Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 5756 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-5756 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5756 HEATS Act

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Home Energy Assistance in Times of Shutdown Act or the HEATS ActThis bill provides appropriations for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) during any period in which there is a...

Republicans control the White House, Senate, and House in the 119th Congress, and leadership is using the shutdown standoff to resist carve‑outs. LIHEAP has visible bipartisan champions, but H.R. 5756 is unlikely to move as a standalone; its best (still limited) path is as a rider on a broader reopening vehicle or an appropriations mini‑bus. Overall passage odds: low standalone; moderate if packaged late in negotiations. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia[2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
15 Oct 2025
Updated
15 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · appropriations · shutdown
Unvetted
01 · Section

Bill and Context

H.R. 5756 (HEATS Act) would appropriate "such sums as are necessary" to fund LIHEAP during any lapse in discretionary appropriations, with House referral to Appropriations on October 14, 2025. LIHEAP’s authorizing statute is 42 U.S.C. § 8621 et seq. The federal government is in a shutdown as of October 1, 2025, and House floor activity is tightly controlled by the Speaker. [3]Legal Information Institute — 42 U.S. Code § 8621 - Home energy grants[2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…

  • Institutional control: GOP holds Senate and House; Senate Majority Leader is John Thune; House Speaker is Mike Johnson. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[5]Wikipedia — Mike Johnson - Wikipedia
  • Appropriations gatekeepers: House full committee chaired by Tom Cole; House L-HHS subcommittee chaired by Robert Aderholt; Senate Appropriations chaired by Susan Collins; Senate L-HHS subcommittee chaired by Shelley Moore Capito. [6]House Appropriations Committee (R) — Cole Takes Oath of Office for 119th Congre…[7]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Appropriations L-HHS…[8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…
  • Shutdown environment: Administration and congressional leaders are entrenched; the House has been kept out of session during parts of the standoff. [2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…[9]The Guardian — US Senate again rejects Republican plan to end government shutdo…
02 · Section

Breakdown: Expected Support and Opposition

Expect broad Democratic support in both chambers and selective Republican crossover where LIHEAP has strong local salience (cold‑weather states, seniors). Leadership resistance to program‑by‑program carve‑outs remains the primary headwind.

  • House Democrats: Near‑unanimous likely support; caucus messaging emphasizes protecting household cost‑of‑living and safety‑net programs and routinely promotes LIHEAP to constituents. [10]Office of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries — Leader Jeffries and DPCC statement marking Hou…[11]Office of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries — Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIH…
  • House Republicans: Leadership unlikely to advance a carve‑out while shutdown leverage is in play; however, a small bloc of moderates from cold‑weather districts has publicly defended LIHEAP’s continuation (e.g., Rep. Mike Lawler) and may support targeted relief if given a vote. [2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…[12]Newsmax — GOP Rep. Lawler Wants Heating Assistance Program Maintained
  • Senate Democrats/Independents: Strong support; members have pressed HHS to maintain LIHEAP operations and opposed proposed eliminations. [13]Office of Sen. Dick Durbin — Durbin joins bipartisan effort urging reversal of…[14]Web search · turn 16 #1
  • Senate Republicans: Committee‑level support is evident among appropriators from cold states (Collins, Murkowski, Capito), but floor strategy is set by the Majority Leader and 60‑vote dynamics; leadership has prioritized a single broader funding deal over carve‑outs. [15]Office of Sen. Susan Collins — Senator Collins, Bipartisan Group Urge Administr…[16]Office of Sen. Susan Collins — Senator Collins Questions HHS Secretary on Elimi…[8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
  • Interest groups/utilities: AGA, APPA, NEADA, and NLIHC have pushed to maintain LIHEAP operations/funding, adding bipartisan outside pressure. [17]American Gas Association — AGA Applauds Release of Remaining LIHEAP Funds[18]American Public Power Association — APPA Provides Update on LIHEAP During Shutd…[19]Web search · turn 7 #5[20]National Low Income Housing Coalition — Entire LIHEAP Staff at HHS Fired, Jeopa…
03 · Section

Key Legislators (Swing/Pivotal)

These actors either control the pipes or have publicly staked out positions that could move votes.

  • Speaker Mike Johnson (House): Controls floor access; has kept the House away during the shutdown, signaling opposition to program‑specific carve‑outs. If Johnson green‑lights a floor vote (under suspension or a special rule), the bill’s prospects rise sharply. [5]Wikipedia — Mike Johnson - Wikipedia[2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…
  • Chair Tom Cole (House Appropriations): First choke point. Without his blessing (or a rule from leadership), H.R. 5756 stalls in committee. [6]House Appropriations Committee (R) — Cole Takes Oath of Office for 119th Congre…
  • Chair Robert Aderholt (House L‑HHS): Subcommittee gatekeeper for LIHEAP accounts; posture suggests preference to handle LIHEAP inside regular L‑HHS/CR vehicles rather than a shutdown carve‑out. [7]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Appropriations L-HHS…
  • Majority Leader John Thune (Senate): Controls floor timing; has affirmed keeping the 60‑vote filibuster, limiting the path for a standalone carve‑out absent broad GOP buy‑in. [4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
  • Chair Susan Collins (Senate Appropriations): Longtime LIHEAP champion; has pressed HHS on staffing/funding and could advocate internally for inclusion in a bipartisan package. [15]Office of Sen. Susan Collins — Senator Collins, Bipartisan Group Urge Administr…[16]Office of Sen. Susan Collins — Senator Collins Questions HHS Secretary on Elimi…
  • Chair Shelley Moore Capito (Senate L‑HHS): Subcommittee with jurisdiction over LIHEAP; West Virginia exposure to heating costs plus her gavel make her a prime target for any bipartisan add‑on. [8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK): Regular LIHEAP ally in prior letters; potential public validator for a narrow fix. [21]Web search · turn 6 #3
  • Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑NY): Publicly defended LIHEAP and co‑led a bipartisan bill to restore LIHEAP staffing; likely "yes" if leadership permits a vote. [12]Newsmax — GOP Rep. Lawler Wants Heating Assistance Program Maintained[22]Congress.gov — Text - H.R. 3876 (119th): LIHEAP Staffing Support Act
  • Leader Hakeem Jeffries (House Minority): Public posture favors protecting programs like LIHEAP amid the shutdown fight, ensuring unified Democratic votes. [10]Office of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries — Leader Jeffries and DPCC statement marking Hou…
04 · Section

Leadership Influence and Procedural Dynamics

Where this lives procedurally and how leaders can (or won’t) move it.

  • House: With Republicans in control, a simple path would require the Speaker to schedule H.R. 5756 under suspension (2/3 threshold) or a special rule from Rules; absent that, the measure dies in Appropriations. Discharge is too slow for the shutdown window. Leadership has held the House out, dampening near‑term floor prospects. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia[2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…
  • Senate: GOP majority plus filibuster means a standalone LIHEAP carve‑out needs 60. The Majority Leader has emphasized preserving the 60‑vote threshold, pushing stakeholders toward inclusion within a broader CR/minibus rather than a one‑off. [4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
  • Appropriations path: LIHEAP accounts sit in L‑HHS. Chairs Aderholt (House) and Capito (Senate) are the functional fulcrum if leadership opts to bundle LIHEAP continuity into a larger package. [7]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Appropriations L-HHS…[8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…
  • Issue salience: Administration actions (HHS LIHEAP staff firings; delayed operations) and utility/anti‑poverty advocacy increase cross‑pressure on cold‑state Republicans, but the same actions have hardened leadership against piecemeal bills during the shutdown. [23]AP News — Trump administration fires staff of program that helps low-income hou…[24]The Washington Post — DOGE cuts and Trump's plans leave a heating assistance pr…[17]American Gas Association — AGA Applauds Release of Remaining LIHEAP Funds
05 · Section

Assessment: Likelihood of Passage

Bottom line from a vote‑counter’s vantage point.

Standalone passage (House) in next 2–3 weeks
15%
Standalone passage (Senate) in next 2–3 weeks
10%
Inclusion as a rider in a broader reopening/CR package
40%
Overall odds this Congress (any vehicle)
45%
  • Rationale – House: Democratic unity + a handful of GOP moderates (e.g., Lawler) likely support, but floor control and shutdown strategy dominate. Suspension would need dozens of GOP ayes—unlikely without leadership blessing. [12]Newsmax — GOP Rep. Lawler Wants Heating Assistance Program Maintained[2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…
  • Rationale – Senate: 60‑vote hurdle and majority’s preference for a single deal reduce prospects for a clean LIHEAP carve‑out; bipartisan appropriators could secure language in a larger package. [4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…
  • Timing window: As winter heating season and constituent demand peak, pressure from utilities/advocates (AGA, APPA, NEADA, NLIHC) will intensify; if leaders cut a reopening deal, LIHEAP language is a plausible sweetener. [17]American Gas Association — AGA Applauds Release of Remaining LIHEAP Funds[18]American Public Power Association — APPA Provides Update on LIHEAP During Shutd…[25]Web search · turn 14 #0[20]National Low Income Housing Coalition — Entire LIHEAP Staff at HHS Fired, Jeopa…
06 · Section

Sourcing (selected)

References underpinning leadership control, committee jurisdiction, shutdown posture, and member positions.

  • Chamber control/leadership: GOP majorities; Thune majority leader; Johnson speaker; Jeffries minority leader. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[5]Wikipedia — Mike Johnson - Wikipedia[26]Congress.gov — Congressional Record (Jan 3, 2025): Minority Leader designation…
  • Appropriations chairs/jurisdiction: House (Cole; Aderholt L‑HHS); Senate (Collins chair; Capito L‑HHS). [6]House Appropriations Committee (R) — Cole Takes Oath of Office for 119th Congre…[7]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Appropriations L-HHS…[8]U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee — Collins, Murray announce Appropriations…
  • Shutdown posture and House schedule control. [2]AP News — Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's…
  • LIHEAP program law and recent operational disruptions (staff firings; partial releases). [3]Legal Information Institute — 42 U.S. Code § 8621 - Home energy grants[23]AP News — Trump administration fires staff of program that helps low-income hou…[24]The Washington Post — DOGE cuts and Trump's plans leave a heating assistance pr…[27]Administration for Children & Families (HHS) — HHS to Release an Additional $40…
  • Advocacy/industry pressure and bipartisan letters. [17]American Gas Association — AGA Applauds Release of Remaining LIHEAP Funds[18]American Public Power Association — APPA Provides Update on LIHEAP During Shutd…[20]National Low Income Housing Coalition — Entire LIHEAP Staff at HHS Fired, Jeopa…[15]Office of Sen. Susan Collins — Senator Collins, Bipartisan Group Urge Administr…[13]Office of Sen. Dick Durbin — Durbin joins bipartisan effort urging reversal of…
  • Identified GOP swing in House: Rep. Mike Lawler statements and LIHEAP staffing bill. [12]Newsmax — GOP Rep. Lawler Wants Heating Assistance Program Maintained[22]Congress.gov — Text - H.R. 3876 (119th): LIHEAP Staffing Support Act
  • Senate floor dynamic (60‑vote filibuster preserved). [4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
Sources cited
  1. [1] 119th United States Congress - Wikipedia Wikipedia
  2. [2] Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away, canceling another week's session as shutdown drags AP News
  3. [3] 42 U.S. Code § 8621 - Home energy grants Legal Information Institute
  4. [4] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in SDPB
  5. [5] Mike Johnson - Wikipedia Wikipedia
  6. [6] Cole Takes Oath of Office for 119th Congress | House Appropriations Republicans House Appropriations Committee (R)
  7. [7] House Appropriations L-HHS Subcommittee roster (Clerk of the House) Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  8. [8] Collins, Murray announce Appropriations subcommittee leadership and rosters for the 119th Congress U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee
  9. [9] US Senate again rejects Republican plan to end government shutdown The Guardian
  10. [10] Leader Jeffries and DPCC statement marking House Democrats' Cost of Living Week of Action Office of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries
  11. [11] Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) – Rep. Hakeem Jeffries Office of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries
  12. [12] GOP Rep. Lawler Wants Heating Assistance Program Maintained Newsmax
  13. [13] Durbin joins bipartisan effort urging reversal of LIHEAP staffing cuts Office of Sen. Dick Durbin
  14. [14] Web search · turn 16 #1
  15. [15] Senator Collins, Bipartisan Group Urge Administration to Reverse LIHEAP Staffing Cuts Office of Sen. Susan Collins
  16. [16] Senator Collins Questions HHS Secretary on Elimination of LIHEAP Office of Sen. Susan Collins
  17. [17] AGA Applauds Release of Remaining LIHEAP Funds American Gas Association
  18. [18] APPA Provides Update on LIHEAP During Shutdown American Public Power Association
  19. [19] Web search · turn 7 #5
  20. [20] Entire LIHEAP Staff at HHS Fired, Jeopardizing Distribution of Assistance National Low Income Housing Coalition
  21. [21] Web search · turn 6 #3
  22. [22] Text - H.R. 3876 (119th): LIHEAP Staffing Support Act Congress.gov
  23. [23] Trump administration fires staff of program that helps low-income households pay for heat AP News
  24. [24] DOGE cuts and Trump's plans leave a heating assistance program in limbo The Washington Post
  25. [25] Web search · turn 14 #0
  26. [26] Congressional Record (Jan 3, 2025): Minority Leader designation (Jeffries) Congress.gov
  27. [27] HHS to Release an Additional $401.5 Million to Help Households with Home Energy Costs Administration for Children & Families (HHS)

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