Analyses / Prediction Analysis / 119 · SJRES 89 Prediction Analysis

119-SJRES-89 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

119 · SJRES 89 A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management relating to "Buffalo Field Office Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan Amendment".

park Public Lands and Natural Resources
This joint resolution nullifies the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on November 20, 2024, which amended the 2015 resource management plan (RMP) for the Buffalo Field Office in...
Overall likelihood of enactment (Q4 2025)
90 % (range 85–95%)
Senate control
53 R seats (53–47) [1]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53–47
Senate vote threshold under CRA
51 simple majority; non‑filibusterable [4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…
House control
220 R to 215 D (narrow majority) [10]Web search · turn 2 #14
Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
10 Oct 2025
Updated
10 Oct 2025
Tags
Whipline · CRA · BLM
Vetted
01 · Section

Document 119-SJRES-89: CRA disapproval of BLM’s Buffalo Field Office RMPA

Sponsors: Sen. Cynthia Lummis with Sen. John Barrasso; introduced October 8, 2025; referred to Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR). The resolution targets BLM’s November 20, 2024 Record of Decision/Approved RMP Amendment for the Buffalo Field Office, which GAO has determined is a “rule” under the CRA. [6]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.89 — 119th Congress: Bill overview[7]Federal Register (hosted on FWS.gov) — Federal Register (Nov. 27, 2024): Notice…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision…

  • Vehicle: Joint resolution of disapproval under 5 U.S.C. ch. 8 (CRA).
  • Jurisdiction: Senate ENR; House Natural Resources.
  • White House posture: publicly advancing coal leasing/energy dominance; signature highly likely if it reaches the President. [5]WhiteHouse.gov — Executive Order: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Co…[9]WhiteHouse.gov — White House Fact Sheet: Reinvigorating America’s Coal Industry
02 · Section

Passage Probability

Bottom line: very high given chamber control, CRA mechanics, and aligned executive branch policy.

Overall likelihood of enactment (Q4 2025)
90% (range 85–95%)
Senate control
53R seats (53–47) [1]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53–47
Senate vote threshold under CRA
51simple majority; non‑filibusterable [4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…
House control
220R to 215 D (narrow majority) [10]Web search · turn 2 #14
  • Senate math favors passage: GOP holds 53 seats; CRA disapprovals are debate‑limited and cannot be filibustered; final passage requires a simple majority. Even with a few R defections, leadership can close with 50+1. [1]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53–47[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…
  • Committee posture: ENR is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee; membership includes Barrasso. If ENR does not act, 30 signatures can discharge after 20 calendar days—recently used on a parallel BLM CRA (Miles City). [3]Congress.gov — S.Res. 26 (119th): Constituting majority party membership on com…[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…[11]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.61 (Miles City CRA): Senate actions — ENR discharged; pl…
  • House pathway is proven: similar BLM RMPA CRA (Miles City) passed the House on a special rule in September. Expect the Rules Committee to provide a closed rule here as well. [12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…[13]Web search · turn 9 #8
  • Executive alignment: The White House has ordered an “energy dominance” posture and highlighted coal; signing is consistent with stated policy. [5]WhiteHouse.gov — Executive Order: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Co…[9]WhiteHouse.gov — White House Fact Sheet: Reinvigorating America’s Coal Industry
  • Issue substance aligns with GOP conference priorities (Wyoming delegation is unified; bicameral filings underway, including the House companion). [14]Web search · turn 8 #1[15]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.130 — 119th Congress: Text (Buffalo companion)
03 · Section

Obstacles

Risks are manageable but real; most are timing and floor‑management issues rather than vote‑count problems.

  • Calendar congestion: Appropriations and shutdown brinkmanship can compress floor time; leadership may bunch multiple CRA land‑use disapprovals into one work period, but slippage could push final action past Thanksgiving. [16]News result · turn 1 #17
  • House margin management: With a narrow majority, absences or a handful of crossover defections could require tactical vote‑sequencing similar to prior CRA votes. Precedent suggests passage remains likely. [10]Web search · turn 2 #14[12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…
  • Process windows: CRA fast‑track is available within 60 Senate session days from submission; GAO’s September 18, 2025 decision clarified the action is a “rule,” removing doubt about eligibility, but managers must still sequence discharge/proceed motions correctly. [8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision…[4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…
  • Potential moderates: A few R moderates occasionally balk on conservation optics, but on coal‑leasing questions the conference has held together on earlier, analogous votes. [12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…
04 · Section

Short‑Term Consequences

Immediate impacts depend on enactment vs. failure.

  • If enacted: The Buffalo RMPA “shall have no force or effect,” and BLM is barred from issuing a “substantially the same” rule absent new statutory authority. Practically, that lifts the RMPA’s blanket prohibition on new coal leasing through 2038 and reopens case‑by‑case leasing consideration while Interior recalibrates planning. [17]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): F…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision…
  • If enacted: Expect Interior/BLM to move leasing nominations and parcel reviews in the Buffalo FO back into the queue, consistent with the administration’s broader leasing acceleration. [18]Web search · turn 7 #7
  • If it stalls or fails: The Buffalo RMPA’s no‑new‑leasing directive remains operative; litigation context continues to frame BLM’s planning, prolonging uncertainty for PRB producers. [8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision…
05 · Section

Long‑Term Consequences

Structural and political effects looking beyond the immediate vote.

  • Policy lock‑in: CRA’s “substantially the same” bar constrains future Buffalo‑area land‑use plans that would re‑instate a no‑leasing posture without new congressional authorization—raising the legislative hurdle for any reversal by a subsequent administration. [17]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): F…
  • Precedent/momentum: Congress has already moved CRAs against other BLM field‑office RMPAs (Miles City; North Dakota; Central Yukon). A successful Buffalo disapproval cements a pattern of using CRA on land‑use ROD/RMPAs, not just classic notice‑and‑comment regs. [12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…[19]Web search · turn 8 #6
  • Market reality check: Even with policy tailwinds, coal demand is structurally challenged; AP and prior reporting show lease offerings expanding amid long‑term demand headwinds and plant retirements. Translation: policy win, tempered volume outlook. [20]Associated Press — AP: Trump reviving large sales of coal from public lands; de…[21]Reuters — U.S. proposes end to PRB coal leasing (background on Biden-era plan)
  • Coal‑state politics: Passage reinforces GOP standing in WY/MT/ND and among energy‑sector constituencies, at minimal intra‑conference cost. National environmental backlash is likely but has limited immediate procedural leverage. [22]News result · turn 7 #12
06 · Section

Forecast

Most probable outcome and timing, with secondary scenarios.

  • Base case (≈70%): ENR discharge or quick markup late October; Senate floor within a 10‑hour cap; final passage with 50+ Rs; House adopts a closed rule and passes with near‑party‑line vote; President signs before year‑end 2025. [4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…[11]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.61 (Miles City CRA): Senate actions — ENR discharged; pl…[13]Web search · turn 9 #8[5]WhiteHouse.gov — Executive Order: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Co…
  • Alt timing (≈20%): Floor time slips amid funding fights; enactment in early Q1 2026, still within CRA action windows. [16]News result · turn 1 #17
  • Low‑probability derailers (≈10% total): A narrow House whip miss due to absences; unexpected Senate attendance issues; or strategic decision to package multiple land‑use CRAs and delay for leverage. Recent CRA votes suggest these are manageable. [12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…
07 · Section

Sourcing (selected)

Key procedural, political, and bill‑specific references used throughout this assessment.

  • Bill status/details: S.J.Res. 89 (Lummis); H.J.Res. 130 (Hageman) companion. [6]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.89 — 119th Congress: Bill overview[15]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.130 — 119th Congress: Text (Buffalo companion)
  • Underlying rule and GAO determination: Federal Register notice; GAO decision printed in Congressional Record (Buffalo RMPA deemed a rule; prohibits new coal leasing through 2038). [7]Federal Register (hosted on FWS.gov) — Federal Register (Nov. 27, 2024): Notice…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision…
  • CRA mechanics: CRS primers on fast‑track, discharge, and “substantially the same.” [4]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA)…[17]CRS via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): F…
  • Senate/committee control: GOP 53–47; Thune as Majority Leader; ENR chaired by Sen. Mike Lee; majority membership set by S.Res. 26. [1]Washington Post — Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53–47[2]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader…[3]Congress.gov — S.Res. 26 (119th): Constituting majority party membership on com…
  • Momentum/precedent: House passage of Miles City CRA; Senate discharge/calendar placement for S.J.Res. 61; related House CRA activity on land‑use plans. [12]Congress.gov — H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–20…[11]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.61 (Miles City CRA): Senate actions — ENR discharged; pl…
  • Executive posture: Energy dominance EO/fact sheets and DOI/BLM actions consistent with signing a CRA disapproval. [5]WhiteHouse.gov — Executive Order: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Co…[9]WhiteHouse.gov — White House Fact Sheet: Reinvigorating America’s Coal Industry[23]blm.gov — BLM blog: Delivering administration priorities (coal leasing expansio…
  • Market context: AP/Reuters reporting on coal leasing push and demand headwinds. [20]Associated Press — AP: Trump reviving large sales of coal from public lands; de…[21]Reuters — U.S. proposes end to PRB coal leasing (background on Biden-era plan)
Sources cited
  1. [1] Meet the 119th Congress: Republicans control the Senate 53–47 Washington Post
  2. [2] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in South Dakota Public Broadcasting
  3. [3] S.Res. 26 (119th): Constituting majority party membership on committees (incl. ENR) Congress.gov
  4. [4] CRS In Focus IF10023: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): A Brief Overview CRS via Congress.gov
  5. [5] Executive Order: Establishing the National Energy Dominance Council WhiteHouse.gov
  6. [6] S.J.Res.89 — 119th Congress: Bill overview Congress.gov
  7. [7] Federal Register (Nov. 27, 2024): Notice of Availability — BLM Buffalo Field Office ROD/RMPA Federal Register (hosted on FWS.gov)
  8. [8] Congressional Record S6825–S6826 (Sept. 29, 2025): GAO decision B-337503 on Buffalo RMPA (printed) Congress.gov
  9. [9] White House Fact Sheet: Reinvigorating America’s Coal Industry WhiteHouse.gov
  10. [10] Web search · turn 2 #14
  11. [11] S.J.Res.61 (Miles City CRA): Senate actions — ENR discharged; placed on calendar Congress.gov
  12. [12] H.J.Res.104 (Miles City CRA): All info and House passage (211–208) Congress.gov
  13. [13] Web search · turn 9 #8
  14. [14] Web search · turn 8 #1
  15. [15] H.J.Res.130 — 119th Congress: Text (Buffalo companion) Congress.gov
  16. [16] News result · turn 1 #17
  17. [17] CRS Report R43992: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): Frequently Asked Questions CRS via Congress.gov
  18. [18] Web search · turn 7 #7
  19. [19] Web search · turn 8 #6
  20. [20] AP: Trump reviving large sales of coal from public lands; demand headwinds context Associated Press
  21. [21] U.S. proposes end to PRB coal leasing (background on Biden-era plan) Reuters
  22. [22] News result · turn 7 #12
  23. [23] BLM blog: Delivering administration priorities (coal leasing expansion highlights) blm.gov

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