Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 2306 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-2306 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 2306 Adams Memorial-Great American Heroes Act

settings Government Operations and Politics
The Adams Memorial-Great American Heroes ActThis bill extends through 2032 the Adams Memorial Commission, whose purpose is to establish a permanent memorial in Washington, DC, to honor John Adams and...

H.R. 2306 has bipartisan backing, cleared House Natural Resources by UC, and sits on the Union Calendar. Expect House consideration on a Monday–Wednesday suspension block with strong cross‑party support. In the Senate (GOP majority; Thune leader), this is well‑suited for hotline/UC—though the bill’s Reserve language is the only plausible tripwire. Net: high likelihood of passage this session; watch for a narrow Senate amendment cabining the Reserve fallback. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS: Monuments and Memorials Authorized Under the CWA –…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
03 Nov 2025
Updated
03 Nov 2025
Tags
whip count · House floor · Senate UC
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Where the votes likely are, based on public actions, committee activity, and chamber control.

  • House (Republican majority; Speaker Mike Johnson): Committee reported the bill (H. Rept. 119-353) and it’s on the Union Calendar (No. 305). That, plus a bipartisan sponsorship slate (MA Democrats, VA Democrats, and GOP co-sponsors) points to broad support. Expect leadership to route it via suspension, where recent practice confines such votes to Mon–Wed; 2/3 threshold is achievable for a noncontroversial memorial bill. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)[2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…
  • Senate (Republican majority; Majority Leader John Thune): Measures of this type typically clear by unanimous consent after hotline; with Thune controlling floor time, this fits the UC bucket. Committee of jurisdiction is Energy & Natural Resources (Chair Mike Lee; Ranking Member Martin Heinrich). [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[6]Senate ENR (official) — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Hei…
  • Institutional backdrop: Both chambers under GOP control for the 119th Congress; House Speaker is Mike Johnson. That alignment reduces inter‑chamber friction on a commemorative bill. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (composition and leadership)[8]Associated Press — AP: 119th Congress opens; Mike Johnson reelected Speaker
  • Potential pockets of resistance: The reported text includes a conditional siting fallback that could allow location “within the Reserve,” a zone where new commemorative works are generally prohibited by statute and policy. Expect some Mall‑preservation voices to probe or narrow this clause. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[9]LII / Cornell Law — 40 U.S.C. § 8908 – Areas I and II (Reserve)
Caucus/Bloc Likely posture Notes
House GOP Favorable Committee reported by UC; bill is on Union Calendar; leadership can use suspension to avoid rule drama. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…
House Democrats Mostly favorable Multiple Democratic cosponsors (MA, VA); minor Reserve-policy concerns possible among Mall‑preservation advocates. [5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)[10]Web search · turn 6 #6
Senate GOP Favorable Low-cost, commemorative; fits UC/hotline path under Thune. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[11]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Un…
Senate Democrats/Ind. Generally favorable No clear public opposition; potential asks to cabin Reserve fallback before UC. [4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS: Monuments and Memorials Authorized Under the CWA –…
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal swing considerations

Members with leverage either through position, jurisdiction, or stakeholder interest.

  • House: Chair Bruce Westerman (Natural Resources) – moved the bill; his backing signals majority support inside the panel and with floor managers. [12]House Natural Resources (official) — House Committee on Natural Resources – Cha…
  • House: Ranking Member Jared Huffman – leads Democrats on Natural Resources; no recorded committee opposition (UC report) suggests he won’t whip against, but he could seek clarifying language on siting. [13]Web search · turn 8 #0[1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…
  • House: Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton – long‑time Mall‑policy defender; while not on ENR jurisdiction, she often weighs in on Reserve questions. Watch statements as floor nears. [14]Congress.gov — Hearing text: THE FUTURE OF THE NATIONAL MALL (NCPC position on…
  • Senate: Mike Lee (Chair, Energy & Natural Resources) – gatekeeper for hearings/clearance if the bill is referred; could agree to UC if no holds emerge. [6]Senate ENR (official) — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Hei…
  • Senate: Martin Heinrich (Ranking, ENR) – potential broker for any Democratic concerns on Reserve language; his buy‑in smooths hotline. [6]Senate ENR (official) — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Hei…
  • DC‑area Senators (Warner, Kaine, Van Hollen, Alsobrooks) – often attentive to Mall/Reserve precedent; not an organized bloc, but a logical source of holds if any. [10]Web search · turn 6 #6
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

How leaders can, and likely will, move the bill.

  • House scheduling: With the bill reported and on the Union Calendar, leadership has two clean paths. Most likely is suspension of the rules on a Mon–Wed block (40 minutes debate, no floor amendments, 2/3 threshold). Less likely is a rule sending it to the Committee of the Whole from the Union Calendar. Suspension avoids rule‑vote vulnerabilities and is standard for noncontroversial commemorative items. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…[15]Wikipedia — Committee of the Whole – how Union Calendar bills are handled
  • Senate path: Standard play is to hotline and clear by unanimous consent. If any Senator places a hold, the fallback is referral to ENR and/or Rule XIV placement on the calendar, but UC remains the efficient default for low‑controversy memorials. [11]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Un…
  • Leadership leverage: Thune (Senate) and Johnson/Scalise (House) control floor timing in GOP‑run chambers. Their procedural options favor quick passage when there’s bipartisan cover and minimal cost exposure. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[8]Associated Press — AP: 119th Congress opens; Mike Johnson reelected Speaker
04 · Section

Assessment: odds and timing

Bottom line and confidence levels, grounded in public record.

House passage likelihood (this session)
90% confidence
Senate clearance likelihood (this session)
80% confidence
Overall enactment likelihood (this session)
85% confidence
Documented cosponsors
8members
Committee action
1Reported UC
  • Rationale – House: Bipartisan sponsorship, UC committee report, and standard suspension handling for memorial bills → high odds. [5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)[1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…[2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…
  • Rationale – Senate: GOP‑run chamber; ENR jurisdiction aligned; UC/hotline customary for low‑friction items. Single point of friction is Reserve fallback; expect either quiet UC or a narrow amendment to cabin siting before UC. [6]Senate ENR (official) — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Hei…[11]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Un…[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS: Monuments and Memorials Authorized Under the CWA –…
  • Timing: Earliest clean window is a Mon–Wed suspension series on the House floor, followed by Senate UC in the same or subsequent work week if no holds surface. [2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…[11]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Un…
05 · Section

Sourcing notes (selected)

Load‑bearing sources used for whip assumptions, institutional roles, and procedural assessment.

  • Bill status and text: Congress.gov bill page and reported text showing Union Calendar No. 305 and H. Rept. 119‑353. [1]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Re…
  • Cosponsors: Congress.gov cosponsor roster (bipartisan). [5]Congress.gov — H.R. 2306 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)
  • Chamber control and leaders: 119th Congress composition; Speaker Johnson reelection; Thune as Majority Leader. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (composition and leadership)[8]Associated Press — AP: 119th Congress opens; Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • Committee chairs/jurisdiction: House Natural Resources (Westerman); Senate ENR leadership. [12]House Natural Resources (official) — House Committee on Natural Resources – Cha…[6]Senate ENR (official) — Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Hei…
  • Procedures: House suspension practice; Union Calendar/Committee of the Whole; Senate UC/hotline and Rule XIV options. [2]CRS via Congress.gov — House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 1…[15]Wikipedia — Committee of the Whole – how Union Calendar bills are handled[11]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Un…
  • Policy constraint: Reserve prohibition and recent precedent (GWOT memorial Reserve authorization) guiding potential Senate tweaks. [9]LII / Cornell Law — 40 U.S.C. § 8908 – Areas I and II (Reserve)[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS: Monuments and Memorials Authorized Under the CWA –…
Sources cited
  1. [1] H.R. 2306 text (Reported in House) with Union Calendar and H. Rept. 119-353 Congress.gov
  2. [2] House Rules Changes Affecting Floor Proceedings in the 119th Congress (CRS) CRS via Congress.gov
  3. [3] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader (press release) Office of Sen. John Thune
  4. [4] CRS: Monuments and Memorials Authorized Under the CWA – in‑progress and lapsed works (Reserve precedent) CRS via Congress.gov
  5. [5] H.R. 2306 – Cosponsors (119th Congress) Congress.gov
  6. [6] Senate Energy & Natural Resources – Lee (Chair) and Heinrich (Ranking) announce subcommittees Senate ENR (official)
  7. [7] 119th United States Congress (composition and leadership) Wikipedia
  8. [8] AP: 119th Congress opens; Mike Johnson reelected Speaker Associated Press
  9. [9] 40 U.S.C. § 8908 – Areas I and II (Reserve) LII / Cornell Law
  10. [10] Web search · turn 6 #6
  11. [11] CRS RS22299 – Bypassing Senate Committees: Rule XIV and Unanimous Consent EveryCRSReport.com
  12. [12] House Committee on Natural Resources – Chairman Bruce Westerman House Natural Resources (official)
  13. [13] Web search · turn 8 #0
  14. [14] Hearing text: THE FUTURE OF THE NATIONAL MALL (NCPC position on the Reserve) Congress.gov
  15. [15] Committee of the Whole – how Union Calendar bills are handled Wikipedia

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