Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 5107 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-5107 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5107 Common-Sense Law Enforcement and Accountability Now in DC Act of 2025

gavel Crime and Law Enforcement
Common-Sense Law Enforcement and Accountability Now in DC Act or the CLEAN DC ActThis bill repeals the Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022, enacted by the Council of the...

Bottom line: H.R. 5107 will pass the House under the closed rule adopted on Nov. 18; expect near‑unanimous GOP support with a modest Democratic crossover. In the Senate, the bill can clear committee but lacks 60 votes on a standalone basis while the filibuster is intact; the only viable path is as a rider in year‑end FSGG/CJS negotiations. Confidence: House—high; Senate standalone—low; Senate as a rider—moderate. [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025…[2]Congress.gov — H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 118-556 — FSGG appropriations report noting D.C. riders

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
19 Nov 2025
Updated
19 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · DC-home-rule · oversight
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown — expected support/opposition

Scope: H.R. 5107 repeals most of D.C.’s Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022 (retaining the chokehold ban and vehicular pursuit limits). Reported by Oversight; set for floor action under a closed rule. [5]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 119-317 — CLEAN DC Act (scope/exceptions)[6]Congress.gov — H.R. 5107 text (Library of Congress)[2]Congress.gov — H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others

  • House outlook (floor): GOP majority (219–214–2 vacancies) moved H.Res. 879 and adopted it 217–210, providing a closed rule, one hour of debate, and one motion to recommit. Expect near‑unanimous GOP yeas and a modest Democratic crossover given recent precedents on D.C. policing bills. Target range: 225–240 YEAs. [7]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; p…[1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025…[2]Congress.gov — H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others
  • House precedent signals crossover votes: on June 10 the House passed a narrower D.C. policing rollback (H.R. 2096) 235–178 with 30 Democrats in support. On Sept. 17, a related D.C. policing bill passed 245–182 with 29 Democratic YEAs. [8]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 162 — H.R. 2096 (D.C. policing rollba…[7]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; p…
  • Senate outlook (standalone): GOP majority leadership (Thune) is preserving the filibuster—60 votes required. Republicans can report S.2687 from HSGAC (Chair Paul; D.C. subpanel chaired by Hawley), but floor passage lacks 60 without sizeable Democratic defections. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[9]Senate HSGAC — HSGAC announcement — Chair/Ranking and subcommittee leads (incl.…
  • Senate precedent: in 2023, a D.C. policing disapproval (H.J.Res. 42) passed the Senate 56–43 with several Democrats/Independents (e.g., Cortez Masto, Rosen, Hassan, Shaheen, King) joining Republicans; Biden vetoed and the House failed to override. Today’s narrower pool of potential Democratic crossovers reduces prospects below 60. [10]Web search · turn 14 #5[11]Congress.gov — H.J.Res. 42 (118th) — actions incl. veto and failed override
  • Administration posture: The White House has taken aggressive steps on D.C. public safety (e.g., federal interventions this summer), indicating a likely signature if a bill reaches the President. [12]Washington Post — Trump orders federal takeover of D.C. police, deploys Nationa…
House expected YEAs
230(range 225–240)
House threshold
218(simple majority)
Senate expected YEAs (standalone)
55(<60 cloture threshold)
02 · Section

Key legislators — pivotal votes and indicators

Focus on members with recent, relevant votes or jurisdictional leverage.

  • House Democratic crossovers to watch (based on recent D.C. policing votes): Ami Bera (CA) and Nikki Budzinski (IL) backed a related D.C. policing bill on Sept. 17; Greg Stanton (AZ) backed H.R. 2096 on June 10. Expect some, not all, of these to support H.R. 5107. [7]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; p…[13]Web search · turn 13 #7
  • House GOP holdouts: A small GOP bloc opposed H.R. 2096 (4 Republicans). Track similar members for potential MTR dynamics, but leadership held the rule vote 217–210 on Nov. 18. [8]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 162 — H.R. 2096 (D.C. policing rollba…[1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025…
  • Senate gatekeepers: Rand Paul (HSGAC Chair) controls initial markup; Josh Hawley (D.C. subcommittee) can accelerate hearings/markup; John Thune (Majority Leader) controls floor time but has affirmed keeping the filibuster—raising the 60‑vote bar. [9]Senate HSGAC — HSGAC announcement — Chair/Ranking and subcommittee leads (incl.…[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • Potential Senate swing Democrats/Independents (based on 2023 vote to disapprove D.C.’s policing law): Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Jacky Rosen (NV), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Maggie Hassan (NH), Angus King (ME). Their prior votes suggest openness to targeted rollbacks, but a full repeal may attract fewer. [14]Page view · turn 15 #2
  • District stakeholders shaping optics: D.C. officials (Mayor Bowser, Council) urged House leaders to oppose anti‑home‑rule bills; FOP and the D.C. Police Union community support rollbacks. These signals affect moderate Democrats’ calculus. [15]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (June 10, 2025) — Bowser/Mendelson letter t…[16]Fraternal Order of Police — FOP press statement backing H.R. 2096 (D.C. policin…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where power, timing, and rules determine outcomes.

  • House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson controls the floor; the rule for H.R. 5107 is closed, with one hour of general debate and an MTR—tightening amendment risk and signaling leadership confidence on passage. [7]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; p…[2]Congress.gov — H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others
  • Committee path: H.R. 5107 was reported by Oversight; report retains the chokehold and vehicular‑pursuit limits while repealing the balance of the CPJRA. Winner’s script for moderates is in the committee report. [5]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 119-317 — CLEAN DC Act (scope/exceptions)
  • Senate control points: S.2687 (CLEAN D.C. Act) sits in HSGAC (Chair Paul). Even with a favorable report, Majority Leader Thune’s stance on preserving the filibuster means the floor needs 60 votes or a successful rider strategy. [17]GPO via Congress.gov — S.2687 introduced — CLEAN DC Act (Senate)[9]Senate HSGAC — HSGAC announcement — Chair/Ranking and subcommittee leads (incl.…[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • Rider path: The most realistic Senate vehicle is an FSGG/CJS appropriations rider (consistent with long‑standing D.C. riders on abortion, marijuana, traffic policy). Outcome would hinge on House‑Senate conference trades and Appropriations leaders’ leverage. [4]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 118-556 — FSGG appropriations report noting D.C. riders
  • Institutional context (the underlying D.C. law): The CPJRA became effective Apr. 21, 2023, after the congressional review period lapsed—hence today’s need for affirmative repeal legislation rather than disapproval. [18]D.C. Law Library — D.C. Law 24-345 (CPJRA) — effective date and contents
04 · Section

Assessment — likelihood of passage

Pragmatic forecast with confidence levels and timing considerations.

  • House: Passage very likely this work period under H.Res. 879; GOP unity plus a modest Democratic crossover yields 225–240 YEAs. Confidence: high. [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025…
  • Senate (standalone): Can clear HSGAC but stalls short of 60 on the floor despite 2023’s 56‑vote disapproval precedent (fewer plausible Democratic crossovers now). Confidence: low. [11]Congress.gov — H.J.Res. 42 (118th) — actions incl. veto and failed override
  • Senate (as rider): If attached to FSGG/CJS in an end‑game package, prospects improve to plausible—subject to leadership trades and whether Democrats prioritize stripping D.C. riders in conference. Confidence: moderate. [4]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 118-556 — FSGG appropriations report noting D.C. riders
  • Presidential action: If it reaches the Resolute Desk, signature is likely given the administration’s recent posture on D.C. public safety. [12]Washington Post — Trump orders federal takeover of D.C. police, deploys Nationa…
05 · Section

Core sources (selected)

Key citations underlying the whip and procedural calls above.

  • Bill text/status: H.R. 5107 text and committee report; S.2687 referral. [6]Congress.gov — H.R. 5107 text (Library of Congress)[5]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 119-317 — CLEAN DC Act (scope/exceptions)[17]GPO via Congress.gov — S.2687 introduced — CLEAN DC Act (Senate)
  • Floor procedure: H.Res. 879 (closed rule) and adoption vote 217–210. [2]Congress.gov — H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others[1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025…
  • House composition/leadership and D.C. policing roll calls this Congress. [7]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; p…[8]Clerk of the U.S. House — House Roll Call 162 — H.R. 2096 (D.C. policing rollba…
  • Senate leadership/filibuster posture; HSGAC control. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[9]Senate HSGAC — HSGAC announcement — Chair/Ranking and subcommittee leads (incl.…
  • Underlying D.C. law (CPJRA) and prior congressional action (2023 disapproval/veto). [18]D.C. Law Library — D.C. Law 24-345 (CPJRA) — effective date and contents[11]Congress.gov — H.J.Res. 42 (118th) — actions incl. veto and failed override
  • Stakeholder signals: FOP support; civil‑rights coalition opposition; D.C. officials’ letters. [16]Fraternal Order of Police — FOP press statement backing H.R. 2096 (D.C. policin…[19]LDF — NAACP Legal Defense Fund — opposition to disapproval of CPJRA[15]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (June 10, 2025) — Bowser/Mendelson letter t…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Republican Cloakroom — Tuesday November 18th, 2025 floor results (includes H.Res. 879) House Republican Cloakroom
  2. [2] H.Res. 879 all-info — rule covering H.R. 5107 and others Congress.gov
  3. [3] Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Leader (filibuster posture) Office of Sen. John Thune
  4. [4] H. Rept. 118-556 — FSGG appropriations report noting D.C. riders Congress.gov
  5. [5] H. Rept. 119-317 — CLEAN DC Act (scope/exceptions) Congress.gov
  6. [6] H.R. 5107 text (Library of Congress) Congress.gov
  7. [7] House Roll Call 275 — D.C. Policing Protection Act; page also lists House composition/leadership Clerk of the U.S. House
  8. [8] House Roll Call 162 — H.R. 2096 (D.C. policing rollback) Clerk of the U.S. House
  9. [9] HSGAC announcement — Chair/Ranking and subcommittee leads (incl. D.C. subpanel) Senate HSGAC
  10. [10] Web search · turn 14 #5
  11. [11] H.J.Res. 42 (118th) — actions incl. veto and failed override Congress.gov
  12. [12] Trump orders federal takeover of D.C. police, deploys National Guard Washington Post
  13. [13] Web search · turn 13 #7
  14. [14] Page view · turn 15 #2
  15. [15] Congressional Record (June 10, 2025) — Bowser/Mendelson letter to Johnson & Jeffries opposing anti‑home‑rule bills Congress.gov
  16. [16] FOP press statement backing H.R. 2096 (D.C. policing changes) Fraternal Order of Police
  17. [17] S.2687 introduced — CLEAN DC Act (Senate) GPO via Congress.gov
  18. [18] D.C. Law 24-345 (CPJRA) — effective date and contents D.C. Law Library
  19. [19] NAACP Legal Defense Fund — opposition to disapproval of CPJRA LDF

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