Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 2293 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-2293 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 2293 Cormorant Relief Act of 2025

pets Animals
Cormorant Relief Act of 2025This bill requires the Department of the Interior to reissue the depredation order for double-crested cormorants at aquaculture facilities in certain states. (The previous...

House passed H.R. 2293 by voice under suspension on Dec. 9, 2025; with Republicans holding a 53–47 Senate and Thune as Majority Leader, EPW Chair Capito and Fisheries Subcommittee Chair Ricketts can move the bill or clear it by unanimous consent. Expect broad GOP support, targeted Democratic crossover from Great Lakes states, and organized opposition from bird-conservation groups. Likelihood this Congress: high; December passage window: moderate given holds/calendar. [1]Congress.gov — All Info — H.R.2293 (119th): actions and status[2]Associated Press — AP: John Thune elected Senate majority leader as GOP regains…[3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov member page — Sen. John Thune (Majority Leader)[4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
11 Dec 2025
Updated
11 Dec 2025
Tags
whip count · Congress · Natural Resources
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: party and caucus alignment

What we know coming out of the House and looking ahead to the Senate.

  • House: H.R. 2293 cleared on Dec. 9, 2025 by voice vote under suspension (40 minutes debate; motion by Rep. Jeff Hurd). That signals broad, low‑salience bipartisan tolerance for the policy as framed. [1]Congress.gov — All Info — H.R.2293 (119th): actions and status
  • Bill scope: the engrossed House text directs Interior to reissue the aquaculture depredation order, expand applicability to additional states and to licensed private lake/pond managers, modernize terminology/recordkeeping, and remove the old sunset—while preserving NEPA and MBTA compliance. This expansion is what will draw any Senate objections. [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
  • Senate control: Republicans hold a 53–47 majority; John Thune is Majority Leader and Chuck Schumer is Democratic Leader. That favors floor time and UC clearance if objections are limited. [2]Associated Press — AP: John Thune elected Senate majority leader as GOP regains…[3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov member page — Sen. John Thune (Majority Leader)[6]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Majority and Minority Leaders list (119th)
  • Committee of jurisdiction: Senate Environment & Public Works (EPW) chaired by Shelley Moore Capito; Fisheries, Wildlife & Water Subcommittee chaired by Pete Ricketts with Adam Schiff as Ranking Member—logical venue if leadership opts for markup over hotline. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…[7]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW subcommittee assignments (119th)
  • Companion signal: Senate bill S.1255 (Cotton et al.) exists with Gulf/Delta co‑sponsors (Hyde‑Smith, Wicker, Britt, Tuberville), demonstrating regional GOP demand; expect Mississippi and Alabama delegations to lean in on floor and committee strategy. [8]Congress.gov — All Info — S.1255 (119th): Cormorant Relief Act of 2025
  • Policy backdrop: USFWS’s historic 1998/2003 depredation orders were vacated in 2016; since then the Service shifted to permits/special state permits (2020/2021 framework). H.R. 2293 would effectively restore and broaden the aquaculture order. [9]USDA APHIS — APHIS: Depredation Orders for Double‑crested Cormorants (backgroun…[10]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Federal Register (Dec. 29, 2020): background…[11]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS FAQ: current depredation permitting (50 CFR…
  • Interest coalitions: farm/aquaculture groups are actively whipping members (e.g., National Aquaculture Association action alert); conservation NGOs (Audubon, ABC allies) oppose expanded lethal take and highlight science/MBTA concerns—likely source of Democratic holds. [12]National Aquaculture Association — National Aquaculture Association action aler…[13]Audubon — Audubon: critique of expanded cormorant take (opposition context)
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal swing votes

Where leverage sits and who can stop or smooth clearance.

  • Floor control: Majority Leader John Thune can hotline and clear by UC; if any Senator objects, cloture means a 60‑vote path. With a 53–47 split, GOP needs 7 Democratic/Independent votes if it comes to a file-and-vote scenario. [3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov member page — Sen. John Thune (Majority Leader)[14]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — LII/Wex: Cloture in the U.S. Senate (60…
  • Committee gatekeepers: EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito and Fisheries Subcommittee Chair Pete Ricketts—both aligned with producers—can schedule a quick markup or waive it if leadership seeks UC on the House bill. Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse can demand process (hearing/manager’s amendment) but lacks votes to block. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…[7]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW subcommittee assignments (119th)
  • Regional champions: Mississippi’s Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde‑Smith (S.1255 co‑sponsors) are natural Senate floor managers or EPW advocates for moving the House vehicle. Expect coordinated whip with Alabama’s Katie Britt/Tommy Tuberville. [8]Congress.gov — All Info — S.1255 (119th): Cormorant Relief Act of 2025
  • Probable Democratic crossovers: Great Lakes delegation often backs targeted cormorant control for fisheries—watch Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin/Gary Peters and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. These members represent constituencies with recurring cormorant‑fishery frictions, making quiet yes votes plausible if NEPA/MBTA guardrails are preserved in text. (Inference grounded in regional policy history and the bill’s retained NEPA/MBTA clauses.) [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
  • Potential objectors/hold threats: West Coast environmental bloc (e.g., Jeff Merkley) and animal‑welfare‑aligned Democrats (e.g., Cory Booker) are likeliest to slow or demand changes—especially given the bill’s new coverage for licensed private lake/pond managers. [15]Web search · turn 16 #0[16]Web search · turn 16 #2
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

How leadership and rules shape the glidepath.

  • Leadership posture: With unified GOP control of the White House/Senate and Thune in the chair, wildlife/aquaculture relief items that have House suspension momentum typically move by hotline/UC late in session or hitch a ride on a small package. No public Dem leadership whip against this has surfaced. [2]Associated Press — AP: John Thune elected Senate majority leader as GOP regains…
  • Process options: (a) Hotline the House‑passed bill for UC; (b) quick EPW markup and report, then UC; (c) if a hold materializes, file cloture and burn time—60 votes needed. Option (a) is fastest; option (c) requires 7+ Democratic/Independent votes. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…[14]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — LII/Wex: Cloture in the U.S. Senate (60…
  • Executive alignment: Interior has signaled support for reinstating lethal control tools where justified; no veto threat evident. The White House environment is generally favorable under President Trump. [17]Web search · turn 7 #4[18]PBS News (Associated Press) — PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th U.S. Presid…
  • Substance cushion: The House text explicitly preserves NEPA and the MBTA, giving EPW Democrats cover to stand down if managers commit to oversight/report language on science‑based take and reporting. [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
04 · Section

Assessment: whip count and odds

Bottom line, by the numbers and the calendar.

Senate GOP majority
53seats
Cloture threshold if needed
60votes
Likely Senate ‘Yes’ range (if recorded)
60votes (estimate)
House status
1Passed by voice under suspension (12/09/2025)
  • Baseline whip: Near‑unanimous GOP yes; 5–12 Democratic/Independent crossovers available from Great Lakes and pragmatic blocs if a roll call is forced. Confidence moderate on the crossover band given past tolerance for targeted cormorant control and retained NEPA/MBTA text. [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
  • Timing: December clearance is plausible via UC, but any single‑member hold likely punts final action into early Q1 2026 for a short EPW process and a negotiated package. [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…
  • Net odds: Passage this Congress — high. Passage before holiday recess — moderate. Key risk is a narrow hold keyed to the new private lake/pond manager language, not the core aquaculture reissuance. [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
05 · Section

Sourcing (core references)

Selected authoritative references underpinning the whip and procedural assessment.

  • House passage and debate record (Dec. 9, 2025). [1]Congress.gov — All Info — H.R.2293 (119th): actions and status[19]Congress.gov — Congressional Record reference (CR H5076–H5077)
  • Engrossed House text — scope, added states, lake/pond manager language, NEPA/MBTA savings. [5]Congress.gov — Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025)
  • Senate control and leadership (119th). [2]Associated Press — AP: John Thune elected Senate majority leader as GOP regains…[6]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Majority and Minority Leaders list (119th)
  • EPW chair/subcommittee lineup (jurisdiction and gatekeepers). [4]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman…[7]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW subcommittee assignments (119th)
  • Senate companion S.1255 and cosponsors (regional whip). [8]Congress.gov — All Info — S.1255 (119th): Cormorant Relief Act of 2025
  • Historical/regulatory backdrop on cormorant depredation orders and current permitting regime. [9]USDA APHIS — APHIS: Depredation Orders for Double‑crested Cormorants (backgroun…[10]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Federal Register (Dec. 29, 2020): background…[11]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS FAQ: current depredation permitting (50 CFR…
  • Active interest‑group engagement (support/opposition). [12]National Aquaculture Association — National Aquaculture Association action aler…[13]Audubon — Audubon: critique of expanded cormorant take (opposition context)
  • Cloture threshold and floor mechanics. [14]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — LII/Wex: Cloture in the U.S. Senate (60…
  • Executive context. [18]PBS News (Associated Press) — PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th U.S. Presid…
Sources cited
  1. [1] All Info — H.R.2293 (119th): actions and status Congress.gov
  2. [2] AP: John Thune elected Senate majority leader as GOP regains 53 seats Associated Press
  3. [3] Congress.gov member page — Sen. John Thune (Majority Leader) Congress.gov
  4. [4] EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as EPW Chairman (119th) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  5. [5] Engrossed House text — H.R. 2293 (as passed House 12/09/2025) Congress.gov
  6. [6] U.S. Senate: Majority and Minority Leaders list (119th) U.S. Senate
  7. [7] EPW subcommittee assignments (119th) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  8. [8] All Info — S.1255 (119th): Cormorant Relief Act of 2025 Congress.gov
  9. [9] APHIS: Depredation Orders for Double‑crested Cormorants (background) USDA APHIS
  10. [10] FWS Federal Register (Dec. 29, 2020): background on 2016 vacatur and permitting U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  11. [11] FWS FAQ: current depredation permitting (50 CFR 21.41 / 21.28) U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  12. [12] National Aquaculture Association action alert backing the bill National Aquaculture Association
  13. [13] Audubon: critique of expanded cormorant take (opposition context) Audubon
  14. [14] LII/Wex: Cloture in the U.S. Senate (60‑vote threshold) Legal Information Institute (Cornell)
  15. [15] Web search · turn 16 #0
  16. [16] Web search · turn 16 #2
  17. [17] Web search · turn 7 #4
  18. [18] PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th U.S. President (Jan. 20, 2025) PBS News (Associated Press)
  19. [19] Congressional Record reference (CR H5076–H5077) Congress.gov

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