Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 845 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-845 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 845 Pet and Livestock Protection Act

eco Environmental Protection
Pet and Livestock Protection Act of 2025This bill directs the Department of the Interior to remove protections for the gray wolf under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA). Specifically, the bill...

House GOP leaders have teed up H.R. 845 under a closed rule and have the votes to pass it with near-unanimous Republican support and a small, known set of crossover Democrats; the Senate Republican majority can report the bill from EPW, but a 60‑vote cloture wall makes standalone passage unlikely, pushing proponents toward an appropriations rider strategy akin to the 2011 Northern Rockies wolf rider. Overall odds: House passage high; Senate standalone low; enactment via rider moderate if paired with must‑pass spending. [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 fl…[2]Library of Congress — H.R.845 — 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…[4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…[5]Library of Congress — H.R. 1473 (2011) — Public Law 112‑10 history

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
18 Dec 2025
Updated
18 Dec 2025
Tags
Whip Count · ESA · Interior
Unvetted
01 · Section

Current status and context

- Reported by House Natural Resources on Oct 3, 2025; text includes nationwide delisting order and a no‑judicial‑review clause. Rules Committee secured a closed rule on Dec 16 and the House adopted it 215–209, signaling leadership control of the floor. [6]Library of Congress — H. Rept. 119-332 — Pet and Livestock Protection Act | Con…[7]Library of Congress — Text of H.R.845 — 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.g…[1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 fl… - The bill reissues the Nov 3, 2020 FWS delisting rule that was vacated by a federal court on Feb 10, 2022; litigation posture and the bill’s “no judicial review” language are central to outside‑group engagement. [8]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Final Rule: Removing the Gray Wolf; 85 FR 69…[9]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS policy note referencing 2022 vacatur (Defend… - Senate landscape: Republicans hold the majority; John Thune is Majority Leader and has publicly reaffirmed the 60‑vote filibuster, and EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito controls the committee of referral. [10]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…

  • Primary sponsors and cosponsors are overwhelmingly Republican; committee report filed (H. Rept. 119-332). [2]Library of Congress — H.R.845 — 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[6]Library of Congress — H. Rept. 119-332 — Pet and Livestock Protection Act | Con…
  • Outside alignments are hardened: Farm/ranch and hunting groups support delisting; national environmental groups oppose and are keying votes. [11]American Farm Bureau Federation — AFBF: Fish and Wildlife extends comment perio…[12]Safari Club International — Safari Club International: Supports FWS decision; u…[13]Defenders of Wildlife — Defenders of Wildlife: House Vote Scheduled on Ending G…
  • The White House posture is deregulatory on ESA and historically supportive of wolf delisting (2020 DOI action), reducing veto risk if a bill reaches the President. [14]Associated Press — AP: Trump administration seeks to roll back ESA protections…[15]Web search · turn 16 #1
02 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Bottom line: On the House floor, expect a near party‑line Republican "yes" with a handful of GOP defections offset by a small number of Democratic crossovers familiar from prior wolf votes. In the Senate, Republicans are largely unified but <60 votes for cloture absent concessions (e.g., narrowing to Great Lakes only or dropping the judicial‑review bar).

Chamber Republicans Democrats/Ind. Net read
House Yes: ~210–218; No: 2–6 (watch moderates) Yes: 2–5; No: ~200+ House passage likely under closed rule
Senate Yes: ~50–53 Yes: 3–6 needed for cloture; baseline <60 Standalone cloture unlikely; rider path more viable
  • House evidence: rule adoption 215–209 under a closed rule is a reliable proxy that leadership has the votes to pass the bill or a very similar coalition to do so. Expect some GOP moderation loss on final passage (Fitzpatrick‑type) but offset by a few rural/swing Democrats (e.g., Golden, Cuellar, Perez patterns from 2024). [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 fl…[16]Web search · turn 14 #1
  • Prior floor pattern: the House passed a nationwide wolf delisting in 2024, 209–205, with four Democrats in favor and four Republicans opposed (Fitzpatrick, Gaetz, Garcia, Mace). Expect similar defectors on H.R. 845. [17]Idaho Capital Sun — Idaho Capital Sun: House votes to delist gray wolf; list of…
  • Senate math: With Thune maintaining the 60‑vote threshold and EPW firmly in GOP hands, Republicans can report the bill but will need multiple Democratic/Independent votes on cloture; that is a high bar given environmental‑caucus resistance and the no‑review clause. [4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…
03 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal blocs

Focus on members with either a documented break from party on wolves, environmentally moderate voting records, or constituency exposure to wolf‑livestock conflicts.

  • House GOP potential "no" or lean‑skeptical: Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑01) opposed the 2024 nationwide delisting and has recently bucked leadership on high‑profile votes; similar behavior is plausible on H.R. 845’s no‑review clause. [17]Idaho Capital Sun — Idaho Capital Sun: House votes to delist gray wolf; list of…[18]News result · turn 1 #14
  • House Democratic potential "yes": Henry Cuellar (TX‑28), Jared Golden (ME‑02), Marie Perez (WA‑03) all voted for the 2024 delisting; each represents constituencies where state management arguments can resonate. [16]Web search · turn 14 #1
  • Bill managers/committee power: Chair Bruce Westerman (full committee) and lead House advocates Lauren Boebert and Tom Tiffany are driving floor messaging; Democrats are led by Ranking Member Jared Huffman, who is mobilizing opposition. [19]House Natural Resources Committee — Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resource…[20]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Tom Tiffany: Wolf Delisting Bill Clears Na…[21]House Natural Resources Committee Democrats — Ranking Member Huffman | House Na…
  • Senate swing Democrats to watch for any narrow compromise (not current bill): Tammy Baldwin (WI) has backed region‑specific Great Lakes delisting; Amy Klobuchar (MN) has aligned with that camp in prior EPW debates. Neither has endorsed a nationwide bill with a litigation bar. [22]Web search · turn 8 #2[23]Web search · turn 13 #4
  • Institutional actors: EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito can move the bill to the floor; Majority Leader Thune controls time and will not waive the 60‑vote standard, keeping cloture the key hurdle. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…[4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…
04 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

House leadership has positioned H.R. 845 for swift floor action; Senate leaders can report it but face the cloture wall.

  • House: The rule is closed with one motion to recommit, limiting Democrats’ ability to force policy changes and helping GOP maintain a tight whip. Passage of the rule (215–209) indicates sufficient control for final passage. [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 fl…
  • Senate: Under Thune, Republicans will preserve the filibuster. Without 60, the most credible path is to hitch the text (or a narrowed variant) to Interior/Environment appropriations or a year‑end omnibus—mirroring the 2011 Northern Rockies rider that delisted wolves and limited review. [4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…[5]Library of Congress — H.R. 1473 (2011) — Public Law 112‑10 history[24]Center for Biological Diversity — Center for Biological Diversity: Court reluct…
  • Committee posture: EPW Republicans are favorable; Natural Resources Democrats (Huffman) will continue generating record and media to raise the political cost of crossovers, especially around the bill’s “no judicial review” section. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…[21]House Natural Resources Committee Democrats — Ranking Member Huffman | House Na…
05 · Section

Interest groups and stakeholder pressure

The outside map is unusually clear and will influence swing‑district members.

  • Support: American Farm Bureau Federation, Safari Club International, and allied ranching/hunting organizations are pressing for legislative delisting and celebrating the 2020 Trump‑era rule as precedent. [11]American Farm Bureau Federation — AFBF: Fish and Wildlife extends comment perio…[12]Safari Club International — Safari Club International: Supports FWS decision; u…[15]Web search · turn 16 #1
  • Opposition: Defenders of Wildlife and allied environmental groups are mobilizing against H.R. 845, highlighting both species‑status disputes and the no‑review provision; they are actively whipping House and Senate Democrats. [13]Defenders of Wildlife — Defenders of Wildlife: House Vote Scheduled on Ending G…
  • Policy backdrop: The 2020 nationwide delisting was vacated in 2022; FWS documentation of that ruling—and the administration’s current deregulatory ESA posture—shapes both the legal context and the politics. [9]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS policy note referencing 2022 vacatur (Defend…[14]Associated Press — AP: Trump administration seeks to roll back ESA protections…
06 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Power, procedure, and timing — not science — will decide H.R. 845’s fate.

House floor passage (standalone)
80% likelihood
Senate cloture on standalone bill
25% likelihood
Enactment via rider on must‑pass
45% likelihood
  • House: With a closed rule already adopted and visible precedents for limited defections on wolves, expect passage. Watch for 2–6 GOP "no" votes and 2–5 Democratic "yes" votes netting a comfortable but narrow margin. [1]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 fl…[17]Idaho Capital Sun — Idaho Capital Sun: House votes to delist gray wolf; list of…
  • Senate: EPW can report the bill, but leadership’s commitment to the 60‑vote threshold means cloture fails unless the bill narrows (e.g., Great Lakes‑only) or drops the litigation bar; neither concession is in the current House text. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of E…[4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leade…
  • Fallback path: Packaging as an Interior/Environment rider—modeled on the 2011 delisting rider—offers the best shot, but it will compete with other riders and could draw a veto threat only if broader politics shift; present White House signaling on ESA is deregulatory. [5]Library of Congress — H.R. 1473 (2011) — Public Law 112‑10 history[24]Center for Biological Diversity — Center for Biological Diversity: Court reluct…[14]Associated Press — AP: Trump administration seeks to roll back ESA protections…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Republican Cloakroom: Tuesday December 16, 2025 floor results (H. Res. 951) House Republican Cloakroom
  2. [2] H.R.845 — 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov Library of Congress
  3. [3] EPW Majority News: Capito to serve as Chairman of EPW (119th) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  4. [4] SDPB: Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; preserves filibuster South Dakota Public Broadcasting
  5. [5] H.R. 1473 (2011) — Public Law 112‑10 history Library of Congress
  6. [6] H. Rept. 119-332 — Pet and Livestock Protection Act | Congress.gov Library of Congress
  7. [7] Text of H.R.845 — 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov Library of Congress
  8. [8] FWS Final Rule: Removing the Gray Wolf; 85 FR 69778 (Nov. 3, 2020) U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  9. [9] FWS policy note referencing 2022 vacatur (Defenders of Wildlife v. USFWS) U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  10. [10] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Office of Sen. John Thune
  11. [11] AFBF: Fish and Wildlife extends comment period for gray wolf delisting American Farm Bureau Federation
  12. [12] Safari Club International: Supports FWS decision; urges removing wolves from federal management Safari Club International
  13. [13] Defenders of Wildlife: House Vote Scheduled on Ending Gray Wolf Protections Defenders of Wildlife
  14. [14] AP: Trump administration seeks to roll back ESA protections (policy posture) Associated Press
  15. [15] Web search · turn 16 #1
  16. [16] Web search · turn 14 #1
  17. [17] Idaho Capital Sun: House votes to delist gray wolf; list of crossovers Idaho Capital Sun
  18. [18] News result · turn 1 #14
  19. [19] Chairman Westerman | House Natural Resources Committee House Natural Resources Committee
  20. [20] Rep. Tom Tiffany: Wolf Delisting Bill Clears Natural Resources Committee U.S. House of Representatives
  21. [21] Ranking Member Huffman | House Natural Resources Democrats House Natural Resources Committee Democrats
  22. [22] Web search · turn 8 #2
  23. [23] Web search · turn 13 #4
  24. [24] Center for Biological Diversity: Court reluctantly upholds 2011 wolf rider Center for Biological Diversity
  25. [25] Web search · turn 13 #6

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