119-SJRES-91 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

What the resolution does: S.J.Res. 91 uses the CRA to disapprove BLM’s December 2024 Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program ROD; CRA disapproval would make that ROD have no force or effect and would generally prevent BLM from reissuing a substantially similar decision without new statutory authorization. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — Congress.gov bill page[3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congre…

Expected direction of travel: Disapproval would remove the 2024 ROD’s access limits (which closed ~1.2 million of 1.56 million acres to leasing while meeting the 400,000‑acre statutory minimum) and align with recent Interior moves to reinstate a 2020 plan that opened the full Coastal Plain; however, immediate development remains constrained by weak bidder interest and ongoing legal/political volatility. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — Congress.gov bill page[5]S&P Global Commodity Insights — S&P Global: US Interior reopens ANWR Coastal Pl…[4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids

Key metrics

Sources: statutory and program scope; USGS assessment; EIA modeling; EPA emissions factor. [6]U.S. Department of the Interior — DOI press release (2020): Coastal Plain progr…[1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — Congress.gov bill page[7]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Fact Sheet (2001): ANWR 1002 area petroleum asses…[8]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA (2008): Analysis of Crude Oil Prod…[9]U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (archival snapshot) — EPA: Greenhouse Gas…

Economic Effects

Signals for markets, revenues, and employment are mixed; near-term impacts are modest while upside depends on discoveries, costs, and financing access.

• Access and acreage: Disapproval would negate the 2024 ROD’s closures (about 1.2 million acres off-limits) and remove its program constraints; Interior has already moved to reopen the full 1.56 million‑acre Coastal Plain by reinstating the 2020 plan. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — Congress.gov bill page[5]S&P Global Commodity Insights — S&P Global: US Interior reopens ANWR Coastal Pl…
• Lease activity to date: The January 2025 congressionally mandated sale offering ~400,000 acres drew no bids; the 2021 sale raised ~$14.4 million with state entities dominating. This suggests limited near-term operator appetite even if access broadens. [4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids[10]Oil & Gas Journal — Oil & Gas Journal: ANWR lease sale gets no bids (Jan. 9, 20…
• Statutory revenue split: Under Section 20001 of P.L. 115-97, leasing revenues (bonuses, rents, royalties) are shared 50/50 between Alaska and the federal government, with at least two lease sales of ≥400,000 acres each in areas of highest hydrocarbon potential. [11]Web search · turn 7 #1
• Production timing and price effects: Historic EIA modeling shows peak ANWR output could reach ~0.78 mb/d under a mean resource case, but with small effects on global oil prices (on the order of ~$0.75/bbl in mid‑2020s scenarios) and a modest reduction in import dependence; OPEC behavior could offset price effects. These are scenario estimates and timing would likely slip to the 2030s. [8]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA (2008): Analysis of Crude Oil Prod…
• TAPS and state economy: Higher North Slope throughput can extend Trans‑Alaska Pipeline viability and lower tariffs, which can keep marginal fields economic—an upside if significant discoveries occur. [8]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA (2008): Analysis of Crude Oil Prod…
• Financing headwinds: Several major U.S. banks and some insurers have policies restricting project financing or insurance for Arctic/ANWR drilling, raising cost of capital and execution risk irrespective of federal land access. [12]Web search · turn 13 #1[13]Web search · turn 13 #0[14]Web search · turn 13 #3

Social Effects

Impacts are uneven—benefits accrue locally if projects move forward, while risks concentrate on subsistence resources and culturally important landscapes.

• Indigenous perspectives are divided: Gwich’in communities oppose drilling due to reliance on the Porcupine caribou herd and the cultural significance of the Coastal Plain (Iizhik Gwats’an Gwandaii Goodlit). [15]Gwich’in Steering Committee — Gwich’in Steering Committee—Organization site
• North Slope Iñupiat organizations (e.g., Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat) emphasize self‑determination, jobs, and infrastructure from responsible development; local leaders attributed the 2025 no‑bid sale partly to federal constraints rather than lack of local support. [16]Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat — Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat—About[17]Anchorage Daily News — Anchorage Daily News: No bids at ANWR sale; statements f…
• Community-level economic exposure: If development proceeds, employment and contracting could benefit hub communities (e.g., Kaktovik, North Slope Borough), but benefits are contingent on commercial discoveries and partner capital. [18]Web search · turn 9 #5

Environmental Effects

Key risks involve habitat disturbance and lifecycle emissions; mitigation can reduce but not eliminate certain impacts.

• Habitat: The Coastal Plain is primary calving/nursery habitat for the Porcupine caribou herd and supports migratory birds and other Arctic species. Fragmentation and disturbance during sensitive periods drive risk. [19]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—Species o…
• Polar bear denning: Maternal dens occur on the Coastal Plain; studies document potential disturbance but also show that spatial/temporal restrictions and den‑detection protocols can sharply reduce den interactions. [20]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (1993): Human disturbances of denning polar bears…[21]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2020): Seismic survey design and impacts to mate…
• GHG footprint: Combustion of oil emits ~0.43 metric tons CO2 per barrel; total emissions scale with produced volumes (upstream methane and operational emissions add to this). [9]U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (archival snapshot) — EPA: Greenhouse Gas…

Temporal Analysis

Separate the near-term from the longer run.

1. Next 12–24 months: Even with CRA disapproval, tangible activity is likely limited by weak bidder participation, financing constraints, and litigation; operational lead times for seismic and appraisal push any development steps into winter seasons. [4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids[12]Web search · turn 13 #1
2. 2028–mid‑2030s: If commercial finds occur and capital aligns, development could proceed; expert testimony has long cautioned that material ANWR volumes are unlikely before ~2030, consistent with historical lead times on the North Slope. [22]Axios — Axios: IEA chief—Little ANWR oil expected before 2030 (2018)
3. Policy durability: CRA disapproval bars BLM from issuing a “substantially similar” replacement for the 2024 ROD absent new law, constraining future protective rulemakings for this program area. [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congre…

Unintended consequences and risks

• Regulatory whiplash: GAO’s determination that the 2024 ROD is a CRA‑covered rule invites further CRA use on public‑lands decisions, amplifying policy instability for investors and communities. [2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: Applicability of the CRA…
• Litigation exposure: Expanded leasing footprints raise ESA/NEPA challenges around caribou and polar bears, potentially delaying projects and raising costs. [19]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—Species o…[20]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (1993): Human disturbances of denning polar bears…
• Market response risk: Even with more access, bid rounds may continue to underperform if price, geology, and financing are unfavorable, limiting fiscal benefits. [4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids[10]Oil & Gas Journal — Oil & Gas Journal: ANWR lease sale gets no bids (Jan. 9, 20…

Assessment

Overall stance (analytical): Neutral. The resolution would likely expand leasing optionality by voiding the 2024 constraints and aligning policy with full‑area access, but near‑term economic gains look limited given recent no‑bid outcomes and financing headwinds; environmental and cultural risks center on well‑documented habitats where mitigation can reduce but not eliminate disturbance. Long‑run impacts are highly contingent on discoveries, capital costs, and court outcomes. [5]S&P Global Commodity Insights — S&P Global: US Interior reopens ANWR Coastal Pl…[4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids[12]Web search · turn 13 #1[19]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—Species o…

Sourcing

Core references used for this analysis.

• Congress.gov bill record and CRS summary for S.J.Res. 91; official text. [1]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — Congress.gov bill page[23]Web search · turn 0 #3
• GAO legal opinion (Aug. 25, 2025) finding the 2024 Coastal Plain ROD is a CRA “rule.” [2]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO B-337330: Applicability of the CRA…
• CRS on CRA mechanics, lookback, and “substantially the same” constraint. [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS Report R43992: The Congre…[24]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS Report R46690: CRA issues…
• BLM/DOI program materials on the Coastal Plain and the 2024 ROD. [25]Bureau of Land Management — BLM (Dec. 13, 2024): Notice of Availability—Coastal…[26]Web search · turn 10 #3
• USGS petroleum resource assessments for the 1002 Area. [7]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Fact Sheet (2001): ANWR 1002 area petroleum asses…
• EIA ANWR modeling (production, price, imports). [8]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA (2008): Analysis of Crude Oil Prod…
• Market signals: Reuters/OGJ/ADN coverage of the Jan. 2025 no‑bid sale; Reuters on March 2025 lease‑cancellation ruling. [4]Reuters — Reuters: Alaska wildlife refuge drilling auction yields no bids[10]Oil & Gas Journal — Oil & Gas Journal: ANWR lease sale gets no bids (Jan. 9, 20…[17]Anchorage Daily News — Anchorage Daily News: No bids at ANWR sale; statements f…[27]Reuters — Reuters: Judge rules 2023 ANWR lease cancellations unlawful (Mar. 26,…
• Interior/industry policy direction in late 2025 (reopening Coastal Plain/reinstating 2020 plan). [5]S&P Global Commodity Insights — S&P Global: US Interior reopens ANWR Coastal Pl…
• EPA emissions factor for oil combustion. [9]U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (archival snapshot) — EPA: Greenhouse Gas…
• Ecology: USFWS Arctic Refuge species overview; USGS literature on polar bear denning and mitigation. [19]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—Species o…[20]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (1993): Human disturbances of denning polar bears…[21]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS (2020): Seismic survey design and impacts to mate…
• Community perspectives: Gwich’in Steering Committee; Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat; local reporting. [15]Gwich’in Steering Committee — Gwich’in Steering Committee—Organization site[16]Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat — Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat—About[17]Anchorage Daily News — Anchorage Daily News: No bids at ANWR sale; statements f…