects. Price effects remain modest. [6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Unintended Consequences

• Governance/litigation overhang: Recent federal court rulings on lease cancellations underscore continued legal flux; disapproval may invite new suits over what legal regime applies post‑ROD. [17]Reuters — Reuters: Judge rules Biden admin lacked authority to cancel ANWR leas…
• Revenue shortfalls: Expectation gaps (CBO’s ~$1.1B net federal receipts vs. $14.4M in 2021 and no bids in 2025) could persist, leaving state/federal budgets exposed if forecast as pay‑fors. [10]Congress.gov — Senate Budget Committee Print (115th Congress): CBO cost estimat…[4]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: First ANWR Coastal Plain lease s…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…
• Ecological risk transfer: Removing the 2024 ROD’s acreage limits and stipulation package shifts more risk onto caribou calving areas and polar bear denning habitats, where mitigation tends to be least effective. [3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: CRA applicability to 2024…[13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2019/2020): Caribou use of habitat near energy d…[15]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Polar bear maternal denning (landward shift and…

Assessment

Neutral. The resolution would expand legal latitude for leasing (relative to the 2024 ROD) but near‑term economic gains are uncertain given recent bid failures and small modeled price effects, while environmental and governance risks are immediate and localized to sensitive habitats. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.131 — 119th Congress: Bill overview and CRS summary[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…[6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Key metrics

Sources: BLM ROD/GAO summary; BLM and DOI press releases; EIA ANWR analysis. [3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: CRA applicability to 2024…[4]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: First ANWR Coastal Plain lease s…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…[6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Sourcing notes

- Legislative status and text from Congress.gov; GAO legal opinion establishing CRA applicability; Federal Register/BLM notices for the 2024 SEIS/ROD; House Rules schedule for floor consideration. [1]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.131 — 119th Congress: Bill overview and CRS summary[18]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.131 — bill text (as introduced)[3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: CRA applicability to 2024…[16]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service / Federal Register — Federal Register notice: Avai…[9]House Committee on Rules — House Rules Committee meeting announcement (Nov. 17,…

- Market evidence and fiscal baselines from BLM/DOI sale results and CBO scoring; production/price modeling from EIA. [4]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: First ANWR Coastal Plain lease s…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release: Arctic Refuge lease sale y…[10]Congress.gov — Senate Budget Committee Print (115th Congress): CBO cost estimat…[6]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

- Ecological context from USGS peer‑reviewed and data releases (caribou avoidance; polar bear denning shift) and USFWS refuge species profiles. [13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2019/2020): Caribou use of habitat near energy d…[15]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Polar bear maternal denning (landward shift and…[12]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — species…